We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/
general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic
risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty
risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical
model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity
returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad
macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical
model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic
risk.