scholarly journals SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-46
Author(s):  
ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽  
◽  
DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Nuclear Physics ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Calculated Data ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Launch Vehicles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

Space Weather in the UK: Updates on the UK Strategy, Investment, and International Engagements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario M. Bisi ◽  
Mark Gibbs ◽  
Mike A. Hapgood ◽  
Mike Willis ◽  
Richard A. Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
National Level ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Space Environment ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Weather Impacts

<p>For the UK, the potential impacts from severe space weather (and everyday space weather) are considered of a high importance and hence the UK Government has included “Severe Space Weather” on its National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies since 2011.  This is not just considering direct impacts on UK infrastructures, but also impacts to key partner/trading/neighbouring nations.  This has led to a long series of national and international engagements and strategic developments both between UK agencies/entities and with international agencies/organisations (such as ESA, NOAA, NASA, COSPAR, ISES, ICAO, WMO, and UN COPUOS).  On top of this, the UK has undertaken a series of wide-ranging investigations to mitigate space-weather impacts at the national level including the ongoing development of a national Space Weather Strategy – where the UK looks to experts across all sectors to feed into its development.</p><p> </p><p>An essential aspect of trying to mitigate space-weather impacts on the UK is the need for independent UK space-weather forecast capability in collaboration with the other 24/7 space-weather forecasting institutes around the World.  This UK capability allows for direct advice to government on all things space weather, particularly on what to do when an impending event is expected and throughout its duration and recovery.  Hence, he setting up of a UK staffed 24/7 space-weather forecasting centre at the Met Office alongside the formation of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) of experts were undertaken to provide the necessary advice to government.</p><p> </p><p>The UK is currently committing a large amount of money both to dedicated UK-based and ESA-based space weather programmes as well as through traditional science research funding channels.  This includes the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme and the ESA Space Safety Programme.  The UK has also taken a lead on several other space-/ground-based space-weather endeavours that are proving highly complementary to current UK and global capabilities.</p><p> </p><p>In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the above along with any outline of the UK Space Weather Strategy open to the public at the time of the EGU 2020 Meeting.</p>

scholarly journals Space weather: the solar perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Temmer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Stereo Mission ◽  
Interaction Regions ◽  
Near Future ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

Nanotechnology Challenges for Future Space Weather Forecasting Networks

2005 ◽  
pp. 46-62
Author(s):  
Rainer A. Dressler ◽  
Gregory P. Ginet ◽  
Skip Williams ◽  
Brian Hunt ◽  
Shouleh Nikzad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Future Space

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 869-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. P. Gaidash ◽  
A. V. Belov ◽  
M. A. Abunina ◽  
A. A. Abunin
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting

scholarly journals From heliophysics to space weather forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 5.26-5.30
Author(s):  
Richard Harrison ◽  
Jackie Davies ◽  
Jonny Rae
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
New Space ◽  
The Subject

Abstract Richard Harrison, Jackie Davies and Jonny Rae summarize progress in capitalizing on UK expertise in research and instrumentation for new space weather forecasting – the subject of an RAS Discussion Meeting in March.

Application of Test Particle Simulations to Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (S335) ◽  
pp. 268-271
Author(s):  
S. Dalla ◽  
B. Swalwell ◽  
M. Battarbee ◽  
M. S. Marsh ◽  
T. Laitinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Test Particle ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Alert System ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Particle Simulations ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Particle Propagation

AbstractModelling of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is usually carried out by means of the 1D focused transport equation and the same approach is adopted within several SEP Space Weather forecasting frameworks. We present an alternative approach, based on test particle simulations, which naturally describes 3D particle propagation. The SPARX forecasting system is an example of how test particle simulations can be used in real time in a Space Weather context. SPARX is currently operational within the COMESEP Alert System. The performance of the system, which is triggered by detection of a solar flare of class >M1.0 is evaluated by comparing forecasts for flare events between 1997 and 2017 with actual SEP data from the GOES spacecraft.

scholarly journals Current state and perspectives of Space Weather science in Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Christina Plainaki ◽  
Marco Antonucci ◽  
Alessandro Bemporad ◽  
Francesco Berrilli ◽  
Bruna Bertucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Space Missions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Current State ◽  
Space Agency ◽  
New Instrumentation ◽  
Important Field ◽  
Italian Space Agency

Italian teams have been involved many times in Space Weather observational campaigns from space and from the ground, contributing in the advancing of our knowledge on the properties and evolution of the related phenomena. Numerous Space Weather forecasting and now-casting modeling efforts have resulted in a remarkable add-on to the overall progress in the field, at both national and international level. The Italian Space Agency has participated several times in space missions with science objectives related to Space Weather; indeed, an important field for the Italian scientific and industrial communities interested in Heliophysics and Space Weather, is the development of new instrumentation for future space missions. In this paper, we present a brief state-of-the-art in Space Weather science in Italy and we discuss some ideas on a long-term plan for the support of future scientific research in the related disciplines. In the context of the current roadmap, the Italian Space Agency aims to assess the possibility to develop a national scientific Space Weather data centre to encourage synergies between different science teams with interest in the field and to motivate innovation and new mission concept development. Alongside with the proposed recommendations, we also discuss how the Italian expertise could complement international efforts in a wider international Space Weather context.

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