Banks and Economic Growth: A Basic Disequilibrium Model with Five Rationing Regimes

In this paper, an inductive research methodology and the principle of parsimony are applied to reconsider a central issue in economics and macro-finance, namely the determinants of economic growth and the role of the financial sector. A simple framework is derived, characterised by information imperfections and the absence of market clearing. The literature on rationing has identified the need to consider differing rationing regimes but has not included a banking sector. Such a set-up is presented in this paper, which identifies the link between credit and economic growth under differing rationing regimes, with varying consequences for inflation. The familiar case of money creation resulting in inflation features as a special case within the general framework. Others are the possibility of asset price bubbles and collapses, non-inflationary growth despite full employment, and instability in banking systems. The model is consistent with empirical evidence that has been difficult to reconcile with conventional equilibrium models. It is found that within this simple rationing framework, banks, left to their own devices, do not necessarily deliver stable, non-inflationary growth, and there is no reason to expect their behaviour to optimise social welfare. Some implications for research and policy are discussed.

Governing Financialization

Capitalism has become ‘financialized’. Since the 1970s, the swelling of financial markets and asset price bubbles has occurred alongside weaker underlying economic growth. Yet financialization was not a spontaneous market development—it was rather deeply political. States fuelled this process through policies of financial liberalization. Britain lies at the heart of this story. The British state’s radical financial liberalizations in the 1970s and 1980s were instrumental in creating a financialized global economic order in which the City of London emerged as a central hub. But why did the British state propel financialization? The conventional wisdom points to the lobbying power of financial elites and the strength of neoliberal ideology. However, this book offers an alternative explanation through an in-depth exploration of declassified state archives. By examining key financial liberalizations in the 1970s and 1980s—including the notorious ‘Big Bang’—this book argues that these policies were not part of an intentional scheme to create a new finance-led economic model. Instead, they were designed to address immediate governing dilemmas related to the grinding ‘stagflation’ crisis and its aftershocks. In this era, British governments found themselves trapped between global competitive pressures to enforce painful domestic adjustment and national political pressures to maintain existing living standards. Financial liberalization was pursued in a trial-and-error manner to navigate this dilemma. By unleashing financial markets, the state hoped to either postpone the worst effects of the crisis, or enact tough economic restructuring in an arm’s-length fashion. Financialization was an accidental outcome, not an intentional result.

Are Real Estate Prices Evolving into an Asset Price Bubble?

The development of real estate prices is of extraordinary importance for the fi nancial and economic system, as undesirable developments could endanger fi nancial stability – as seen in the fi nancial crisis of 2008 and 2009. This applies not only to speculators, but also to private households, which have to borrow to pay the purchase price. The market has been “fueled” in particular by the monetary policy of the central banks – expansion of the money supply and low interest rates. Investors are looking for investment opportunities due to the money glut, and the real estate market still promises a return. Furthermore, many people looking to build are willing to go into debt to buy a property. This demand ultimately has a driving eff ect on real estate prices. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the development of real estate prices in the most important OECD countries with those of Germany. A model of real estate prices is presented, which takes into account the most important indicators and provides information on when a price bubble exists. The model shows that asset price bubbles can be identified in some OECD countries. In Germany, on the other hand, there are only signs of a price bubble in a few major cities. Since private debt is low, it does not seem to be a problem across the board in Germany. A general problem remains with regard to the timely detectability of price bubbles.

Asset bubbles in explaining top income shares

This paper considers the role of asset price bubbles (crashes) as an important determinant in seeking a further explanation for top income shares. The asset price bubbles caused at least in part by monetary policies, along with other determinants such as top tax rates and innovativeness are the important drivers to explain the surge in top income shares. The empirical results show that correlation between asset bubbles and top inequality is positive and significant. The regression coefficient of stock and housing market bubbles have a positive effect on top income shares, while the stock and housing market crashes fail to reduce the surge in top income shares. In sum, as the asset markets grow, the share of income going to those at the very top increases and the accumulation of income accelerates if the duration of bubbles expands. Concentration of income at the very top is much more important when capital gains are counted as income.

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Central Bank Sterilization on Capital Inflows in Nigeria

This paper assesses the monetary policy response of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to increases in capital inflows into Nigeria using monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2017. It presents an econometric assessment of the degree to which the CBN sterilizes net foreign assets (NFA) in response to the capital flows, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The long run sterilization coefficient obtained suggests that the CBN successfully offset 95per cent of capital inflows in the period of analysis. Against the background of rising financial instability in Nigeria, the study illustrates how sterilization has not adequately tackled the major risks of capital inflows which resulted in asset price bubbles and bursts, equity capital inflows reversal, banking crisis, and currency depreciation which contributed, partly, to the economic recession in 2016. The paper argues that effective policy response to capital inflows must adequately address the major downside risks of capital inflows in the short and medium terms through some clearly defined capital flows management and macro-prudential measures.

Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations

I analyze an extension of the New Keynesian model that features overlapping generations of finitely lived agents and (stochastic) transitions to inactivity. In contrast with the standard model, the proposed framework allows for the existence of rational expectations equilibria with asset price bubbles. I study the conditions under which bubble-driven fluctuations may emerge and the type of monetary policy rules that may prevent them. I conclude by discussing some of the model’s welfare implications. (JEL E12, E32, E44, E52, E63)