Abstract
Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.
The ethnic composition of state security forces is believed to have important effects on the dynamics of conflict processes, but data limitations have impeded our ability to test such hypotheses cross-nationally until now. To address this problem, the Security Force Ethnicity dataset provides time-series, group-level measures of the ethnic composition of military forces in the Middle East between 1946 and 2013. We draw on an extensive review of case studies and histories to produce unique ordinal codings for participation rates in the officer corps and in the rank and file. We demonstrate the utility of the data through empirical applications, examining the relationship between military ethnic composition and the incidence of coups and repression. Our findings illustrate the theoretical and empirical importance of disaggregating ethnic representation in the military from inclusion in other institutions of the state.
Significance
These have long been matters of serious concern. President Cyril Ramaphosa on August 5 responded with a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the minister of defence, closed down the ministry of state security and moved intelligence agencies into the presidency.
Impacts
Planned cuts to security force budgets will be politically unsustainable.
Ramaphosa’s decision to retain Minister of Police Bheki Cele in post casts doubt on the prospects of much-needed police reform.
Incorporating intelligence functions into the presidency may speed reforms but also poses long-term dangers of more abuses.
Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks
