Weak security forces threaten South African stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Police Reform ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Significance These have long been matters of serious concern. President Cyril Ramaphosa on August 5 responded with a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the minister of defence, closed down the ministry of state security and moved intelligence agencies into the presidency. Impacts Planned cuts to security force budgets will be politically unsustainable. Ramaphosa’s decision to retain Minister of Police Bheki Cele in post casts doubt on the prospects of much-needed police reform. Incorporating intelligence functions into the presidency may speed reforms but also poses long-term dangers of more abuses.

US-Iraqi offensive against Mosul may begin in mid-2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security

Significance The United States has sent 3,000 'train and assist' troops to the country, and passed a 1.6 billion dollar assistance package in December 2014 to provide funding for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Kurdish peshmerga and a Tribal Security Force (TSF) of Sunni Arabs in Anbar Province. Impacts The Mosul offensive will also depend on Baghdad reaching political accommodation with Sunni Arabs. The rise of Iran-backed Shia militias will challenge the ISF's monopoly over state security. Their deployment also raises the risk of sectarian atrocities during reconquest of Sunni areas. ISG is likely to retain a strong presence in western Iraq so long as it has safe havens in eastern Syria.

The Security-Force Ethnicity (SFE) Project: Introducing a new dataset

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Lorenzo Johnson ◽  
Ches Thurber
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Officer Corps ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Ethnic Representation ◽  
Conflict Processes ◽  
State Security ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Relationship

The ethnic composition of state security forces is believed to have important effects on the dynamics of conflict processes, but data limitations have impeded our ability to test such hypotheses cross-nationally until now. To address this problem, the Security Force Ethnicity dataset provides time-series, group-level measures of the ethnic composition of military forces in the Middle East between 1946 and 2013. We draw on an extensive review of case studies and histories to produce unique ordinal codings for participation rates in the officer corps and in the rank and file. We demonstrate the utility of the data through empirical applications, examining the relationship between military ethnic composition and the incidence of coups and repression. Our findings illustrate the theoretical and empirical importance of disaggregating ethnic representation in the military from inclusion in other institutions of the state.

Economic gloom portends instability in Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
South African Rand

Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.

Kenya election controversy increasingly likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Voter Fraud ◽  
Election Violence ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Opposition leader Raila Odinga and supporters of his National Super Alliance (NASA) have long since lost faith in the capacity of the IEBC to deliver a free and fair election and have regularly alleged that the ruling party plans to steal the vote. Opposition supporters claim Msando was killed because he was determined to ensure that the technology designed to prevent electoral fraud worked -- his murder lends credibility to Odinga's narrative that the process is being undermined from within. With only a week until the election, attention is focused not on political platforms but on the potential for voter fraud or a contested result. Impacts Electoral controversies and the delegitimisation of the electoral commission increase the risk of post-election violence. Widespread ethnic clashes on the scale of 2007-08 are unlikely due to heavy deployments of state security forces. Political instability, even if limited, will deter tourism and investment, hurting short-term economic growth.

Nicaragua protests signal dialogue, not regime change

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Security Reforms ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Significance The protests pose the greatest threat to President Daniel Ortega since he took power in 2007. The president’s eventual withdrawal of the social security reforms that had sparked the unrest has, instead of restoring order, emboldened protesters, who are now pushing for further political concessions and have called for a mass anti-government demonstration to be held tomorrow. Impacts Businesses may postpone investment decisions until after the national dialogue, posing a risk of economic slowdown. Damage to the reputation of the security forces threatens to foster long-term resentment, undermining law enforcement. The protests may spur anti-corruption protests in other parts of the region, such as Guatemala.

COVID-19 crisis may not benefit Sahelian jihadists

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
State Security ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Subject COVID-19 and jihadists. Significance Jihadist attacks are rising across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin regions, as are conflict fatalities more broadly. However, the increase cannot be solely, or even primarily, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The remote areas where jihadists fight are in the early stages of their respective outbreaks; much of the increased violence reflects pre-existing conflict dynamics. Many of the fatalities, meanwhile, are caused by state security forces, who may be taking advantage of the pandemic, even more than jihadists are, to target civilians with relative impunity. Impacts Sensitive talks between humanitarian aid groups and jihadists may determine the level of famine in parts of the Sahel over the short term. Relationships between governments and human rights groups and journalists will grow even tenser during COVID-19-related restrictions. Accurate information about conflict zones may become harder to obtain amid restrictions and increased government defensiveness.

US-led air campaign will shape long-term fight in Iraq

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Actual Impact ◽  
Political Choices ◽  
External Actors ◽  
Military Campaign

Significance The United States and Iran are both fighting against ISG in Iraq, but their rivalry elsewhere, such as taking opposite sides in Syria and Yemen, and historic enmity has prevented explicit cooperation. They are likely to be the two most significant external actors in helping Baghdad reclaim Iraqi territory from ISG. Impacts The symbolic impact of capturing Tikrit would be significant, but its actual impact on the wider military campaign will be limited. It would provide Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi time to prepare Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to a greater level of readiness. However, rapid success of militia forces could lead to even more difficult political choices.

Kashmir unrest raises insurrection risks for India

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type

Significance Kashmir has witnessed violent public protests and clashes with security forces since the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen leader Burhan Wani on July 8 by Indian security forces. At least 58 people have already been killed and over 3,000 injured, and the violence show few signs of diminishing. Impacts The economic impact of the Kashmir unrest is likely to be locally concentrated. Regional economic gains, especially in the tourism and agricultural sectors, will be set back. India-Pakistan peace talks, necessary for a long-term solution in Kashmir, will be hampered by hawks on both sides.

South Africa's Mboweni will aid Ramaphosa reform push

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
The Government

Significance A former South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor and minister of labour, Mboweni faces a crucial first few weeks in his new post as the government attempts to placate rating agencies and engineer an economic turnaround. Mboweni’s initial moves may be determined by Moody’s credit rating review expected today. Impacts In the short term, Mboweni’s appointment will be a boost for Ramaphosa’s bid for fiscal consolidation and growth. In the medium-to-long term, Mboweni will likely prove a more polarising figure inside the ANC than Nene. Allegations linking the Economic Freedom Fighters with a major banking scandal could give Mboweni and the ANC an early political 'win'. Mboweni's previous social media utterances could be further exploited by opponents, both left and right, in the months ahead.

Police activity in Tunisia may hinder transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Sharp Focus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Police Activity

Subject Tunisia's police service. Significance Elements of the state security sector have been acting autonomously from the state since the Arab uprisings. The threat of terrorism continues to facilitate this trajectory, and parliamentary and presidential elections planned for 2019 could bring the issue into sharp focus. Impacts Increased terrorist attacks may prompt the government to allow the police greater leeway when investigating suspects. Victims of police mistreatment are unlikely to secure justice. Increased terrorist attacks may lead to legislation to strengthen the security forces’ ability to avoid transparency.

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