CN Algorithm in Italy: Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction and Seismotectonic Model Validation.

2020 ◽  
pp. 193-201
Author(s):  
Giovanni Costa ◽  
Antonella Peresan ◽  
Ivanka Orozova ◽  
Giuliano Francesco Panza ◽  
Irina M. Rotwain
Keyword(s):  
Model Validation ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Seismotectonic Model ◽  
Cn Algorithm

scholarly journals Assessing ‘alarm-based CN’ earthquake predictions in Italy

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Taroni ◽  
Warner Marzocchi ◽  
Pamela Roselli
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
News Media ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Earthquake Predictions ◽  
Cn Algorithm ◽  
Italian Territory

<p>The quantitative assessment of the performance of earthquake prediction and/or forecast models is essential for evaluating their applicability for risk reduction purposes. Here we assess the earthquake prediction performance of the CN model applied to the Italian territory. This model has been widely publicized in Italian news media, but a careful assessment of its prediction performance is still lacking. In this paper we evaluate the results obtained so far from the CN algorithm applied to the Italian territory, by adopting widely used testing procedures and under development in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) network. Our results show that the CN prediction performance is comparable to the prediction performance of the stationary Poisson model, that is, CN predictions do not add more to what may be expected from random chance.</p>

scholarly journals Seismotectonic Model and CN Earthquake Prediction in Italy

1999 ◽  
Vol 154 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Peresan ◽  
G. Costa ◽  
G. F. Panza
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Seismotectonic Model

scholarly journals A proposal of regionalization for the application of the CN earthquake prediction algorithm to the Italian territory

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Peresan ◽  
G. Costa ◽  
G. F. Panza
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Tool Selection ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Cn Algorithm ◽  
Italian Territory

A regionalization of the Italian territory, strictly based on seismotectonic zoning and the main geodynamic features of the Italian area, is proposed for intermediate-term earthquake prediction with CN algorithm. Three regions, composed of adjacent zones with the same seismogenic behaviour or with transitional properties, are selected for the north, centre and south of Italy, compatibly with the kinematic model. This regionalization allows us an average reduction of the spatial uncertainty of about 35% for the northern and central regions, and of about 70% for the southern region in comparison with previous studies. A general reduction of the percentage of total TIPs, with respect to the results obtained neglecting the seismotectonic zoning, has been observed as well. Therefore, it seems that the seismotectonic model is a useful tool selection of the fault systems involved in the preparation of strong earthquakes. The successful attempt of catalogue upgrading, accomplished using the NEIC Preliminary Determinations of Epicentres, appears to substantiate the robustness of the algorithm against changes in the catalogue.

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