Are EU Members’ Economies an “Engine” of the EU Candidates’ Economies?

Research background: Economic relations between countries members of the EU and EU candidates are very strong. Germany and France have the leading economies of the EU, are in the top ten economies worldwide, and drivers of EU development. Serbia has strong economic relations with Germany and France, especially with Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether Germany and France impact the development of Serbia. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine if there is a positive influence of a developed country on a developing country. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there is a long- and short-term positive relationship between Germany and France (EU members) and the Serbian economy (EU candidate). Research methodology: A Vector Error Correction Model is used to analyze quarterly data from 2002Q2 to 2018Q2. Results: The results showed a statistically significant long-term relationship between Germany and France and Serbia’s real GDPs, so EU members have a long-term positive impact on the economy of EU candidates. In the case of the French, there is a short-run positive impact on the Serbian economy. For Germany, it is not the case. Novelty: This paper fills the literature gap about the influence of a developed country on a developing country. Recommendations for policymakers in EU candidates could be that if they want to motivate people to accept the process of access to the EU, they must provide them with more information about long-run economic benefits from the association to the EU.

Absorption Rate as a Tool for Assessing the Dynamics of Development Activity

Research background: An assessment of the dynamics of the development of the housing market is critical for development activity and the institutions that finance it. Due to the capital intensity of development projects, it seems necessary to perform detailed analyses to be sure that the investment will find buyers and to know how much time it will take for this undertaking to be sold. The absorption rate reports it. Purpose: The aim of the article is, therefore, to verify the importance of the absorption rate in assessing the dynamics of property market development based on the example of housing development activity in Łódź. Research methodology: To achieve the aim, in the empirical part of the article, information on developers’ investments in Łódź was independently collected, and based on them, absorption ratios for several periods were estimated. Results: The study showed dynamic changes in the absorption rate, as well as its diversity depending on the type of building and location. That is why it is so important to analyze this indicator in developers’ activity, where the risk of recovering the capital engaged is very high. Novelty: In Poland, there are few publications on the given topic, and the existing analyses of the absorption rate in Poland, prepared for the largest Polish cities, do not include the division into specific locations or the type of real estate, which is why they are not sufficiently reliable information for developers.

The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Research background: CO2 emissions are considered to be the main reason for global warming, and for this reason, their regulation is a very important issue for governments. Due to the increasing use of energy, carbon dioxide emissions have increased dramatically over the past century, with a direct link to economic growth and development. The relationship between CO2 emissions, growth and energy consumption is therefore at the heart of current economic issues. Purpose: This study aimed at examining the relationship among economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy consumption in selected MENA countries, in the period 1995–2017. Research methodology: To prove these relations, a stationary data panel methodology is used supported by unitary root and cointegration tests. Results: The results indicated that there is a long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and GDP. In addition, it is found that the elasticity of CO2 emissions with respect to energy consumption is less than one (inelastic), and the elasticity of CO2 emissions with respect to GDP suggests the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve. An important finding is that energy consumption has a positive but relatively low effect on CO2 emissions. To reduce CO2 emissions, the countries of the MENA region are being called upon to increase significantly the use of renewable energies and the establishment of a more efficient energy policy.

An analysis of the effectiveness of bankruptcy prediction models – an industry approach

Research background: Bankruptcy prediction models are frequently used in research. However, an industry approach is not often carried out. Due to this, this study included trends observable between the number of bankruptcies and its prediction by models. Purpose: The aim of the paper is to verify if changes in the number of actual bankruptcy in individual industries are properly predicted by the models. Also, if analyzed models are providing consistent information according to the risk of bankruptcy between industries. Research methodology: The data were collected from the Orbis database and the Coface reports. The period included in the study is 2014–2019. 5 Polish bankruptcy prediction models were used: these by D. Hadasik, E. Mączyńska and M. Zawadzki, M. Pogodzińska and S. Sojak, D. Wierzba and the Poznan one. Results: The analyzed models do not properly predict changes in the number of bankruptcy in individual industries, however, 3 out of 5 correctly predicted the trend for the entire sample. Analyzed models often provide inconsistent information. Hence, it seems sensible to use more than a few models in any further analyzes. Novelty: In the literature of the subject, there are often carried out analyses focused on the effectiveness of bankruptcy prediction models regarding individual companies. This research is focused on the prediction of changes in the number of companies to be considered as at bankruptcy risk between industries, and also on comparing these models.

