Transient climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss with two ice-constraining methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-50
Author(s):  
Amélie Simon ◽  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Clément Rousset ◽  
Francis Codron
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Conductivity ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

AbstractThe impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the ocean and atmosphere is investigated focusing on a gradual reduction of Arctic sea-ice by 20% on annual mean, occurring within 30 years, starting from present-day conditions. Two ice-constraining methods are explored to melt Arctic sea-ice in a coupled climate model, while keeping present-day conditions for external forcing. The first method uses a reduction of sea-ice albedo, which modifies the incoming surface shortwave radiation. The second method uses a reduction of thermal conductivity, which changes the heat conduction flux inside ice. Reduced thermal conductivity inhibits oceanic cooling in winter and sea-ice basal growth, reducing seasonality of sea-ice thickness. For similar Arctic sea-ice area loss, decreasing the albedo induces larger Arctic warming than reducing the conductivity, especially in spring. Both ice-constraining methods produce similar climate impacts, but with smaller anomalies when reducing the conductivity. In the Arctic, the sea-ice loss leads to an increase of the North Atlantic water inflow in the Barents Sea and Eastern Arctic, while the salinity decreases and the gyre intensifies in the Beaufort Sea. In the North Atlantic, the subtropical gyre shifts southward and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakens. A dipole of sea-level pressure anomalies sets up in winter over Northern Siberia and the North Atlantic, which resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the tropics, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southward as the South Atlantic Ocean warms. In addition, Walker circulation reorganizes and the Southeastern Pacific Ocean cools.

scholarly journals Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 307-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Sedláček ◽  
Reto Knutti ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Urs Beyerle
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

scholarly journals Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation drive the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
kunhui Ye ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>The wintertime warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990-2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic-Northern Eurasian sector which displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from anomalies in Arctic sea-ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and North Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in the PC1/PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by the PC1, and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region and North Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux towards the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. It weakens warm advection and enhances advection of Arctic cold airmass towards Eurasia.</p>

scholarly journals Two Leading Modes of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Recent Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Temperature Pattern

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5565-5587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunhui Ye ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractThe wintertime warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990–2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia, and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic–northern Eurasian sector that displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from variability in Arctic sea ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency, while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and north Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in PC1 and PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by PC1 and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region, and north Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux toward the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. This also weakens warm advection and enhances advection of cold Arctic airmasses towards Eurasia.

scholarly journals The Mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Slowdown Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 977-996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Alexey Fedorov ◽  
Florian Sévellec
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

We explore the mechanisms by which Arctic sea ice decline affects the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a suite of numerical experiments perturbing the Arctic sea ice radiative budget within a fully coupled climate model. The imposed perturbations act to increase the amount of heat available to melt ice, leading to a rapid Arctic sea ice retreat within 5 years after the perturbations are activated. In response, the AMOC gradually weakens over the next ~100 years. The AMOC changes can be explained by the accumulation in the Arctic and subsequent downstream propagation to the North Atlantic of buoyancy anomalies controlled by temperature and salinity. Initially, during the first decade or so, the Arctic sea ice loss results in anomalous positive heat and salinity fluxes in the subpolar North Atlantic, inducing positive temperature and salinity anomalies over the regions of oceanic deep convection. At first, these anomalies largely compensate one another, leading to a minimal change in upper ocean density and deep convection in the North Atlantic. Over the following years, however, more anomalous warm water accumulates in the Arctic and spreads to the North Atlantic. At the same time, freshwater that accumulates from seasonal sea ice melting over most of the upper Arctic Ocean also spreads southward, reaching as far as south of Iceland. These warm and fresh anomalies reduce upper ocean density and suppress oceanic deep convection. The thermal and haline contributions to these buoyancy anomalies, and therefore to the AMOC slowdown during this period, are found to have similar magnitudes. We also find that the related changes in horizontal wind-driven circulation could potentially push freshwater away from the deep convection areas and hence strengthen the AMOC, but this effect is overwhelmed by mean advection.

scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice Patterns Driven by the Asian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9097-9112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Grunseich ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The fluctuation of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) has been associated with changes in ocean circulation, ecology, and Northern Hemisphere climate. Prediction of sea ice melting patterns is of great societal interest, but such prediction remains difficult because the factors controlling year-to-year sea ice variability remain unresolved. Distinct monsoon–Arctic teleconnections modulate summer Arctic SIC largely by changing wind-forced sea ice transport. East Asian monsoon rainfall produces a northward-propagating meridional Rossby wave train extending into the Siberian Arctic. The Indian summer monsoon excites an eastward-propagating circumglobal teleconnection along the subtropical jet, reaching the North Atlantic before bifurcating into the Arctic. The remote Asian monsoon variations induce a dominant dipole sea ice melt pattern in which the North Atlantic–European Arctic contrasts with the Siberian–North American Arctic. The monsoon-related sea ice variations are complementary and comparable in magnitude to locally forced Arctic Oscillation variability. The monsoon–Arctic link will improve seasonal prediction of summer Arctic sea ice and possibly explain long-term sea ice trends associated with the projected increase in Asian monsoon rainfall over the next century.

scholarly journals Sea ice-air interactions amplify multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Jiechun Deng
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Winter surface air temperature (Tas) over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) and other Arctic regions has experienced rapid warming since the late 1990 that has been linked to the concurring cooling over Eurasia1-3. However, the cause of this accelerated BKS warming is not well understood, and whether and how internal variability may have contributed to this warming is unclear. Through analyses of observations and model simulations, we show that two-way interactions between sea ice and air amplify multidecadal variability in Arctic sea-ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperatures (SST) from the North Atlantic to BKS, and produce large multidecadal variations in Tas over the BKS, Greenland-Norwegian Seas and Baffin Bay. Advection of SST anomalies from the North Atlantic to the Arctic causes SIC to change, which produces large anomalies in surface energy fluxes and Tas. However, the sea ice-air interactions also amplify the variations in SIC and SST, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mainly through local surface fluxes. When sea ice is fixed or melts away under increasing CO2, not only Arctic Tas multidecadal variations disappear, but also the SIC, SST and AMOC variations are greatly reduced. The results suggest that sea ice-air interactions are vital for multidecadal climate variability not only in the Arctic but also in the North Atlantic, similar to air-sea interactions for tropical climate. As Arctic sea ice is projected to melt away4,5, these interactions and thus multidecadal variability from the North Atlantic to the Arctic will likely weaken in the coming decades.

scholarly journals Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

Polar Science ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 9-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berit Crasemann ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Ralf Jaiser ◽  
Klaus Dethloff ◽  
Tetsu Nakamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
Eurasian Region

AMOC instability during the Last Inerglacial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Kessler ◽  
Didier Roche ◽  
Eirik Galaasen ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra ◽  
Nathaelle Bouttes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Multiple evidences from the analysis of satellite, in-situ and proxy data show that the climate is already changing toward a warmer Earth System due to our emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. However, the magnitude and the extent of changes remain difficult to predict. A change in the ocean thermohaline circulation and its consequences for climate, such as drought, regional sea-level and ocean carbon uptake remain under debate as this circulation has been long thought to be stable during warm Earth periods – Interglacials. However, recent high-resolution reconstructions of carbon isotopes (δ<sup>13</sup>C) from the deep North Atlantic challenge this idea of stability and point toward abrupt modifications in the ocean interior biogeochemistry and/or ocean thermohaline circulation during the Last Interglacial (LIG, 125ka – 115ka).</p><p> </p><p>Our model simulation of the LIG reproduces the observed magnitude and timescale of the reconstructed variations of δ<sup>13</sup>C, highlighting crucial dynamical changes in two regions of the North Atlantic deep-water formation (south of Greenland and south of Svalbard). These regions are found to drive the variations in the strength of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) when the Arctic sea-ice extent is perturbed.</p><p> </p><p>Our study suggests that the AMOC may have experienced great instability phase during some parts of the LIG. The water mass geometry reorganization from the warm onset at 125ka to the glacial inception at 115ka could also have greatly impacted the distribution of carbon in the interior Ocean. Changes in sea-ice cover either south of Svalbard or in the Southern Ocean seem to play a determining role. However, in our global warming context, our study suggests that the mechanisms responsible for the LIG AMOC instability of the LIG may not occur by the end of the century if the Arctic sea-ice retreats from the high latitudes of the North Atlantic as projected by climate models.</p><p> </p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document