Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan: TEM PSHA2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 137-159
Author(s):  
Chung-Han Chan ◽  
Kuo-Fong Ma ◽  
J Bruce H Shyu ◽  
Ya-Ting Lee ◽  
Yu-Ju Wang ◽  
...  

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) published the first version of the Taiwan probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (named TEM PSHA2015) 5 years ago. For updating to the TEM PSHA2020, we considered an updated seismogenic structure database, including the structures newly identified with 3D geometry, an earthquake catalog made current to 2016, state-of-the-art seismic models, a new set of ground motion prediction equations, and site amplification factors. In addition to earthquakes taking place on each individual seismogenic structure, the updated seismic model included the possibility of an earthquake occurring on multiple structures. To include fault memory for illustrating activity on seismogenic structure sources, we incorporated the Brownian passage time model. For the crustal seismicity that cannot be attributed to any specific structure, we implemented both area source and smoothing kernel models. A new set of ground motion prediction equations is incorporated. In addition to the calculation of hazard at engineering bedrock, our assessment included site amplification factors that competent authorities of governments and private companies could use to implement hazard prevention and reduction strategies.

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maura Murru ◽  
Matteo Taroni ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Giuseppe Falcone

<p>The recent Amatrice strong event (M<sub>w</sub>6.0) occurred on August 24, 2016 in Central Apennines (Italy) in a seismic gap zone, motivated us to study and provide better understanding of the seismic hazard assessment in the macro area defined as “Central Italy”. The area affected by the sequence is placed between the M<sub>w</sub>6.0 1997 Colfiorito sequence to the north (Umbria-Marche region) the Campotosto area hit by the 2009 L’Aquila sequence M<sub>w</sub>6.3 (Abruzzo region) to the south. The Amatrice earthquake occurred while there was an ongoing effort to update the 2004 seismic hazard map (MPS04) for the Italian territory, requested in 2015 by the Italian Civil Protection Agency to the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia INGV. Therefore, in this study we brought to our attention new earthquake source data and recently developed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Our aim was to validate whether the seismic hazard assessment in this area has changed with respect to 2004, year in which the MPS04 map was released. In order to understand the impact of the recent earthquakes on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy we compared the annual seismic rates calculated using a smoothed seismicity approach over two different periods; the Parametric Catalog of the Historical Italian earthquakes (CPTI15) from 1871 to 2003 and the historical and instrumental catalogs from 1871 up to 31 August 2016. Results are presented also in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), using the recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at Amatrice, interested by the 2016 sequence.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Mustafa Erdik

Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Pakistan is carried out to compute hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) for 975 and 2475 years return periods. A composite earthquake catalogue consisting of 32,700 events has been compiled having a magnitude range of Mw 4.0-8.2 in this study and used in the analysis to make computations at a rectangular grid of 5 km in the OpenQuake plateform. Ground motion values have been obtained for flat rock reference seismic site conditions with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. The epistemic uncertainties inherent in ground motion prediction equations and maximum magnitude potential of seismic sources are taken into account through logic tree. Ground motion prediction equations are assigned equal weights in the logic tree while different various weight are assigned to the maximum magnitude potential models. Results of the study are expressed as ground motion contour maps, mean uniform hazard spectra for important cities in Pakistan. PGA ranges from 0.16 to 0.54g for 10 % of probability of exceedance, 0.23 to 0.72g of probability of exceedance 0.32 to 1.02 g for 2 % of probability of exceedance in 50 years. Spectral acceleration at 0.2 s range from 0.67 to 2.19g for 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. While spectral acceleration at 1.0 s values range from 0.09 to 0.52g 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. Comparison of results of this study with other well regarded references of suggest that results of the study are rational and are reliable.


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