Scandinavian Forest Fire Activity Correlates with Proxies of the Baffin Bay Ice Cover

Understanding factors driving fire activity helps reveal the degree and geographical variability in the resilience of boreal vegetation to large scale climate forces. We studied the association between sea ice cover in the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea and observational records of forest fires in two Nordic countries (Norway and Sweden) over 1913–2017. We found a positive correlation between ice proxies and regional fire activity records suggesting that the Arctic climate and the associated changes in North Atlantic circulation exercise an important control on the levels of fire activity in Scandinavia. Changes in the sea cover are likely correlated with the dynamic of the North Atlantic Current. These dynamics may favor the development of the drought conditions in Scandinavia through promoting persistent high-pressure systems over the Scandinavian boreal zone during the spring and summer. These periods are, in turn, associated with an increased water deficit in forest fuels, leading to a regionally increased fire hazard. The Arctic climate will likely be an important future control of the boreal fire activity in the Nordic region.

Variations in the radiothermal radiation of the ice cover of Lake Arakhley as a geo-indicator of deformation and cracking

In January-March, 2020-2021, radiophysical studies were conducted of radiothermal radiation intensity for the testing site for Lake Arakhley, Transbaikalia, Russia. The set of equipment consisting of four microwave radiometers for the wavelengths from 0.3 to 2 cm was placed on the shore of the lake mounted on a stationary platform. The temperature and deformation of ice were simultaneously measured at the depth of 0.4 meters in two orthogonal directions: west-east and north-south. The temperature was measured with heat gauges in a vertical profile at the depths of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 40 cm. In the process of contact measurements in the period of cracking, signal impulses were recorded in the channel of the deformation sensor placed in the direction of the lake center (west-east). The measurement results were used in monitoring of the condition of the water body. It turned out that in the periods of registering the deformation impulses, changes in the radio brightness temperature and decrease in the ice temperature were observed. The microwave characteristics correlate with the temperature and deformation of the ice cover and may serve as an indicator of the meteorological conditions of the region.

Wave-triggered breakup in the marginal ice zone generates lognormal floe size distributions

Fragmentation of the sea ice cover by ocean waves is an important mechanism impacting ice evolution. Fractured ice is more sensitive to melt, leading to a local reduction in ice concentration, facilitating wave propagation. A positive feedback loop, accelerating sea ice retreat, is then introduced. Despite recent efforts to incorporate this process and the resulting floe size distribution (FSD) into the sea ice components of global climate models (GCM), the physics governing ice breakup under wave action remains poorly understood, and its parametrisation highly simplified. We propose a two-dimensional numerical model of wave-induced sea ice breakup to estimate the FSD resulting from repeated fracture events. This model, based on linear water wave theory and viscoelastic sea ice rheology, solves for the scattering of an incoming time-harmonic wave by the ice cover and derives the corresponding strain field. Fracture occurs when the strain exceeds an empirical threshold. The geometry is then updated for the next iteration of the breakup procedure. The resulting FSD is analysed for both monochromatic and polychromatic forcings. For the latter results, FSDs obtained for discrete frequencies are combined appropriately following a prescribed wave spectrum. We find that under realistic wave forcing, lognormal FSDs emerge consistently in a large variety of model configurations. Care is taken to evaluate the statistical significance of this finding. This result contrasts with the power-law FSD behaviour often assumed by modellers. We discuss the properties of these modelled distributions, with respect to the ice rheological properties and the forcing waves. The projected output will be used to improve empirical parametrisations used to couple sea ice and ocean waves GCM components.

Drone Surveying of Volumetric Ice Growth in a Steep River

Representative ice thickness data is essential for accurate hydraulic modelling, assessing the potential for ice induced floods, understanding environmental conditions during winter and estimation of ice-run forces. Steep rivers exhibit complex freeze-up behaviour combining formation of columnar ice with successions of anchor ice dams to build a complete ice cover, resulting in an ice cover with complex geometry. For such ice covers traditional single point measurements are unrepresentative. Gathering sufficiently distributed measurements for representativeness is labour intensive and at times impossible with hard to access ice. Structure from Motion (SfM) software and low-cost drones have enabled river ice mapping without the need to directly access the ice, thereby reducing both the workload and the potential danger in accessing the ice. In this paper we show how drone-based photography can be used to efficiently survey river ice and how these photographic surveys can be processed into digital elevation models (DEMs) using Structure from Motion. We also show how DEMs of the riverbed, riverbanks and ice conditions can be used to deduce ice volume and ice thickness distributions. A QGIS plugin has been implemented to automate these tasks. These techniques are demonstrated with a survey of a stretch of the river Sokna in Trøndelag, Norway. The survey was carried out during the winter 2020–2021 at various stages of freeze-up using a simple quadcopter with camera. The 500 m stretch of river studied was estimated to have an ice volume of up to 8.6 × 103 m3 (This corresponds to an average ice thickness of ∼67 cm) during the full ice cover condition of which up to 7.2 × 103 m3 (This corresponds to an average ice thickness of ∼57 cm) could be anchor ice. Ground Control Points were measured with an RTK-GPS and used to determine that the accuracy of these ice surface geometry measurements lie between 0.03 and 0.09 m. The ice thicknesses estimated through the SfM methods are on average 18 cm thicker than the manual measurements. Primarily due to the SfM methods inability to detect suspended ice covers. This paper highlights the need to develop better ways of estimating the volume of air beneath suspended ice covers.

