Development of space environment customized risk estimation for satellites (SECURES)

AbstractPlasma variations in the geospace environment driven by solar wind–magnetosphere interactions are one of the major causes of satellite anomaly. To mitigate the effect of satellite anomaly, the risk of space weather disturbances predicted by space weather forecasting needs to be known in advance. However, the risk of satellite anomaly owing to space weather disturbances is not the same for all satellites, because the risk depends not only on the space environment itself but also on the design and materials of individual satellites. From the viewpoint of satellite operators, it is difficult to apply a general alert level of the space environment to the risk of individual satellites. To provide tailored space weather information, we have developed SECURES (Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites) by combining models of the space environment and those of spacecraft charging. In SECURES, we focus on the risk of spacecraft charging (surface/internal) for geosynchronous satellites. For the risk estimation of surface charging, we have combined the global magnetosphere magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with the satellite surface charging models. For the risk estimation of internal charging, we have combined the radiation belt models with the satellite internal charging models. We have developed prototype products for both types of charging/electrostatic discharge (ESD). The development of SECURES and our achievements are introduced in this paper.

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Development of Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites (SECURES)

10.21203/rs.3.rs-63050/v3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tsutomu Nagatsuma ◽

Aoi Nakamizo ◽

Yasubumi Kubota ◽

Masao Nakamura ◽

Kiyokazu Koga ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Risk Estimation ◽

Space Environment ◽

Spacecraft Charging ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Weather Information ◽

Surface Charging ◽

Geosynchronous Satellites ◽

Internal Charging

Abstract Plasma variations in the geospace environment driven by solar wind–magnetosphere interactions are one of the major causes of satellite anomaly. To mitigate the effect of satellite anomaly, the risk of space weather disturbances predicted by space weather forecasting needs to be known in advance. However, the risk of satellite anomaly owing to space weather disturbances is not the same for all satellites, because the risk depends not only on the space environment itself but also on the design and materials of individual satellites. From the viewpoint of satellite operators, it is difficult to apply a general alert level of the space environment to the risk of individual satellites. To provide tailored space weather information, we have developed SECURES (Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites) by combining models of the space environment and those of spacecraft charging. In SECURES, we focus on the risk of spacecraft charging (surface/internal) for geosynchronous satellites. For the risk estimation of surface charging, we have combined the global magnetosphere magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with the satellite surface charging models. For the risk estimation of internal charging, we have combined the radiation belt models with the satellite internal charging models. We have developed prototype products for both types of charging/electrostatic discharge (ESD). The development of SECURES and our achievements are introduced in this paper.

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Development of Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites (SECURES)

10.21203/rs.3.rs-63050/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tsutomu Nagatsuma ◽

Aoi Nakamizo ◽

Yasubumi Kubota ◽

Masao Nakamura ◽

Kiyokazu Koga ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Risk Estimation ◽

Space Environment ◽

Spacecraft Charging ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Weather Information ◽

Surface Charging ◽

Geosynchronous Satellites ◽

Internal Charging

Abstract Plasma variations in the geospace environment driven by the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction are one of the major causes of satellite anomaly. To mitigate the effect of satellite anomaly, the risk of space weather disturbances predicted by space weather forecasting needs to be known in advance. However, the risk of satellite anomaly owing to space weather disturbances is not the same for all satellites, because the risk depends not only on the space environment itself but also on the design and materials of individual satellites. From the viewpoint of satellite operators, it is difficult to apply a general alert level of the space environment to the risk of individual satellites. To provide tailored space weather information, we have developed SECURES (Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites) by combining models of the space environment and those of spacecraft charging. In SECURES, we focus on the risk of spacecraft charging (surface/internal) for geosynchronous satellites. For the risk estimation of surface charging, we have combined the global magnetosphere magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with the satellite surface charging models. For the risk estimation of internal charging, we have combined the radiation belt models with the satellite internal charging models. We have developed prototype products for both types of charging/electrostatic discharge (ESD). The development of SECURES and our achievements are introduced in this paper.

