Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Han ◽  
Gang Li
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Equity Options ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Macro News ◽  
One Year

Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put equity options, is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns at daily, weekly, and monthly to semiannual horizons. This return predictive power is incremental to existing return predictors, and it is significant both in sample and out of sample. Furthermore, IVS can forecast macroeconomic news up to one year ahead. The return predictability concentrates around macro news announcement. Common informed trading in equity options offers an integrated explanation for the ability of IVS to predict both future stock market returns and real economic activity. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

scholarly journals Market expectation shifts in option-implied volatilities in the US and UK stock markets during the Brexit vote

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 366-379
Author(s):  
Artem Bielykh ◽  
Sergiy Pysarenko ◽  
Dong Meng Ren ◽  
Oleksandr Kubatko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Market Expectations ◽  
Sharpe Ratios ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

This paper investigates the effect of the Brexit vote on the connection between UK stock market expectations and US stock market returns. To gauge UK stock market expectations, the option-implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 index are calculated in the period starting five months before and ending four months after the Brexit referendum. To keep the analysis “clean”, it stops right before the 2016 US presidential elections. It uses an OLS regression to estimate the change in the relationship between US and UK stock market expectations.The main findings show that the US and UK stock markets became somewhat less integrated four months after the Brexit referendum compared to the five months before it. The S&P 500 Index returns have a statistically significant impact on implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 only before the Brexit referendum. However, the British risk-free rate (LIBOR) became a statistically significant factor affecting FTSE 100 implied volatilities only after Brexit. This analysis may be used by decision-makers in the money management industry to act appropriately during Black Swan events. When UK citizens unexpectedly voted in favor of Brexit, the risk-free rate dropped, making it cheaper to invest, increasing the Sharpe ratios of equity portfolios. Coupled with increased uncertainty, this caused portfolio reallocations. In turn, expected volatility measured by options-implied volatility increased. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to thank Olesia Verchenko for critique, a KSE M.A., external defense reviewer for helpful comments.

scholarly journals IPO Waves: How Market Performances Influence The Market Timing Of IPO?

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1679
Author(s):  
Firas Batnini ◽  
Moez Hammami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Autocorrelation Analysis ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this paper is to study the impact of stock markets on Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). Several studies have shown that the need for financing is not the main trigger for an IPOfavorable market conditions may play a more important part. This work prove the existence of a significate relationship between past stock market returns and the number of IPOs. Before setting the date for an IPO, managers analyze long term financial market yields, a bullish stock market over a six month/ one year period encourages IPOs activities. In the other hand, even a negative performance but over a two-year period may have the same effect. They expect a stock market inversion. These results were obtained by autocorrelation analysis and count regression.

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