Autonomous System for Lake Ice Monitoring

Continuous monitoring of ice cover belongs to the key tasks of modern climate research, providing up-to-date information on climate change in cold regions. While a strong advance in ice monitoring worldwide has been provided by the recent development of remote sensing methods, quantification of seasonal ice cover is impossible without on-site autonomous measurements of the mass and heat budget. In the present study, we propose an autonomous monitoring system for continuous in situ measuring of vertical temperature distribution in the near-ice air, the ice strata and the under-ice water layer for several months with simultaneous records of solar radiation incoming at the lake surface and passing through the snow and ice covers as well as snow and ice thicknesses. The use of modern miniature analog and digital sensors made it possible to make a compact, energy efficient measurement system with high precision and spatial resolution and characterized by easy deployment and transportation. In particular, the high resolution of the ice thickness probe of 0.05 mm allows to resolve the fine-scale processes occurring in low-flow environments, such as freshwater lakes. Several systems were tested in numerous studies in Lake Baikal and demonstrated a high reliability in deriving the ice heat balance components during ice-covered periods.

Parameterization of submesoscale mixed layer restratification under sea ice

Commonly used parameterization of mixed layer instabilities in general circulation models (Fox-Kemper and Ferrari 2008a) was developed for temperate oceans and does not take into account the presence of sea ice in any way. However, the ice-ocean drag provides a strong mechanical coupling between the sea ice and the surface ocean currents and hence may affect mixed layer restratification processes. Here we use idealized simulations of mixed layer instabilities to demonstrate that the sea ice dramatically suppresses the eddy-driven overturning in the mixed layer by dissipating the eddy kinetic energy generated during instabilities. Considering the commonly-used viscous-plastic sea ice rheology, we developed an improvement to the existing mixed layer overturning parameterization, making it explicitly dependent on sea ice concentration. Below the critical sea ice concentration of about 0.68, the internal sea ice stresses are very weak and the conventional parameterization holds. At higher concentrations, the sea ice cover starts acting as a nearly-immobile surface lid, inducing strong dissipation of submesoscale eddies and reducing the intensity of the restratification streamfunction up to a factor of 4 for a fully ice-covered ocean. Our findings suggest that climate projection models might be exaggerating the restratification processes under sea ice, which could contribute to biases in mixed layer depth, salinity, ice-ocean heat fluxes, and sea ice cover.

Remote sensing of multiyear ice in the Antarctic

<p>The changing sea ice cover of polar seas is of key importance for the exchange of heat and moisture between atmosphere and ocean and hence for weather and climate, and in addition, the sea ice and its long-term changes are  an indicator for global change.  In order to properly understand and model the evolution of the sea ice cover and its interaction with the global climate system, we need detailed knowledge about sea ice, i.e., not only its extent, but also, e.g., its thickness and its type.</p> <p>We can broadly distinguish a few different sea ice types that have different dynamic and thermodynamic properties, namely: young ice (YI, thin/smooth new ice), first-year ice (FYI, formed during one cold season), and multiyear ice (MYI, which has survived at least one melt season). The  latter is of particular interest as it is usually thicker than other ice types (thus, takes more time to melt), much less saline, and may accommodate a unique ecosystem. Sea ice types in the Antarctic, until recently, have not been monitored much because of the lack of appropriate remote  sensing methods. While the Antarctic sea ice is greatly dominated by FYI, there are, nevertheless, considerable amounts of MYI, in particular in the Weddell Sea.</p> <p>We have recently adapted an algorithm for the detection of Arctic sea ice types for application in the Antarctic. The algorithm uses data from space-borne microwave radiometers and scatterometers as input. So far we have compiled a time series of daily Antarctic MYI data (and also an estimate of YI and FYI) data at a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, starting in 2013, but excluding the melt seasons when the algorithm does not work. Here give an overview of the data, showing, e.g., the quite large interannual variability of MYI and its evolution in the Weddell Sea, and discuss shortcomings of the algorithm and possible ways forward. The time series of daily Antarctic MYI data can in principle be extended backwards to the year 2000, when the used satellite data first became available, and with planned future satellite missions, it can be continued for years to come.</p>