Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting Driven by Solar Observations

Context. The analysis of waves on the visible side of the Sun allows the detection of active regions on the far side through local helioseismology techniques. Knowing the magnetism in the whole Sun, including the non-visible hemisphere, is fundamental for several space weather forecasting applications. Aims. Seismic identification of far-side active regions is challenged by the reduced signal-to-noise ratio, and only large and strong active regions can be reliable detected. Here we develop a new method to improve the identification of active region signatures in far-side seismic maps. Methods. We constructed a deep neural network that associates the far-side seismic maps obtained from helioseismic holography with the probability that active regions lie on the far side. The network was trained with pairs of helioseismic phase-shift maps and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms acquired half a solar rotation later, which were used as a proxy for the presence of active regions on the far side. The method was validated using a set of artificial data, and it was also applied to actual solar observations during the period of minimum activity of solar cycle 24. Results. Our approach shows a higher sensitivity to the presence of far-side active regions than standard methods that have been applied up to date. The neural network can significantly increase the number of detected far-side active regions, and will potentially improve the application of far-side seismology to space weather forecasting.

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Monitoring of Interplanetary Scintillation and Potential of Short-time Space Weather Forecasting

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology ◽

10.3103/s106837392103002x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 46 (3) ◽

pp. 150-156

Author(s):

I. V. Chashei ◽

S. A. Tyul’bashev ◽

Yu. V. Pisanko

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Interplanetary Scintillation ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Time Space ◽

Short Time

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Monitoring of Interplanetary Scintillation and Potential of Short-time Space Weather Forecasting

Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya ◽

10.52002/0130-2906-2021-3-28-37 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

pp. 28-37

Author(s):

I. V. Chashei ◽

◽

S. А. Tyul’bashev ◽

Yu. V. Pisanko ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Interplanetary Scintillation ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

The Earth ◽

First Case ◽

Time Space ◽

Interaction Regions ◽

Short Time

Observations and initial analysis of interplanetary scintillation data are briefly described in the framework of the program for the solar wind monitoring with the modernized LPI LPA radio telescope that started in 2014. The examples of detecting interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICME) and co-rotating interaction regions (СIR) of different-speed flows are presented. It is shown that in the first case, enhancements in the scintillation level in extended sounded regions of solar wind are observed 20–30 hours before the arrival of the disturbances to the Earth; in the second case, the evening and night scintillation level decrease is observed several days before the compressed region of disturbances comes to the Earth. These features are considered as a base of using interplanetary scintillation monitoring data for short-time space weather forecasting.

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Using MHD Simulation for Space Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

10.21236/ada413327 ◽

2001 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Goodrich

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Mhd Simulation ◽

Space Weather Forecasting

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Space weather: the solar perspective

Living Reviews in Solar Physics ◽

10.1007/s41116-021-00030-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Manuela Temmer

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Interplanetary Space ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Stereo Mission ◽

Interaction Regions ◽

Near Future ◽

First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

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SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Messenger AmSU ◽

10.22250/jasu.93.9 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 42-46

Author(s):

ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽

◽

DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Nuclear Physics ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Calculated Data ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Exponential Smoothing ◽

Launch Vehicles ◽

Short Term ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

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