Business cycle synchronization and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the Euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries' degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.

Diversity of Monetary Regimes and Reactions to the Pandemic Crisis

This chapter analyses to what extent the type of monetary regime in three Balkans countries (Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia) determines the scope and nature of reactions to the pandemic crisis in the short run (providing liquidity to different sectors) and considers the possibilities for a long-term recovery. A comparative perspective is particularly suitable for the Balkan countries with great institutional diversity of the monetary regimes. In particular, the two members of the EU, Bulgaria and Romania, have been following different principles of monetary regimes for decades (Currency Board versus discretionary Monetary Policy). Both Bulgaria and Romania follow closely the ECB monetary policy. Serbia, which is outside the EU, is not affected by the constraints of European integration and actually has its independent monetary policy (although the Euro is also an important external anchor).

Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation

The interferences among some financial, economic and monetary variables are checked as an indicator of economic performance in the long run and for the monetary policy applied between the Great Moderation (GM) of 1987-2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. For achieving this target, some Granger causality tests are applied to GDP growth, credit growth, and lending interest of 36 countries of the EU and the OECD for the full sample of 1987-2012 and the sub-sample of 2002-2007. Results corroborate the interferences among these variables for the discretionary monetary policy applied immediately after the GM, within the “Ad Hoc Era” or “lax period”, and independence when monetary policy was correctly applied and rules-based.

Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound

Central banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central bank fears the worst-case location of the ELB, monetary conditions will be more expansionary in the period before the liquidity trap.

DOES THE PROCYCLICALITY OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AFFECT FINANCIAL STABILITY IN CEMAC?

The objective of this article is to analyze the effects of procyclical variations of the capital requirements for risk coverage on financial stability in the CEMAC[1]. In order to achieve this objective, we have specified and estimated a panel VAR model using the structural factorization method on quarterly Central Bank data over the period 2006-2017. Firstly, the results show that procyclical capital adjustments in the CEMAC region lead to short-term financial instability through the contraction of credit to the private sector. Secondly, despite the low level of financial development, the effects maintained by the adjustment of monetary policy instruments in the short term remain significant on price stability. Finally, in the long term, the procyclicality of regulatory capital makes it possible to revive economic activity and guarantee financial stability. These results lead us to recommend the adoption of a more discretionary monetary policy so as to make more procyclical the capital requirement. [1] Economic Community of Central African States comprising Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

An Analysis of Turkey to Taylor Rule in the Context of Rule-Based and Discretionary Monetary Policy Debate

The readiness of central bank to adhere to a rule of monetary policy has always been one of the topics discussed in the economic literature. Policy decisions undertaken by monetary authorities in uncertain and unpredictable environments are the main reason for this debate. According to the Taylor Rule, that holds the rules and discretionary policies, the policy rate of the central bank is necessary to be determined in such a way that it provides a balance between the financial and the real sector that will increase foreign exchange inflows and not reduce investment expenditures. Therefore, the study examines the validity of the extended Taylor Rule for Turkish economy using the GMM method for the period 2001: 08-2017: 09. This method is preferred because its advantage to achieve strong and consistent coefficients even under weak assumptions, is based on strong assumptions that depend on the consistency of estimators. Findings obtained as a result of Taylor rule analysis support the studies in the literature and suggest that the rule is apparently valid in economies with low inflation rates and stable growth rates. In this context, in the absence of support for the Taylor rule, the TCMB should determine a policy rate that will provide internal and external equilibrium, and in doing so, the inflation-deficit variable should be used as an indicator.

Currency Board Policy and Economic Development of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Context of European integration

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a small and open economy in transition with great distrust in local authorities and institutions. The country applies a currency board as the only acceptable and optimal exchange rate system in order to protect its monetary policy from political influences. The strict rules of the currency board provide monetary stability and confidence in the domestic currency, but disable the pursuit of discretionary monetary policy and limit autonomous fiscal policy for the purpose of stimulating an investment cycle and economic development without coordinated accompanying support of monetary policy.The subject of this paper is an analysis of the short-term and long-term effects of the currency board application in Bosnia and Herzegovina in conditions of increasing liberalization through the process of European integration. Given the negative consequences and limitations of the currency board system, this paper analyses in particular the possibility of introducing a central bank with discretionary monetary policy instruments, as well as other measures that can influence the overvaluation of the domestic currency exchange rate.The scientific methods used in the paper are: inductive-deductive method, descriptive method and statistical method. The conclusion and recommendations areobtained by using inductive-deductive method and descriptions of current economictrends based on numerous secondary statistical data presented in the tables andcharts.