The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Examining the vintage effect in hedonic pricing using spatially varying coefficients models: a case study of single-family houses in the Canton of Zurich

This article examines the spatially varying effect of age on single-family house (SFH) prices. Age has been shown to be a key driver for house depreciation and is usually associated with a negative price effect. In practice, however, there exist deviations from this behavior which are referred to as vintage effects. We estimate a spatially varying coefficients (SVC) model to investigate the spatial structures of vintage effects on SFH pricing. For SFHs in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland, we find substantial spatial variation in the age effect. In particular, we find a local, strong vintage effect primarily in urban areas compared to pure depreciative age effects in rural locations. Using cross validation, we assess the potential improvement in predictive performance by incorporating spatially varying vintage effects in hedonic models. We find a substantial improvement in out-of-sample predictive performance of SVC models over classical spatial hedonic models.

Money and inflation in Switzerland

This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values, accounting for a secular decline in interest rates and thus in trend velocity, have been followed by persistently higher inflation and output with the usual monetary policy transmission lags. Money and exchange rate fluctuations can explain the major inflation developments in Switzerland over the past four decades.

A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland’s 1990s stagnation

We study Switzerland’s weak growth during the 1990s through the lens of the business cycle accounting framework of Chari et al. (Econometrica 75(3):781–836, 2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the 1993–1996 stagnation episode. Rather, the stagnation is explained by factors that made labour and investment expensive. We show that increased labour income taxes and financial frictions are plausible causes. Holding these factors constant, the counterfactual annualized real output growth over the 1993Q1–1996Q4 period is 1.93% compared to realized growth of 0.35%.

Regulated free banking in Switzerland (1881–1907)

The free-banking history of Switzerland is subdivided into periods with unfettered competition (1826–1881), and strict banknote regulation (1881–1907). This paper suggests that the Federal Banknote Act of 1881 was introduced to remedy the fragmentation of the unfettered-competition period, during which private note-issuing banks were unable to issue standardised paper money. Although the corresponding minimum-reserve and mutual-acceptance rules led to a standardisation, they created new problems. For example, these regulatory interventions reduced the flexibility (or “elasticity”) of the paper-money supply. It turned out that a central note-issuing bank is needed to supply adequate amounts of standardised banknotes.

The green potential of occupations in Switzerland

We use a data-driven methodology to quantify the importance of different skills in performing green tasks, aiming to estimate the green potential of occupations in Switzerland. By this we mean the potential of an occupation to be able to perform green tasks on the basis of the skills attributed to it, whereby it is irrelevant whether the occupation already bundles green tasks or not. The results show that occupations with a high green potential are predominantly those with an engineering and technical background. In order to substantiate our green potential measure, we provide evidence of a positive association between demand of employment in occupations with high green potential and an increase in the implicit tax rate on greenhouse gas emissions. The share of employment in occupations with a green potential above a reasonable threshold in the total Swiss labour force is 16.7% (number of persons employed) and 18.8% (full-time equivalents). These employed persons are, on average, younger, more often men, have a higher level of educational attainment and a higher probability of having immigrated than employed persons in occupations with low green potential.

Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case

A growing body of literature has highlighted two important caveats to the credit-to-GDP gap as advocated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The first relates to the approach used to normalise credit (i.e. dividing nominal credit by GDP). In this regard, critics have argued that GDP movements, that may or may not be relevant, run the risk of affecting a normalised measure of credit. The second relates to the use of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to estimate the gap’s trend component. In this regard, critics have emphasised several measurement problems associated with using the HP filter. In this paper, we assess the relevance of these critiques for Switzerland. Our findings show that despite its drawbacks, the BIS gap is a reliable measure of excess credit in Switzerland. Alternatives do not provide clear advantages, rather they are considerably more complex to estimate and come with their own set of pitfalls. For policymaking purposes, the BIS gap’s signal should be complemented with narratives based on a broader set of credit metrics to ensure that an all-encompassing risk assessment is made.

“Too shocked to search” The COVID-19 shutdowns’ impact on the search for apprenticeships

Even though the recession in Switzerland triggered by COVID-19 ultimately remained without consequences for the apprenticeship market, significantly fewer apprenticeship contracts had been signed in the months of the first shutdown in 2020 than in the same months of the previous year. Using daily search queries on the national administrative platform for apprenticeship vacancies from February 2020 until April 2021 as a proxy for the supply of potential apprentices, we find a temporal pattern that coincides perfectly with the development of signed apprenticeship contracts. Furthermore, the analyses show that the initially very strong relationship between the intensity of the politically imposed restrictions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and the daily search queries diminished over time, leading to a search intensity in March 2021 that was back at pre-pandemic level.

The future of Swiss hydropower: how to distribute the risk and the profits?

Low electricity prices put economic pressure on hydropower companies. A more flexible water fee design can counteract this pressure and support hydropower companies during times when market revenues are low. However, this comes at the cost of lower revenues for resource owners. Using a sample of cost data for 62 companies and revenue data derived from an electricity market model, we have quantified this trade-off for the case of Switzerland. We found that electricity market price developments dominate changes in water fees and that for the profitability of hydropower, electricity prices are more important than water fee levels. However, with electricity prices of around CHF 40 per MWh, water fees can make the difference between profit and loss. Therefore, while flexible water fee regimes shift the market risk from producers to resource owners to some extent, the extent of this risk shift depends on the detailed design of the flexible regime.