scholarly journals External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (14) ◽  
pp. 2155-2182
Author(s):  
Nicholas Sambanis ◽  
Stergios Skaperdas ◽  
William Wohlforth
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Civil War ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Previous Literature ◽  
Ethnic Identification ◽  
Ethnic Entrepreneurs ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
Ethnic Polarization ◽  
External Intervention

We examine how external intervention interacts with ethnic polarization to induce rebellion and civil war. Previous literature views polarization as internally produced—the result of demographic characteristics or intergroup differences made salient by ethnic entrepreneurs. We complement these approaches by showing that polarization is also affected by international politics. We model intervention’s effect on civil war via the pathway of ethnic identification—a mechanism not previously identified in the literature. In our model, local actors representing different groups are emboldened by foreign patrons to pursue their objectives violently. This, in turn, makes ethnic identity salient and induces polarization. Without the specter of intervention, polarization is often insufficient to induce war and, in turn, in the absence of polarization, intervention is insufficient to induce war. We illustrate the model with case evidence from Ukraine.

Lebanon’s October 2019 Uprising

2021 ◽  
pp. 436-445
Author(s):  
Karim Makdisi
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
The State ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Ruling Class ◽  
Neoliberal Reforms ◽  
Ponzi Scheme ◽  
Neoliberal Policies ◽  
One Year ◽  
External Intervention

This essay frames Lebanon’s October 2019 uprising as triggered by the government’s announcement of a series of regressive taxes. After fifteen years of civil war (1975–90) and three decades of postwar neoliberal policies, people rose up against a kleptocratic ruling class of sectarian leaders and financiers that had captured and bankrupted the state through a nationwide Ponzi scheme. The essay charts the uprising’s demise amid protestor division, mass poverty and unemployment, galloping inflation, palpable insecurity, COVID-19 lockdowns, and external intervention. Hizbullah became the elephant in the room, with sectarian tension and some protestor resentment stoked by Trump’s US “maximum pressure” policies. A massive blast in Beirut’s port prompted French President “Papa” Macron to personally unveil a stabilization plan through IMF neoliberal reforms, a carrot to Trump’s stick. The essay concludes that, one year on, Macron’s neoliberal plan is the only game in town, and protestors need to urgently remobilize for the struggles ahead.

Kto Kovo? Tribes and jihad in Pushtun Lands

2018 ◽  
pp. 33-58
Author(s):  
Mike Martin
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Nation Building ◽  
Interview Data ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Relationship

Based on interview data from Helmand Province, Afghanistan, this chapter explores the relationship between tribalism and jihadism from 1978-2015. The authors argue that local actors, predominantly tribal, have taken on the mantles of different jihadi organizations in order to gain funding as a way of increasing their leverage in local conflicts with other actors. This relationship holds true in Helmand through the ‘jihad’ against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, the civil war, the Taliban era, and the post-2001 US-led nation-building period. The author concludes that jihadi organizations, or other external organizations, need to understand and work with tribal dynamics in order to achieve their aims in tribal territories.

scholarly journals Polarization Without Poles: Machiavellian Conflicts and the Philippines’ Lost Decade of Democracy, 2000–2010

2018 ◽  
Vol 681 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aries A. Arugay ◽  
Dan Slater
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Roman Catholicism ◽  
Democratic Experience ◽  
Lost Decade ◽  
Democratic Rule ◽  
Ethnic Polarization ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Many ◽  
Religious Polarization

The Philippines’ long democratic experience has been remarkably free of deeply politicized cleavages. Roman Catholicism as a hegemonic religion prevents religious polarization, ethnic identity fragmentation limits ethnic polarization, and weak parties forestall ideological or class polarization. Nevertheless, the country suffered a crisis of polarization during the short-lived Estrada presidency (1998–2001) and that of his successor, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001–2010). The severe conflict was a product of power maneuvers by anti-Estrada forces, followed by anti-Arroyo actors returning the favor, given her gross abuses of power. Echoing Machiavelli’s famous distinction, the conflict pitted Estrada’s popoli (the many) against Arroyo’s oligarchic grandi (the few). This Machiavellian conflict ended with an oligarchic reassertion of Madisonian democratic rule through the electoral victory of Benigno Simeon Aquino III in 2010. We conclude the article by considering whether the populist challenge of current president Rodrigo Duterte (2016– ) might spark a similarly destabilizing conflict in the years to come.

“Yugoslavia's Help Was Extraordinary”: Political and Material Assistance from Belgrade to the MPLA in Its Rise to Power, 1961–1975

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jovan Čavoški
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Final Phase ◽  
The 1960S

Based on newly declassified documents from former Yugoslav archives, this article reconstructs the process of material and political assistance that was rendered to the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) by Yugoslavia throughout the 1960s and into the 1970s until the time of Angola's independence and the beginning of the Angolan civil war in 1975. The archival evidence demonstrates that Yugoslavia's assistance to the MPLA guerrillas was one of the crucial factors that enabled the organization not only to survive the vicissitudes of international politics, but also to preserve and stabilize its strength for the final phase of the power struggle in Angola.

Civilian Victimization and Ethnic Civil War

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1199-1225
Author(s):  
Lars-Erik Cederman ◽  
Simon Hug ◽  
Livia I. Schubiger ◽  
Francisco Villamil
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Civilian Population ◽  
Targeted Violence ◽  
Structural Variables ◽  
Global Coverage

While many studies provide insights into the causes of wartime civilian victimization, we know little about how the targeting of particular segments of the civilian population affects the onset and escalation of armed conflict. Previous research on conflict onset has been largely limited to structural variables, both theoretically and empirically. Moving beyond these static approaches, this article assesses how the state-led targeting of specific ethnic groups affects the likelihood of ethnic conflict onset and the evolution of conflicts once they break out. Relying on a new data set with global coverage that captures the ethnic identity of civilian victims of targeted violence, we find evidence that the state-led civilian victimization of particular ethnic groups increases the likelihood that the latter become involved in ethnic civil war. We also find tentative, yet more nuanced, evidence that ethnic targeting by state forces affects the escalation of ongoing conflicts.

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