Drought Risk Management in the Caribbean Community: Early Warning Information and Other Risk Reduction Considerations

Adaptive policy-making on drought risk management requires integrated assessment of uncertain future developments, policy actions and combinations of those. Preferably, such an assessment is based on quantified drought risks, defined as the integral of drought probability and economic consequences for all relevant sectors impacted by drought. The investment costs of proposed policy measures and strategies (various measures combined) can then be compared with the expected risk reduction.We developed a method and assessment instrument to explore drought risk in the Netherlands, now and in the future, as well as in response to policy actions. By quantifying the amount of risk reduction in euro&#8217;s/year, we were able to assess costs and benefits of the investments proposed by various stakeholders.&#160; The method has been applied in support of the Netherlands drought risk management strategy as part of the National Delta Program which has to prepare the Netherlands for climate change. Drought risks were quantified by carrying out simulations with the National Water Model and coupled impact modules for five water users: agriculture, shipping, drinking water, industry water, and nature areas. A qualitative approach was taken for the drought effects on nature areas.With the approach taken, we were able to assess costs and benefits of the investment strategy proposed by various stakeholders. The risk reduction of a measure differs per scenario, per year and per combination of measures, while the annual costs are the same. Results showed that the strategy was cost-effective under a scenario with ongoing climate change, in which the combined probability of precipitation deficits and low river flows increases. The method also provided insight into the most opportune time to implement the measures, considering uncertainty about future climate change. This provided relevant input for adaptive policy planning on the national scale.

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Strengthening drought risk management and policy: UNESCO International Hydrological Programme's case studies from Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean

Water Policy ◽

10.2166/wp.2016.223 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 18 (S2) ◽

pp. 245-261 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Koen Verbist ◽

Abou Amani ◽

Anil Mishra ◽

Blanca Jiménez Cisneros

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Risk Management ◽

Latin America ◽

Early Warning ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Management Plans ◽

The Caribbean ◽

Eastern And Southern Africa ◽

Monitoring And Early Warning

Droughts have resulted in significant socio-economic impacts in the regions of Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), especially in developing countries. The main gaps to mitigate its effects, identified in both Africa and LAC regions, include a lack of human and institutional capacity, a lack of access to relevant early warning information for decision-making, the identification of vulnerable communities within the countries and the integration of these two components into drought management policies. UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO-IHP) has been providing support to enhance human capacity, policy guidance and tools to the countries to address drought-related challenges and this paper presents some examples. Through capacity building at regional institutions in Western, Eastern and Southern Africa, drought monitoring and early warning tools have been transferred and validated for inclusion into national climate risk management plans. In LAC, a drought atlas was produced to identify the frequency of meteorological droughts and the exposure of population to droughts. Also in LAC, national drought observatories were developed in two pilot countries, providing locally relevant and actionable drought monitoring and early warning information, socio-economic vulnerabilities and appropriate drought indicators for decision-making to strengthen current drought policies for these countries.

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