scholarly journals Variations of Upper-Ocean Salinity Associated with ENSO from PEODAS Reanalyses

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 2077-2094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Zhao ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Yonghong Yin ◽  
Oscar Alves
Keyword(s):  
Barrier Layer ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Extreme El Niño

Abstract Interannual variations of upper-ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific and relationships with ENSO are investigated using the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System (PEODAS) reanalyses. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals the systematic evolution of salinity and temperature during ENSO. EOF1 and EOF2 of both temperature and salinity capture the mature phase of El Niño and the discharge and recharge phase, respectively. Typical El Niño and La Niña evolution captured by the leading pair of EOFs depicts eastward or westward migration of the eastern edge of the warm/fresh pool in the western Pacific. Increased or decreased freshness in the western Pacific mixed layer occurs in the recharge/discharge phase. EOF3 captures extreme El Niño, when the strong positive temperature anomaly extends to the South American coast and the fresh pool detaches from the western Pacific and shifts into the central Pacific. Large loadings on EOF3 occurred only during 1982/83 and 1997/98, which suggests that eastern Pacific El Niño is actually the exception, whereas moderate central Pacific El Niño and La Niña are more typical. The eastward expansion of the warm/fresh pool during El Niño is also associated with a continuous eastward displacement of the barrier layer, indicating an active role of the barrier layer not just at the onset of an event. The barrier layer and fresh pool shift much farther eastward during strong El Niño, which could contribute to the eastward shift of strong events. The prior enhancement of the barrier layer in the western Pacific is also more concentrated and stronger, which might portend development of extreme El Niño.

scholarly journals Changes in Independency between Two Types of El Niño Events under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario in CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7561-7575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Yerim Jeong ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract This study uses archives from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate changes in independency between two types of El Niño events caused by greenhouse warming. In the observations, the independency between cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño events is distinctively increased in recent decades. The simulated changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events according to the CMIP5 models are quite diverse, although the observed features are simulated to some extent in several climate models. It is found that the climatological change after global warming is an essential factor in determining the changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events. For example, the independency between these events is increased after global warming when the climatological precipitation is increased mainly over the equatorial central Pacific. This climatological precipitation increase extends convective response to the east, particularly for CT El Niño events, which leads to greater differences in the spatial pattern between the two types of El Niño events to increase the El Niño independency. On the contrary, in models with decreased independency between the two types of El Niño events after global warming, climatological precipitation is increased mostly over the western Pacific. This confines the atmospheric response to the western Pacific in both El Niño events; therefore, the similarity between them is increased after global warming. In addition to the changes in the climatological state after global warming, a possible connection of the changes in the El Niño independency with the historical mean state is discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Western Pacific SST Prediction with an Intermediate El Niño Prediction Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (5) ◽  
pp. 1343-1352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
In-Sik Kang ◽  
Jong-Ghap Jhun
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract To improve forecasting skills in the western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the authors utilized and modified an intermediate El Niño prediction model. The original model does not have the major SST thermodynamics for western Pacific SST variability, so it cannot simulate interannual variation in the western Pacific correctly. Therefore, the authors have introduced some modifications, such as heat flux and vertical mixing, into the dynamical model in order to capture SST thermodynamics more realistically. The modified model has better forecast skill than the original one, not only for the western Pacific but also for the eastern-central Pacific. The model has predictive skill up to 6-months lead time as judged by a correlation exceeding 0.5.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Two Types of El Niño

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1919-1934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiong Chen ◽  
Jian Ling ◽  
Chongyin Li
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract Evolution characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño have been investigated. MJO activities are strengthened over the western Pacific during the predeveloping and developing phases of EP El Niño, but suppressed during the mature and decaying phases. In contrast, MJO activities do not show a clear relationship with CP El Niño before their occurrence over the western Pacific, but they increase over the central Pacific during the mature and decaying phases of CP El Niño. Lag correlation analyses further confirm that MJO activities over the western Pacific in boreal spring and early summer are closely related to EP El Niño up to 2–11 months later, but not for CP El Niño. EP El Niño tends to weaken the MJO and lead to a much shorter range of its eastward propagation. Anomalous descending motions over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific related to El Niño can suppress convection and moisture flux convergence there and weaken MJO activities over these regions during the mature phase of both types of El Niño. MJO activities over the western Pacific are much weaker in EP El Niño due to the stronger anomalous descending motions. Furthermore, the MJO propagates more continuously and farther eastward during CP El Niño because of robust moisture convergence over the central Pacific, which provides adequate moisture for the development of MJO convection.

scholarly journals Biophysical responses near equatorial islands in the Western Pacific Ocean during El Niño/La Niña transitions

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (20) ◽  
pp. 5473-5479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle M. Gierach ◽  
Monique Messié ◽  
Tong Lee ◽  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Marie-Hélène Radenac
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Western Pacific

scholarly journals Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (45) ◽  
pp. 22512-22517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Wang ◽  
Xiao Luo ◽  
Young-Min Yang ◽  
Weiyi Sun ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Historical Change ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.

