scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

scholarly journals Rallies around the Flag-Draped Coffins: The Electoral Effects of Security Force Casualties in Terror Attacks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This article examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

The Value of Making an Extra Effort: Campaign Spending and Electoral Outcomes in Recent British General Elections—A Decomposition Approach

1996 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 2081-2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
C J Pattie ◽  
R J Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
Extra Effort ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Modelling Procedure ◽  
General Elections

An increasing volume of research has shown that the amount which British political parties spend on constituency campaigns at general elections is related to their relative performance there. Because parties are better able to mobilise campaign resources where they are already electorally strong, and because they tend to remain strong in the same parts of the country over long sequences of elections, however, there are technical problems in separating out the ‘real’ impacts of campaign spending from those which reflect prior strength. A two-stage modelling procedure is introduced here which allows such separation: it provides strong evidence that where parties spend more than the average for a constituency of a certain type, they garner electoral rewards accordingly.

scholarly journals Terrorist campaigns and the growth of the Muslim population: a reply

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Clara Egger ◽  
Raul Magni-Berton
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Religious Conversion ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract A recently published paper in this journal (Choi, 2021) establishes a statistical link between, on the one hand, Islamist terrorist campaigns – including terrorist attacks and online propaganda – and, on the other the growth of the Muslim population. The author explains this result by stating that successful campaigns lead some individuals to convert to Islam. In this commentary, we intend to reply to this article by focusing on the impact of terrorist attacks on religious conversion. We first show that Choi's results suffer from theoretical flaws – a failure to comprehensively unpack the link between violence and conversion – and methodological shortcomings – a focus on all terrorist groups over a period where Islamist attacks were rare. This leads us to replicate Choi's analysis by distinguishing Islamist and non-Islamist terror attacks on a more adequate timeframe. By doing so, we no longer find empirical support for the relationship between terror attacks and the growth of the Muslim population. However, our analyses suggest that such a hypothesis may hold but only in contexts where the level and intensity of political violence are high.

Anatomy of a Violent Protest Wave: Understanding the Mechanisms of Escalation and De-Escalation in Far-Right and Anti-Fascist Street Clashes

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-209
Author(s):  
Leanne C. Serbulo
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
State Security ◽  
Social Polarization ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract With the rise of right-wing populist ideologies and ensuing social polarization, political violence has become more widespread. Between 2017 and 2019, far-right extremists and anti-fascists engaged in more than twenty violent protest clashes in Portland, Oregon, USA. Through a protest event analysis of those clashes supplemented with a case study of the protest wave, this paper explores how the mechanisms of radicalization and de-radicalization operate when two violent protest movements collide and interact with state security forces. The three-way interaction among a movement, counter-movement, and the police can produce unanticipated outcomes. For example, rather than de-escalating the situation, police underbidding resulted in an increase in violence between the two movements. Understanding how the mechanisms of radicalization and de-radicalization function in a movement/counter-movement protest cycle can provide insight into the ways in which a movement’s strategy and their adversaries’ responses to it can increase or decrease levels of violence.

Thai Buddhism, Thai Buddhists and the southern conflict

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan McCargo
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Local Identity ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Thailand's ‘southern border provinces’ of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat – along with four districts of neighbouring Songkhla – are the site of fiery political violence characterised by daily killings. The area was historically a Malay sultanate, and was only loosely under Thai suzerainty until the early twentieth century. During the twentieth century there was periodic resistance to Bangkok's attempts to suppress local identity and to incorporate this largely Malay-speaking, Muslim-majority area into a predominantly Buddhist nation-state. This resistance proved most intense during the 1960s and 1970s, when various armed groups (notably PULO [Patani United Liberation Organization] and BRN [Barisan Revolusi Nasional]) waged war on the Thai state, primarily targeting government officials and the security forces. In the early 1980s, the Prem Tinsulanond government brokered a deal with these armed groups and proceeded to co-opt the Malay-Muslim elite. By crafting mutually beneficial governance, security and financial arrangements, the Thai state was able largely to placate local political demands.

The Security-Force Ethnicity (SFE) Project: Introducing a new dataset

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Lorenzo Johnson ◽  
Ches Thurber
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Officer Corps ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Ethnic Representation ◽  
Conflict Processes ◽  
State Security ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Relationship

The ethnic composition of state security forces is believed to have important effects on the dynamics of conflict processes, but data limitations have impeded our ability to test such hypotheses cross-nationally until now. To address this problem, the Security Force Ethnicity dataset provides time-series, group-level measures of the ethnic composition of military forces in the Middle East between 1946 and 2013. We draw on an extensive review of case studies and histories to produce unique ordinal codings for participation rates in the officer corps and in the rank and file. We demonstrate the utility of the data through empirical applications, examining the relationship between military ethnic composition and the incidence of coups and repression. Our findings illustrate the theoretical and empirical importance of disaggregating ethnic representation in the military from inclusion in other institutions of the state.

Weak security forces threaten South African stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Police Reform ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Significance These have long been matters of serious concern. President Cyril Ramaphosa on August 5 responded with a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the minister of defence, closed down the ministry of state security and moved intelligence agencies into the presidency. Impacts Planned cuts to security force budgets will be politically unsustainable. Ramaphosa’s decision to retain Minister of Police Bheki Cele in post casts doubt on the prospects of much-needed police reform. Incorporating intelligence functions into the presidency may speed reforms but also poses long-term dangers of more abuses.

Revolt on the left

2018 ◽  
pp. 34-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Labour Party ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

This chapter offers an account of the Labour Party between the 2015 and 2017 general elections. It explains why Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader and how the party moved further to the left. It examines the very different responses to Corbyn’s leadership from within the party, and why he was both challenged for the party leadership by his MPs and able to defend his position with enormous support from the mass membership. It finishes by examining how, after languishing in the polls, Labour defied expectations on polling day by dramatically increasing its vote share.

Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Andrew Boutton
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Military Assistance ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Assistance Programs ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Distinct Mechanism ◽  
Novel Theory ◽  
Military Support

AbstractThis article offers an explanation for the failures of US military assistance programs in some countries. The author argues that the effects of military aid are conditional upon the vulnerability of the recipient regime. Power consolidation by an insecure leader often provokes violent opposition. However, because military aid strengthens the security forces of the recipient state, it generates a moral hazard that encourages exclusionary power consolidation, with the expectation that continued military aid will help manage violent blowback. Using proxies for regime vulnerability and an instrument for US military aid, the study shows that military aid increases anti-regime violence in new regimes (particularly new democracies) and in all personalist regimes. In contrast, military assistance has no effect on violence in established, non-personalist regimes. The article develops a novel theory of how regime characteristics condition responses to external military support, and identifies a distinct mechanism through which military aid increases domestic political violence.

Martyrdom in North Africa Following the Arab Spring and the Process of Transitional Justice

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas DeGeorges
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
State Security ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Arab Spring

In Chapter 7, Thomas DeGeorges argues that martyrdom has played an important role in the transitional justice processes both before and after the Arab Spring of Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. While martyrdom and transitional justice are not traditionally associated with one another, he makes the case that martyrs involve people who are victims of what may be framed as political violence, whether committed by state security forces or unknown perpetrators. In this context, martyrs may be understood in the frame of victims addressed by transitional justice, but also as icons for social or political transformation. Broadly speaking, claims regarding martyrdom were important in these countries insofar as martyrs were held up as symbols for whom reform must be pursued.

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