Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

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Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation drive the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9705 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

kunhui Ye ◽

Gabriele Messori

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Downward Longwave Radiation ◽

North Asia ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The North Atlantic

The wintertime warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990-2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic-Northern Eurasian sector which displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from anomalies in Arctic sea-ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and North Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in the PC1/PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by the PC1, and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region and North Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux towards the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. It weakens warm advection and enhances advection of Arctic cold airmass towards Eurasia.

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Two Leading Modes of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Recent Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Temperature Pattern

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0403.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (13) ◽

pp. 5565-5587 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kunhui Ye ◽

Gabriele Messori

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Downward Longwave Radiation ◽

North Asia ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The North Atlantic

AbstractThe wintertime warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990–2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia, and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic–northern Eurasian sector that displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from variability in Arctic sea ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency, while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and north Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in PC1 and PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by PC1 and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region, and north Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux toward the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. This also weakens warm advection and enhances advection of cold Arctic airmasses towards Eurasia.

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Transient climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss with two ice-constraining methods

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0288.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-50

Author(s):

Amélie Simon ◽

Guillaume Gastineau ◽

Claude Frankignoul ◽

Clément Rousset ◽

Francis Codron

Keyword(s):

Thermal Conductivity ◽

Sea Ice ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Loss

AbstractThe impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the ocean and atmosphere is investigated focusing on a gradual reduction of Arctic sea-ice by 20% on annual mean, occurring within 30 years, starting from present-day conditions. Two ice-constraining methods are explored to melt Arctic sea-ice in a coupled climate model, while keeping present-day conditions for external forcing. The first method uses a reduction of sea-ice albedo, which modifies the incoming surface shortwave radiation. The second method uses a reduction of thermal conductivity, which changes the heat conduction flux inside ice. Reduced thermal conductivity inhibits oceanic cooling in winter and sea-ice basal growth, reducing seasonality of sea-ice thickness. For similar Arctic sea-ice area loss, decreasing the albedo induces larger Arctic warming than reducing the conductivity, especially in spring. Both ice-constraining methods produce similar climate impacts, but with smaller anomalies when reducing the conductivity. In the Arctic, the sea-ice loss leads to an increase of the North Atlantic water inflow in the Barents Sea and Eastern Arctic, while the salinity decreases and the gyre intensifies in the Beaufort Sea. In the North Atlantic, the subtropical gyre shifts southward and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakens. A dipole of sea-level pressure anomalies sets up in winter over Northern Siberia and the North Atlantic, which resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the tropics, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southward as the South Atlantic Ocean warms. In addition, Walker circulation reorganizes and the Southeastern Pacific Ocean cools.

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Atmospheric, oceanic, and sea-ice variability along Nares Strait: a numerical model study

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12212 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yarisbel Garcia Quintana ◽

Paul G. Myers ◽

Kent Moore

Keyword(s):

Numerical Model ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

North Atlantic ◽

The Other ◽

The Arctic ◽

Nares Strait ◽

The North ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

The North Atlantic

Nares Strait, between Greenland and Ellesmere Island, is one of the main pathways connecting the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. The multi-year sea ice that is transported through the strait plays an important role in the mass balance of Arctic sea-ice as well as influencing the climate of the North Atlantic region. This transport is modulated by the formation of ice arches that form at the southern and northern of the strait.&#160; The arches also play an important role in the maintenance of the North Water Polynya (NOW) that forms at the southern end of the strait. The NOW is one of the largest and most productive of Arctic polynyas.&#160;Given its significance, we use an eddy-permitting regional configuration of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) to explore sea-ice variability along Nares Strait, from 2002 to 2019.&#160;The model is coupled with the Louvain-la-Neuve (LIM2) sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic numerical model and is forced by the Canadian Meteorological Centre&#8217;s Global Deterministic Prediction System Reforecasts.We use the model to explore the variability in ocean and sea ice characteristics along Nares Strait. The positive and negative degree days, measures of ice decay and growth, along the strait are consistent with the warming that the region is experiencing. Sea-ice production/decay did not show any significant change other than an enhanced decay during the summers of 2017-1019. Sea-ice thickness on the other hand has decreased significantly since 2007. This decrease has been more pronounced along the northern (north of Kane Basin) portion of the strait. What is more, ocean model data indicates that since 2007 the northern Nares Strait upper 100m layer has become fresher, indicating an increase in the freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean and through the strait. The southern portion of the strait, on the other hand, has become warmer and saltier, which would be consistent with an influx of Irminger Water as proposed by previous modelling results. These changes could impact the formation and stability of the ice arch and hence the cessation of ice transport down Nares Strait as well as contributing to changes in the characteristics of the NOW.&#160;

