scholarly journals Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-49

Abstract In this study, we examine the wintertime environmental precursors of summer anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) over the North Atlantic region and assess the applicability of these precursors in predicting AWB impacts on seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We show that predictors representing the environmental impacts of subtropical AWB on seasonal TC activity improve the skill of extended-range seasonal forecasts of TC activity. There is a significant correlation between boreal winter and boreal summer AWB activity via AWB-forced phases of the quasi-stationary North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Years with above-normal boreal summer AWB activity over the North Atlantic region also show above-normal AWB activity in the preceding boreal winter that tends to force a positive phase of the NAO that persists through the spring. These conditions are sustained by continued AWB throughout the year, particularly when El Niño-Southern Oscillation plays less of a role at forcing the large-scale circulation. While individual AWB events are synoptic and nonlinear with little predictability beyond 8-10 days, the strong dynamical connection between winter and summer wave breaking lends enough persistence to AWB activity to enable predictability of its potential impacts on TC activity. We find that the winter-summer relationship improves the skill of extended-range seasonal forecasts from as early as an April lead time, particularly for years when wave breaking has played a crucial role in suppressing TC development.

1998 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Amorosi ◽  
Paul C. Buckland ◽  
Kevin J. Edwards ◽  
Ingrid Mainland ◽  
Tom H. McGovern ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Crossley ◽  
Christopher A. Skilbeck

This article describes a study of Tripleurospermum maritimum (L.) W.D.J. Koch and T. inodorum (L.) Sch. Bip. (Asteraceae) in the Orkney Islands (v.c.111), the results of which suggest that intermediates between these taxa may be rather common, and that T. maritimum subsp. nigriceps and subsp. maritimum are both involved, the former more frequently. Obviously this results in a complex taxonomic situation, evidently not confined to Orkney in the far north. Key identifying characters of the taxa are systematically examined and guidance offered on determining hybrids using a population level approach. The taxonomic complexities of these northern populations are discussed, with regard in particular to the identity of T. inodorum occurring there and the place of T. maritimum subsp. nigrescens in the forms and subspecies of T. maritimum found in the north Atlantic region.


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