scholarly journals ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 2013-2026 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. G. Pavlakis ◽  
D. Hatzidimitriou ◽  
E. Drakakis ◽  
C. Matsoukas ◽  
A. Fotiadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Downwelling Longwave Radiation ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract. We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net) over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text), for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E). There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E) these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004) distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W) for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the thermal radiative cooling over Indonesia is enhanced by 10 Wm−2 during the early (August–September–October) El Niño phase.

scholarly journals Interactive Feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1784-1801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract A feedback process of the Indian Ocean SST on ENSO is investigated by using observed data and atmospheric GCM. It is suggested that warming in the Indian Ocean produces an easterly wind stress anomaly over Indonesia and the western edge of the Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño. The anomalous easterly wind in the western Pacific during El Niño helps a rapid termination of El Niño and a fast transition to La Niña by generating upwelling Kelvin waves. Thus, warming in the Indian Ocean, which is a part of the El Niño signal, operates as a negative feedback mechanism to ENSO. This Indian Ocean feedback appears to operate mostly for relatively strong El Niños and results in a La Niña one year after the mature phase of the El Niño. This 1-yr period of phase transition implies a possible role of Indian Ocean–ENSO coupling in the biennial tendency of the ENSO. Atmospheric GCM experiments show that Indian Ocean SST forcing is mostly responsible for the easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific.

scholarly journals Differences in the Reaction of North Equatorial Countercurrent to the Developing and Mature Phase of ENSO Events in the Western Pacific Ocean

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Yusuf Jati Wijaya ◽  
Yukiharu Hisaki
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific Ocean ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
La Nina ◽  
La Nina Event ◽  
The Western Pacific

The North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) is an eastward zonal current closely related to an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. This paper investigated the variations of NECC in the Western Pacific Ocean over 25 years (1993–2017) using satellite data provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and the Remote Sensing System (RSS). The first mode of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis showed that the NECC strengthened or weakened in each El Niño (La Niña) event during the developing or mature phase, respectively. We also found that the NECC shifting was strongly coincidental with an ENSO event. During the developing phase of an El Niño (La Niña) event, the NECC shifted southward (northward), and afterward, when it entered the mature phase, the NECC tended to shift slightly northward (southward). Moreover, the NECC strength was found to have undergone a weakening during the 2008–2017 period.

scholarly journals Simple stochastic model for El Niño with westerly wind bursts

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (37) ◽  
pp. 10245-10250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sulian Thual ◽  
Andrew J. Majda ◽  
Nan Chen ◽  
Samuel N. Stechmann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Burst Activity ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Wind Bursts ◽  
The Western Pacific

Atmospheric wind bursts in the tropics play a key role in the dynamics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple modeling framework is proposed that summarizes this relationship and captures major features of the observational record while remaining physically consistent and amenable to detailed analysis. Within this simple framework, wind burst activity evolves according to a stochastic two-state Markov switching–diffusion process that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool, and is coupled to simple ocean–atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, stable, and linear. A simple model with this parameterization and no additional nonlinearities reproduces a realistic ENSO cycle with intermittent El Niño and La Niña events of varying intensity and strength as well as realistic buildup and shutdown of wind burst activity in the western Pacific. The wind burst activity has a direct causal effect on the ENSO variability: in particular, it intermittently triggers regular El Niño or La Niña events, super El Niño events, or no events at all, which enables the model to capture observed ENSO statistics such as the probability density function and power spectrum of eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The present framework provides further theoretical and practical insight on the relationship between wind burst activity and the ENSO.

scholarly journals A Coupled GCM Analysis of MJO Activity at the Onset of El Niño

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 966-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Marshall ◽  
O. Alves ◽  
H. H. Hendon
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract The ocean dynamics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its interaction with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are assessed using a flux-corrected coupled model experiment from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The model demonstrates the correct oceanic Kelvin wave response to the MJO-related westerly winds in the western Pacific. Although there may be a role for the MJO in influencing the strength of El Niño, its impact is difficult to separate from that of strong heat content preconditioning of ENSO. Hence, the MJO–ENSO relationship is assessed starting from a background state of low heat content anomalies in the western Pacific that are also characteristic of recent observed El Niño events. The model shows a strong relationship between ENSO and the MJO near the peak of El Niño. At this time, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is largest in the central Pacific, and it is difficult to separate cause and effect. Near the onset of El Niño, however, when Pacific Ocean SST anomalies are near zero, an increase in MJO activity is associated with Kelvin wave activity and stronger subsequent ENSO warming. A significant increase in the number of MJO events, rather than the strength of individual MJO events, leads to stronger eastern Pacific warming; the MJO appears not to be responsible for the occurrence of El Niño itself, but, rather, is important for influencing its development thus. This research supports a role for downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves and subsequent deepening of the thermocline in contributing to eastern Pacific warming during the onset of El Niño.

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