Prostate-specific antigen decline (PSA) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) who failed first-line chemotherapy.
4515 Background: PSA kinetics, and more specifically a 30% decline in PSA following initiation of first-line chemotherapy with docetaxel, has been reported to be a surrogate endpoint for OS in mCRPC pts. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate PSA kinetics as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in patients who were receiving second line chemotherapy following progression after docetaxel front line therapy. Methods: Data from a phase III trial of 755 mCRPC pts randomized to treatment with cabazitaxel in combination with prednisone (C+P) every 3 weeks or mitoxantrone in combination with prednisone (M+P) were used. All pts were previously treated with a docetaxel-containing regimen. PSA decline (≥30% and ≥50% ) and PSA velocity within the first three months of treatment were evaluated as potential surrogate endpoints for OS. The proportional hazards (PH) model was used to test for Prentice’s criteria and the proportion of treatment explained (PTE) was computed as a second test of surrogacy. PTE was defined as one minus the ratio of the treatment coefficient in the adjusted PH model (includes PSA decline or velocity) to the treatment coefficient in the unadjusted PH model. Results: Of 755 men, 654 had sufficient PSA data to be included in the analysis. Treatment arm (C+P vs. M+P) was prognostic of OS with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.65 (95% CI=0.54-0.79, p<0.001). A 30% PSA decline within three months of treatment was associated with a HR of 0.46 (95% CI 0.37-0.57, p-value<0.001) for OS. After adjusting for treatment effect, the HR for 30% PSA decline was 0.50 (95% CI= 0.40-0.62, p<0.001) but treatment arm remained statistically significant thus failing Prentice’s third criterion. The PTE for ≥30% decline in PSA within three months was 0.39 (95% CI= 0.36-0.42) indicating a lack of surrogacy for OS. Similar results were observed for pts who experienced ≥50% decline in PSA and PSA velocity. Conclusions: Neither PSA decline (≥30% and ≥50%) nor PSA velocity within the first three months of therapy are surrogate endpoints for OS in pts receiving second line chemotherapy.