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The Mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Slowdown Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0231.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (4) ◽

pp. 977-996 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Wei Liu ◽

Alexey Fedorov ◽

Florian Sévellec

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Deep Convection ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Meridional Overturning ◽

The North Atlantic

We explore the mechanisms by which Arctic sea ice decline affects the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a suite of numerical experiments perturbing the Arctic sea ice radiative budget within a fully coupled climate model. The imposed perturbations act to increase the amount of heat available to melt ice, leading to a rapid Arctic sea ice retreat within 5 years after the perturbations are activated. In response, the AMOC gradually weakens over the next ~100 years. The AMOC changes can be explained by the accumulation in the Arctic and subsequent downstream propagation to the North Atlantic of buoyancy anomalies controlled by temperature and salinity. Initially, during the first decade or so, the Arctic sea ice loss results in anomalous positive heat and salinity fluxes in the subpolar North Atlantic, inducing positive temperature and salinity anomalies over the regions of oceanic deep convection. At first, these anomalies largely compensate one another, leading to a minimal change in upper ocean density and deep convection in the North Atlantic. Over the following years, however, more anomalous warm water accumulates in the Arctic and spreads to the North Atlantic. At the same time, freshwater that accumulates from seasonal sea ice melting over most of the upper Arctic Ocean also spreads southward, reaching as far as south of Iceland. These warm and fresh anomalies reduce upper ocean density and suppress oceanic deep convection. The thermal and haline contributions to these buoyancy anomalies, and therefore to the AMOC slowdown during this period, are found to have similar magnitudes. We also find that the related changes in horizontal wind-driven circulation could potentially push freshwater away from the deep convection areas and hence strengthen the AMOC, but this effect is overwhelmed by mean advection.

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The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-433-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 433-452 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Alek A. Petty ◽

Julienne C. Stroeve ◽

Paul R. Holland ◽

Linette N. Boisvert ◽

Angela C. Bliss ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Atlantic Sector ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.

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Arctic Sea Ice and Freshwater Changes Driven by the Atmospheric Leading Mode in a Coupled Sea Ice–Ocean Model

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2758.1 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 16 (13) ◽

pp. 2159-2177 ◽

Cited By ~ 61

Author(s):

Xiangdong Zhang ◽

Moto Ikeda ◽

John E. Walsh

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Siberian River ◽

The North ◽

New Findings ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have indicated recent large changes of sea ice and hydrographic properties in the Arctic Ocean. However, the observational database is sufficiently sparse that the mechanisms responsible for the recent changes are not fully understood. A coupled Arctic ocean–sea ice model forced by output from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is employed to investigate the role that the leading atmospheric mode has played in the recent changes of the Arctic Ocean. A modified Arctic Oscillation (AO) index is derived for the region poleward of 62.5°N in order to avoid ambiguities in the distinction between the conventional AO and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The model results indicate that the AO is the driver of many of the changes manifested in the recent observations. The model shows reductions of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 3.2% and 8.8%, respectively, when the AO changes from its negative to its positive phase. Concurrently, freshwater storage decreases by about 2%, while the sea ice and freshwater exports via Fram Strait increase substantially. The changes of sea ice and freshwater storage are strikingly asymmetric between the east and the west Arctic. Notable new findings include 1) the interaction of the dynamic and thermodynamic responses in the sense that changes of sea ice growth and melt are driven by, and feed back negatively to, the dynamically (transport) driven changes of sea ice volume; and 2) the compatibility of the associated freshwater changes with recently observed changes in the salinity of the upper Arctic Ocean, thereby explaining the observed salinity variations by a mechanism that is distinct from, but complementary to, the altered circulation of Siberian river water. In addition, the enhanced freshwater export could be a contributing factor to the increased salinity in the Arctic Ocean. The results of the simulations indicate that Arctic sea ice and freshwater distributions change substantially if one phase of the AO predominates over a decadal timescale. However, such results are based on an idealization of the real-world situation, in which the pattern of forcing varies interannually and the number of positive-AO years varies among decades.

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