scholarly journals Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keisuke Otsu ◽  
Katsuyuki Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Labor Participation ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Asian Economies

We study the effects of projected population aging on potential growth in Asian economies over the period 2015–2050. We find that an increase in the share of the population over 64 years of age will significantly lower output growth through decreased labor participation. Population aging can also reduce economic growth through increased labor income taxes and dampened productivity growth.

scholarly journals Pakistan’s Productivity Performance and TFP Trends, 1980–2015: Cause for Real Concern

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 33-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashid Amjad ◽  
Namra Awais
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
High Output

This paper reviews Pakistan’s productivity performance over the last 35 years (1980–2015) and identifies factors that help explain the declining trend in labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP), both of which could have served as major drivers of productivity growth – as happened in East Asia and more recently in India. A key finding is that the maximum TFP gains and their contribution to economic growth are realized during periods of high-output growth. The lack of sustained growth and low and declining levels of investment appear to be the most important causes of the low contribution of TFP to productivity growth, which has now reached levels that should be of major concern to policymakers vis-à-vis Pakistan’s growth prospects.

scholarly journals Potential Output in Asia: Some Forward-Looking Scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-55
Author(s):  
Andrew Burns
Keyword(s):  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Total Factor Productivity Growth ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Potential Output Growth

This paper presents estimates of potential output growth for a sample of 26 Asian economies and projects potential output growth through 2040 under several scenarios. Results suggest that in the absence of further capital deepening, and assuming continued total factor productivity growth at recent rates, potential output growth across economies could slow from a median of 4.6% during 2010–2015 to 2.7% between 2035 and 2040. Demographic trends and an assumed stabilization in capital–output ratios account for most of the slowing. Much better outcomes are possible if trends are supported by policy. Better total factor productivity growth could raise potential output by between 11% and 24% by 2040, while lower unemployment and higher participation rates could boost potential output by 10% or more in some South Asian economies. An improved investment climate could add between 6% and 10% to potential output in most economies, while accelerating structural convergence (moving labor from lower to higher productivity sectors) could raise potential output by 10% or more in half of the examined countries.

scholarly journals Labour productivity growth slowdown: An effect of economic stagnation rather than its cause?

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (s1) ◽  
pp. 67-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Podkaminer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Labour Productivity Growth ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Term Data

This paper reports the results of an econometric examination on the links between labour productivity and output growth for 22 countries (for which long-term data are available). It turns out that, generally, labour productivity does not “cause” output. In more cases, the causation seems to be running in the opposite direction: from output to productivity. This finding, though inconsistent with the “mainstream” ideas on the sources of long-term economic growth, is reminiscent of the classical Kaldor-Verdoorn Law. The progressing slowdown in output growth on the global level, initiated around the mid-1970s (when the process of discarding the earlier economic policy paradigms set in), may have been mirrored by the progressing slowdown in productivity growth (and that despite the hardly disputable acceleration of technological progress).

scholarly journals Sectoral Infrastructure Investments in an Unbalanced Growing Economy: The Case of Potential Growth in India

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chetan Ghate ◽  
Gerhard Glomm ◽  
Jialu Liu Streeter
Keyword(s):  
Income Taxes ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Positive Effect

We construct a two-sector (agriculture and modern) overlapping generations growth model calibrated to India to study the effects of sectoral tax rates, sectoral infrastructure investments, and labor market frictions on potential growth in India. Our model is motivated by the idea that because misallocation depends on distortions, policies that reduce distortions raise potential growth. We show that the positive effect of a variety of policy reforms on potential growth depends on the extent to which public and private capital are complements or substitutes. We also show that funding more infrastructure investments in both sectors by raising labor income taxes in the agriculture sector raises potential growth.

scholarly journals Demografía, mercado de trabajo y tecnología: El patrón de crecimiento de Cataluña, 1970- 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Mónica Correa-López ◽  
Ana Cristina Mingorance-Arnáiz
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Technological Gap ◽  
Labour Productivity Growth ◽  
Technological Efficiency ◽  
Favourable Evolution ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Productivity Gains

Over the last forty years, the pattern of long-term economic growth in Catalonia has been characterised by two very distinctive phases. During the period 1970-1992, the source of per capita output growth is found in the extensive labour productivity gains that were the result of technological efficiency improvements.  The period  1993-2010, on the other hand, witnessed a favourable evolution of demographic and labour market factors - more particularly, a strong expansion of labour utilisation - while labour productivity growth slowed down substantially. This paper presents medium-term forecasts of potential growth in Catalonia and suggests that labour productivity growth may underpin an estimated potential growth rate of 2,2%. Yet, the results are conditional upon Catalonia´s effort at closing the technological gap with the U.S.

scholarly journals A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland’s 1990s stagnation

2021 ◽  
Vol 157 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannic Stucki ◽  
Jacqueline Thomet
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Labour Income ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Weak Growth ◽  
The Business Cycle

AbstractWe study Switzerland’s weak growth during the 1990s through the lens of the business cycle accounting framework of Chari et al. (Econometrica 75(3):781–836, 2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the 1993–1996 stagnation episode. Rather, the stagnation is explained by factors that made labour and investment expensive. We show that increased labour income taxes and financial frictions are plausible causes. Holding these factors constant, the counterfactual annualized real output growth over the 1993Q1–1996Q4 period is 1.93% compared to realized growth of 0.35%.

scholarly journals Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gauti B. Eggertsson ◽  
Manuel Lancastre ◽  
Lawrence H. Summers
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Capita Output

This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler et al. (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between population aging and per capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by a lower bound on nominal rates, as during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008–2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis. (JEL E23, E32, E43, G01, I31, J14)

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Three Challenges for the Social Investment Strategy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Myles
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
First Century ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Current Consumption ◽  
The Social ◽  
Post War ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
Wage Outcomes

Three challenges are highlighted in this chapter to the realization of the social investment strategy in our twenty-first-century world. The first such challenge—intertemporal politics—lies in the term ‘investment’, a willingness to forego some measure of current consumption in order to realize often uncertain gains in the future that would not occur otherwise, such as better schooling, employment, and wage outcomes for the next generation. Second, the conditions that enabled our post-war predecessors to invest heavily in future-oriented public goods—a sustained period of economic growth and historically exceptional tolerance for high levels of taxation—no longer obtain. Third, the millennial cohorts who will bear the costs of a new, post-industrial, investment strategy are more economically divided than earlier cohorts and face multiple demands raised by issues such as population aging and global warming, among others.

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