Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-114-133 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 114-133

Author(s):

G. I. Idrisov ◽

Y. Yu. Ponomarev

Keyword(s):

Federal Government ◽

Public Debt ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Expert Assessment ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

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Effect of Public Debt on Public Investment in Nigeria: 1985-2018

Asian Journal of Economics Business and Accounting ◽

10.9734/ajeba/2021/v21i230353 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 98-114

Author(s):

Chukwu, Kenechukwu Origin ◽

Ogbonnaya-Udo, Nneka ◽

Chimarume Blessing Ubah

Keyword(s):

Federal Government ◽

Public Debt ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Public Investment ◽

Independent Variables ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Distributed Lag Models ◽

Short Run ◽

Auto Regressive

This study examined the effect of Nigeria public debt on public investment from 1985-2018. Data for the analysis was obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin and the study chooses Nigeria as its sample. ARDL Auto-regressive Distributed lag models was used to test the effect of the independent variables (Public Debt, Budget Deficit, Debt Servicing, Public Debt to GDP Ratio) on the dependent variable (Public Investment). The cointegration test found the existence of long-run relationship among the investigated variables. The short run result shows that public debt has insignificant effect on public investment in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends among others that Federal government should be fiscal responsible by channeling borrowed funds to investments that will bring growth in the economy. Government should tackle waste and corruption by making sure that funds borrowed and allocated for investment should be transparently and judiciously utilized in the provision of infrastructure. Debts should be taken only when necessary and should be for investment and not for payment of salaries.

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Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

Studia Universitatis Babe-Bolyai Oeconomica ◽

10.2478/subboec-2019-0013 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 64 (3) ◽

pp. 23-38

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Debt ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Debt Service ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

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Impact of Public Debt, Deficit and Debt Financing on Private Investment in a Large Country: Evidence from the United States

World Journal of Applied Economics ◽

10.22440/wjae.6.2.3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 139-161

Author(s):

Amir Kia

Keyword(s):

Public Debt ◽

Public Investment ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Private Investment ◽

Adjustment Costs ◽

The United States ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Large Country ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

This paper analyses the direct impact of fiscal variables on private investment. The current literature ignores one or more fiscal variables and, in many cases, the foreign financing of debt. In this paper, an aggregate investment function for an economy in which firms incur adjustment costs in their investment process is developed. The developed model incorporates the direct impact of government expenditure, public debt and investment, deficits and foreign-financed debt on private investment. The model is tested on US data. It is found that public investment does not have any impact on private investment, but government expenditure, deficit, debt and foreign-financed debt crowd out private investment over the long run. However, deficit crowds in the private investment over the short run.

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The Effect of Deregulation on Employee Earnings: Pilots, Flight Attendants, and Mechanics, 1959–1992

ILR Review ◽

10.1177/001979399604900203 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 49 (2) ◽

pp. 223-242 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Pierre-Yves Crémieux

Keyword(s):

Flight Attendants ◽

Firm Level ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Long Run ◽

Airline Deregulation ◽

Level Data ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Sectional Analysis

Previous studies of the effect of the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act on employee earnings have reported mixed results: some have found no negative long-run effect of deregulation and others have found a negative effect of up to 10%. Most of these studies relied on cross-sectional analysis of a few years' data. This paper, in contrast, examines the long-term trends in airline earnings, based on 34 years of newly collected firm-level data from the Department of Transportation's Form 41 and airline workers' unions. The author finds that although deregulation had no statistically significant effect on the earnings of mechanics, it strongly affected the earnings of flight attendants and pilots. Flight attendants' earnings were at least 12% lower by 1985 and 39% lower by 1992 than they would have been if deregulation had not occurred, and the corresponding shortfalls for pilots were 12% and 22%.

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How Deep Are the Roots of Economic Development?

Journal of Economic Literature ◽

10.1257/jel.51.2.325 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 51 (2) ◽

pp. 325-369 ◽

Cited By ~ 286

Author(s):

Enrico Spolaore ◽

Romain Wacziarg

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Growth And Development ◽

Empirical Work ◽

Empirical Literature ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Economic Growth And Development ◽

Long Run ◽

Proximate Determinants ◽

New Literature

The empirical literature on economic growth and development has moved from the study of proximate determinants to the analysis of ever deeper, more fundamental factors, rooted in long-term history. A growing body of new empirical work focuses on the measurement and estimation of the effects of historical variables on contemporary income by explicitly taking into account the ancestral composition of current populations. The evidence suggests that economic development is affected by traits that have been transmitted across generations over the very long run. This article surveys this new literature and provides a framework to discuss different channels through which intergenerationally transmitted characteristics may impact economic development, biologically (via genetic or epigenetic transmission) and culturally (via behavioral or symbolic transmission). An important issue is whether historically transmitted traits have affected development through their direct impact on productivity, or have operated indirectly as barriers to the diffusion of productivity-enhancing innovations across populations. (JEL J11, O33, O47, Z13)

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Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

Journal of Tax Reform ◽

10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 255-266

Author(s):

G. Ganchev ◽

◽

I. Todorov ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Tax Revenue ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

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The New Wave of Currency Devaluations in Africa – Will the Devalued Birr Help the Coffee Exports?

Afrika Tanulmányok / Hungarian Journal of African Studies ◽

10.15170/at.2018.12.4.7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (4.) ◽

pp. 101-118

Author(s):

Szabolcs Pasztor

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Current Account Deficit ◽

Balance Of Payments ◽

New Wave ◽

Long Run ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Coffee Sector ◽

The Impact

Despite the fact that currency devaluations are likely to have a negative effect on the economy in the long run, Ethiopia devalued its national currency, the birr (ETB), by 15 percent in 2017. They turned to this option in the hope of attracting more investments from abroad, decreasing import bills, improving the current account deficit and giving a boost to the exports of the coffee sector. A couple of months later, the impact seems to be promising because the export has been revived in some areas. However, it has to be stressed that the imported commodities may experience a price increase, there can be a widening balance of payments deficit and rising inflation. The paper aims to shed more light on the short- and long-term impacts of currency devaluations in the developing countries with a special emphasis on Ethiopia. Also, the recent Ethiopian measure is to be analyzed in greater detail highlighting the impacts on export earnings, import bills, the balance of payments, and on the overall competitiveness of the coffee sector.

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Pengaruh Harga Emas Dunia, Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia dan Indeks Produksi Industri Terhadap Indeks Saham di Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Dalam Jangka Panjang dan Jangka Pendek (Periode Januari 2005-Desember 2015)

Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan ◽

10.20473/vol4iss20177pp515-530 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (7) ◽

pp. 515

Author(s):

Dwi Purnamasari ◽

Raditya Sukmana

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Industrial Production ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Stock Index ◽

Short Term ◽

Long Run ◽

The World ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Positive Effect

This research aims to know the influence of long-term and short-term world gold price, the price of crude oil to the world, and the index of industrial production against the stock index at the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) during the period January to December 2015-2015. The object of this research is the stock index at the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Types of data used are secondary data. This research method using technical analysis with quantitative method of Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results showed that significant influence world gold prices in the long term and the short term against a stock index of JII. While the price of crude oil the world significant negative effect on the long run, and a significant positive effect on the short term. The index of industrial production turned out to be only a significant effect in the long term, but not in the short term.

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Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?

Equilibrium ◽

10.24136/eq.2020.029 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 675-695

Author(s):

Sami Oinonen ◽

Matti Viren

Keyword(s):

Value Added ◽

Point Of View ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽

Long Run ◽

Relevant Variables ◽

Policy Credibility ◽

Survey Responses ◽

Real Returns

Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns. Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1?2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables. Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target.

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