scholarly journals A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland’s 1990s stagnation

2021 ◽  
Vol 157 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannic Stucki ◽  
Jacqueline Thomet
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Labour Income ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Weak Growth ◽  
The Business Cycle

AbstractWe study Switzerland’s weak growth during the 1990s through the lens of the business cycle accounting framework of Chari et al. (Econometrica 75(3):781–836, 2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the 1993–1996 stagnation episode. Rather, the stagnation is explained by factors that made labour and investment expensive. We show that increased labour income taxes and financial frictions are plausible causes. Holding these factors constant, the counterfactual annualized real output growth over the 1993Q1–1996Q4 period is 1.93% compared to realized growth of 0.35%.

State productivity growth in agriculture: catching-up and the business cycle

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Eldon Ball ◽  
Carlos San-Juan-Mesonada ◽  
Camilo A. Ulloa
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keisuke Otsu ◽  
Katsuyuki Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Labor Participation ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Asian Economies

We study the effects of projected population aging on potential growth in Asian economies over the period 2015–2050. We find that an increase in the share of the population over 64 years of age will significantly lower output growth through decreased labor participation. Population aging can also reduce economic growth through increased labor income taxes and dampened productivity growth.

scholarly journals The interdependence of financial risk and sovereign risk along the business cycle in the Euro Area

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Κωνσταντίνος Τσουκαλάς
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
The Business Cycle

Αναπτύσσουμε ένα νεο-κεϋνσιανό (newKeynesian - ΝΚ) στοχαστικό δυναμικό μοντέλο γενικής ισορροπίας (dynamicstochasticgeneralequilibrium – DGSE) για να μελετήσουμε το ρόλο που έχει στον οικονομικό κύκλο η αλληλεξάρτηση μεταξύ της χρηματοοικονομικής διαμεσολάβησης (financial intermediation) και του κρατικού κινδύνου (sovereignrisk). Το μοντέλο μας συνθέτει τις κυρίαρχες σύγχρονες προσεγγίσεις σε δύο κατευθύνσεις της βιβλιογραφίας: των χρηματοοικονομικών τριβών (financial frictions) και του κινδύνου κρατικής πτώχευσης (sovereigndefault). Συγκεκριμένα, μοντελοποιούμε τις χρηματοοικονομικέςτριβές σύμφωνα με τους Bernanke κ.ά. (1999) και την πιθανότητα της κρατικής πτώχευσης χρησιμοποιώντας την ιδέα του στοχαστικού δημοσιονομικού ορίου των Bi και Traum (2012). Καταλήγουμε δε ότι, εφόσον υπάρχουν αλληλεπιδράσεις χρηματοοικονομικής διαμεσολάβησης και κρατικού κινδύνου, τότε μία αύξηση στον κίνδυνο της κεφαλαιακής επένδυσης (διαταραχή του επιπέδου κινδύνου), η οποία πηγάζει από τον χρηματοπιστωτικό τομέα, έχει ως αποτέλεσμα μία σημαντικά βαθύτερη ύφεση. Η ύφεση εξαρτάται σημαντικά από την προκυκλική/αντικυκλική πολιτική της κυβέρνησης σχετικά με τα απαιτούμενα κεφάλαια που διακρατεί για το πιθανό κόστος της διάσωσης του χρηματοπιστωτικού τομέα. Το παραπάνω αποτέλεσμα οδηγεί στα παρακάτω συμπεράσματα οικονομικής πολιτικής. Οι ευρωπαϊκές πολιτικές για τη διάσωση του χρηματοοικονομικού συστήματος έχουν χειροτερέψει την ύφεση. Εάν δεν υπάρξει κεντρικός ευρωπαϊκός μηχανισμός στα πλαίσια του EFSF/ESM που να χρηματοδοτεί απευθείας το τραπεζικό σύστημα το πρόβλημα θα εξακολουθεί να υπάρχει. Ο πολλαπλασιαστής των κρατικών δαπανών είναι μικρότερος όταν υπάρχει κρατικός κίνδυνος ευνοώντας πολιτικές οικονομικής λιτότητας.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

scholarly journals Has The Business Cycle Been Dampened? The Case Of Canada, Sweden And The United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakhtiar Moazzami ◽  
Bahram Dadgostar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Output Data ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
The Business Cycle

Have postwar stabilization policies reduced economic fluctuations compared to earlier periods? Using output data for Canada, Sweden and the United States for the period 1929-2005 and three different de-trending procedures, we found that postwar economic policies have been successful in reducing business cycle volatility. We also found that fluctuations in real output have been significantly dampened during the post-Bretton Woods era compared to earlier periods.

ASYMMETRY AND THE AMPLITUDE OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS: A QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL FRICTIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Atolia ◽  
John Gibson ◽  
Milton Marquis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Quantitative Investigation ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Key Features ◽  
The Business Cycle

We examine the quantitative significance of financial frictions that reduce firms' access to credit in explaining asymmetric business cycles characterized by disproportionately severe downturns. Using rate spread data to calibrate the severity of these frictions, we successfully match several key features of U.S. data. Specifically, although output and consumption are relatively symmetric (with output being slightly more asymmetric), investment and hours worked display significant asymmetry over the business cycle. We also demonstrate that our financial frictions are capable of significantly amplifying adverse shocks during severe downturns. Although the data suggest that these frictions are only active occasionally, our results indicate that they are still a significant source of macroeconomic volatility over the business cycle.

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