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Development of Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites (SECURES)

10.21203/rs.3.rs-63050/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tsutomu Nagatsuma ◽

Aoi Nakamizo ◽

Yasubumi Kubota ◽

Masao Nakamura ◽

Kiyokazu Koga ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Radiation Belt ◽

Risk Estimation ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Space Environment ◽

Spacecraft Charging ◽

Weather Information ◽

Surface Charging ◽

Geosynchronous Satellites ◽

Internal Charging

Abstract Plasma variations in geospace environment driven by the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction is one of the major causes of satellite anomaly. To mitigate the effect of satellite anomaly, risk of space weather disturbances needs to be known in advance based on space weather forecast. However, risk of satellite anomaly due to space weather disturbances is not the same as each satellite, because the risk depends not only on the space environment itself but also on the design and materials of individual satellite. For the viewpoint of satellite operator, it is not easy to apply general alert level of space environment to the risk of individual satellite. To provide tailored space weather information, we have developed SECURES (Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellite) by combining models of space environment and those of spacecraft charging. In SECURES, we are focusing on the risk of spacecraft charging (surface/internal) for geosynchronous satellites. For risk estimation of surface charging, we have combined the global magnetosphere MHD model with the satellite surface charging models. For risk estimation of internal charging, we have combined the radiation belt models with the satellite internal charging models. We have developed prototype products for both types of charging/ESD. The development of SECURES and our achievements are introduced in this paper.

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Space Weather in the UK: Updates on the UK Strategy, Investment, and International Engagements

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22231 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mario M. Bisi ◽

Mark Gibbs ◽

Mike A. Hapgood ◽

Mike Willis ◽

Richard A. Harrison ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

National Level ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Science Research ◽

Space Environment ◽

International Agencies ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

The Uk ◽

Weather Impacts

For the UK, the potential impacts from severe space weather (and everyday space weather) are considered of a high importance and hence the UK Government has included &#8220;Severe Space Weather&#8221; on its National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies since 2011.&#160; This is not just considering direct impacts on UK infrastructures, but also impacts to key partner/trading/neighbouring nations.&#160; This has led to a long series of national and international engagements and strategic developments both between UK agencies/entities and with international agencies/organisations (such as ESA, NOAA, NASA, COSPAR, ISES, ICAO, WMO, and UN COPUOS).&#160; On top of this, the UK has undertaken a series of wide-ranging investigations to mitigate space-weather impacts at the national level including the ongoing development of a national Space Weather Strategy &#8211; where the UK looks to experts across all sectors to feed into its development.&#160;An essential aspect of trying to mitigate space-weather impacts on the UK is the need for independent UK space-weather forecast capability in collaboration with the other 24/7 space-weather forecasting institutes around the World.&#160; This UK capability allows for direct advice to government on all things space weather, particularly on what to do when an impending event is expected and throughout its duration and recovery.&#160; Hence, he setting up of a UK staffed 24/7 space-weather forecasting centre at the Met Office alongside the formation of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) of experts were undertaken to provide the necessary advice to government.&#160;The UK is currently committing a large amount of money both to dedicated UK-based and ESA-based space weather programmes as well as through traditional science research funding channels.&#160; This includes the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme and the ESA Space Safety Programme.&#160; The UK has also taken a lead on several other space-/ground-based space-weather endeavours that are proving highly complementary to current UK and global capabilities.&#160;In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the above along with any outline of the UK Space Weather Strategy open to the public at the time of the EGU 2020 Meeting.

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Using MHD Simulation for Space Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

10.21236/ada413327 ◽

2001 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Goodrich

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Mhd Simulation ◽

Space Weather Forecasting

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Space weather: the solar perspective

Living Reviews in Solar Physics ◽

10.1007/s41116-021-00030-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Manuela Temmer

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Interplanetary Space ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Stereo Mission ◽

Interaction Regions ◽

Near Future ◽

First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

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SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Messenger AmSU ◽

10.22250/jasu.93.9 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 42-46

Author(s):

ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽

◽

DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Nuclear Physics ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Calculated Data ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Exponential Smoothing ◽

Launch Vehicles ◽

Short Term ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

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