Measuring inflation expectations: How stable are density forecasts?

Author(s):  
Christoph Becker
2019 ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
Y. Yu. Ponomarev

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.


2019 ◽  
pp. 45-54
Author(s):  
E.Y. Sokolova ◽  
A.S. Tanasova

At the end of 2018 — the very beginning of 2019 Russia faced negative consequences of the economic measures that took place in 2018, such as the retirement age rising, tightening sanctions against Russia, VAT rising which caused increased inflation expectations of people. The Bank of Russia increased the key rate in response. All these measures lead to decrease of domestic demand, and not stimulate economic growth. The article examines the possibility of using the monetary policy method of credit restriction to fulfil the presidential act to stimulate economic growth.


Author(s):  
Kevin Dowd ◽  
Andrew J. G. Cairns ◽  
David P. Blake ◽  
Guy Coughlan ◽  
David Epstein ◽  
...  

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