scholarly journals Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 39-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Equilibrium Real Interest Rate

Much has happened in the world of central banking in the past decade. In this paper, I focus on three issues associated with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates and the nexus between monetary policy and financial stability: 1) whether we are moving toward a permanently lower long-run equilibrium real interest rate; 2) what steps can be taken to mitigate the constraints imposed by the ZLB; and 3) whether and how financial stability considerations should be incorporated in the conduct of monetary policy. These important topics deserve the attention of both academic and government professionals.

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)

Monetary Policy Spillovers across the Pacific when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edda Claus ◽  
Iris Claus ◽  
Leo Krippner
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Shocks

To conduct monetary policy effectively, central banks need to understand the transmission of monetary policy into financial markets. In this paper we investigate the effects of Japanese and U.S. monetary policy shocks on their own asset markets, and the spillovers into each other's markets. Because short-term nominal interest rates have been effectively zero in Japan since January 1998 and in the United States from late 2008, however, monetary policy shocks cannot be quantified by considering observable changes in short-term market interest rates. Therefore, in our analysis we use a shadow short rate―a quantitative measure of overall conventional and unconventional monetary policy that is estimated from the term structure of interest rates. Our results suggest that the operation of monetary policy at the zero lower bound of interest rates alters the transmission of shocks. In particular, we find a limited response of exchange rates during the first episode of unconventional monetary policy in Japan but a significant impact since 2006.

READING KEYNES AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND: THE GREAT DEPRESSION, THE LIQUIDITY TRAP, AND UNCONVENTIONAL POLICY

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Sutch
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

John Maynard Keynes’s analysis of the Great Depression has strong parallels to recent theorizing about the post-2008 Great Recession. There are also remarkable similarities between the two historical episodes: the collapse of demand for new fixed investment, the role of the zero lower bound liquidity trap in hampering conventional monetary policy, the multi-year period of near-zero short-term rates, and the protracted period of subnormal prosperity. A major difference between then and now is that monetary authorities in the recent situation actively pursued an unconventional policy with massive purchases of long-term securities. Keynes couldn’t convince authorities of his era to pursue such a plan, but it was precisely the monetary policy he advocated for a depressed economy stuck at the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates.

New Chicago Views on Inflation Control: The Neo-Fisherian Approach and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Peter Spahn
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

Abstract Whereas in former times, the ‘Chicago View’ in monetary policy stood for the Quantity Theory and money supply control, it is now the centre of unconventional approaches in macro theory. The Neo-Fisherian proposal suggests, in the case of low inflation and nominal interest rates pegged to the zero-lower bound, to increase policy rates immediately to the long-run equilibrium value that corresponds to the ‘natural’ real interest rate and the inflation target. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level believes that goods prices jump to a level that validates the long-run sustainability condition of government debt even if central banks abstain from monetising. Both views are criticized for analytical and empirical reasons. Zusammenfassung Während in früheren Zeiten die ‘Chicago-Sicht’ in der Geldpolitik für die Quantitätstheorie und das Konzept der Geldmengensteuerung stand, werden heute damit unkonventionelle Positionen in der makroökonomischen Theorie assoziiert. Der neue Fisher-Ansatz empfiehlt, im Fall niedriger Inflation und einer Beschränkung durch die Null-Zins-Grenze die Zentralbankzinsen direkt auf das Niveau anzuheben, dass durch den ‘natürlichen’ Realzins und die Zielinflationsrate bestimmt ist. Die Fiskalische Theorie der Preise behauptet, dass das Güterpreisniveau auf einen Wert springt, der die langfristige reale Tragfähigkeit der Staatsschulden sichert, selbst wenn die Notenbank keine Monetisierung betreibt. Beide Positionen können empirisch nicht überzeugen und werden einer analytischen Kritik unterzogen. JEL Classification: E52, E58

scholarly journals Transmission mechanism of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy in the conditions of zero bound on nominal interest rates

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominika Brózda
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

The experience of Japan from the 90s of the twentieth century and the recent global financial crisis has shown that the zero lower bound problem has ceased to be a theoretical curiosity and became the subject of intense scientific discussion. This issue is closely linked with John Maynard Keynes’s liquidity trap. The phenomenon of the zero lower bound is very controversial. Not all economists agree that it may restrict the effectiveness of the central bank’s actions. The aim of the article is to present the views of economists on this transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the zero lower bound. The paper also attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy at zero nominal interest rates.

scholarly journals Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints - READING KEYNES AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND: THE GREAT DEPRESSION, THE LIQUIDITY TRAP, AND UNCONVENTIONAL POLICY

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Sutch
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
History Of

John Maynard Keynes’s analysis of the Great Depression has strong parallels to recent theorizing about the post-2008 Great Recession. There are also remarkable similarities between the two historical episodes: the collapse of demand for new fixed investment, the role of the zero-lower-bound liquidity trap in hampering conventional monetary policy, the multi-year period of near-zero short-term rates, and the protracted period of subnormal prosperity. A major difference between then and now that monetary authorities in the recent situation actively pursued an unconventional policy with massive purchases of long-term securities. Keynes couldn’t convince authorities of his era to pursue such a plan, but it was precisely the monetary policy he advocated for a depressed economy stuck at the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates.

scholarly journals The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (89) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaqian Chen ◽  
Daria Finocchiaro ◽  
Jesper Lindé ◽  
Karl Walentin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Model Features

We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document