The Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Agricultural Employment in the United States

1996 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel D. Uri
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Employment ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

This study addresses the question of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected agricultural employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price volatility is established using cointegration tests. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate is examined.

scholarly journals Impact of oil price volatility on state-level consumption of the United States: The role of oil dependence

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 962-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reneé van Eyden ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Xin Sheng ◽  
Mark E Wohar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we analyse the impact of oil price uncertainty (as measured by an observable measure of oil price volatility, i.e. realised volatility) on United States state-level real consumption by accounting for oil dependency. We account for both the long- and short-run dynamics of the state-level consumption function using the panel Pooled Mean Group estimator. The analysis makes use of a novel dataset including housing and stock market wealth at the state level covering the quarterly period 1975:Q1 to 2012:Q2, supplemented with an annual dataset up to 2018. We simultaneously estimate the long-run relationship and short-run impact of oil price volatility at the state-level conditional upon their oil dependency. We find that the negative impact of volatility is most severe for the states of Wyoming, Alaska and New Mexico, while the negative impact is least for Illinois, New York and Nebraska. States with lower per capita income and consumption expenditure, notably in the Southeast and Southwest region of the country are exposed to be more vulnerable to the negative impact of adverse developments and uncertainty in the oil market, as they may have less access to a stock of wealth and other means as recourse. Heterogenous responses, therefore, necessitate additional state-level response besides the national response to oil uncertainty.

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document