Testing the Validity of the Long Run Neutrality of Money in Nigeria

Research background: There is no consensus among scholars on the interaction effect between money supply, price, and wages despite various studies conducted to that effect. Purpose: This study investigates whether the neutrality of money assumption holds in the long run in Nigeria, using annual data from 1970 to 2018. Research methodology: The study utilized the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction (VECM) approach for estimation. Results: The results from the Phillips curve model contradict the classical school of economics assumption that money is neutral in the long run. This implies that in the Nigerian economy, money is not neutral in the long run. The long run Fishers’ effect model shows that the coefficient of LOG (CPI) exhibits a negative sign and is statistically significant at a 5% significant level, thus contradicting the hypothesis which states that a one percent increase in consumer prices will lead to an increase in the rate of interest by one percent. The coefficient of nominal money supply indicates a negative sign and insignificant statistically on the interest rate. The Short-run estimated results showed that the coefficient of the error correction term ECM (–1) indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically in the Fishers’ effect model. The result shows the actual and equilibrium values are corrected with adjustment speeds equal to 31% yearly. Novelty: The study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure an effective implementation of monetary targeting measures in fine-tuning the economy and curbing inflationary pressures.

What can SVAR models tell us about the impact of Public Expenditure Shocks on macroeconomic variables in algeria? A Slight Hint to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Research background: Public spending is a generator of economic growth as well as its components; this reality is more depicted in the era of the COVID-19 world pandemic where a recession in economic activities has touched all countries. Purpose: In this paper, we tried to study the impact of shocks in public expenditure on some macroeconomic variables in Algeria during the period (1970–2019). Research methodology: The VAR Structural models were used to study the response of these variables to shocks in public spending in Algeria. Results: The results of the modeling indicate a direct response of both exports and imports to a shock in the levels of public expenditure, but this response is relatively weak to the variable value of exports (especially in the short term), which is mainly due to the structure of the Algerian economy that is mainly dependent on the export of oil and gas, which in turn is mainly affected by international energy factors e.g. prices, supply, and demand. For the rate of inflation, there was an inverse response to shocks in the level of public spending. In the context of the global health and economic crisis, we will witness a further faltering of economic growth in Algeria. Novelty: Our contribution is a new feature of the application of the SVAR model in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on analyzing the impacts of public expenditure on exports and imports

Ranking and classification of cryptocurrency exchanges using the methods of a multidimensional comparative analysis

Research background: The multidimensional assessment of the attractiveness of cryptocurrency exchanges seems to be an important issue, because the risk of the collapse of such an exchange or its use for illegal purposes is higher than in the case of traditional exchanges. Purpose: The aim of the work is to create ranking and identify groups of cryptocurrency exchanges with a similar level of attractiveness. Research methodology: 13 different composite indicators were considered. Finally, one of them was chosen as a representative according to the similarity of the obtained rankings. Clustering methods were used to identify groups of exchanges with a similar level of the constructed measure. Result: The best according to the adopted criteria of rankings similarity was the taxonomic measure constructed using the standardized sum method with equal weights. Combining hierarchical clustering with the k-means algorithm allowed to improve the quality of clustering measured with the silhouette index. Novelty: The originality of the paper lies in the use of different methods of a multidimensional comparative analysis on the cryptocurrency market.

A Taxonomic Analysis of the Structure of Prime Costs in Polish Clinical Hospitals

Research background: The analysis of the genesis and the way of defining clinical hospitals allows us to conclude that the evaluation of their activities should consider many criteria, not only the treatment process in itself. Activities characteristic for a clinical hospital include, apart from the medical, also prophylaxis and preventative measures, preceded by the identification of health risks, soliciting research and creating new directions of medical research, as well as implementing new medical technologies and treatment methods (Article 3, paragraph 2, points 1–2, Journal of Laws of 2020, items 295, 567, 1493, 2112, i.e.) combined with the training of medical personnel. Which all makes those units unique among hospitals. Purpose: The article aims to confirm the thesis that, despite significant organizational and functional differences, due to the specific nature of their activities, clinical hospitals do not differ significantly in the structure of generated costs. Research methodology: The article proposes using the taxonomic method as a tool for a comparative analysis of Polish clinical hospitals between the years 2012–2016. The study was conducted from a space-time perspective and concerned 20 hospitals. The use of the hierarchical agglomeration method to assess the cost structure of clinical hospitals is, according to the author, a tool that should be used, in addition to standard methods, by both external and internal decision-makers, in the process of assessing the coherence of the activities of units. Results: The conducted research confirmed that despite the differences between the analyzed units, they are characterized by the same structure of prime costs. Novelty: These studies should form the basis for further, a more detailed, cause-and-effect analysis of the cost structure to identify the main determinants shaping total operating costs.

Sustaining South African small and medium-sized enterprises through monetary access and Literacy in the COVID-19 ERA

Research background: Monetary access and literacy are significant factors of concern confronting the survival and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises. Purpose: This led to this paper seeking to understand the impact monetary access and monetary literacy have on the sustainability of SMEs in the COVID-19 era. Research methodology: The method was employed by this study is a quantitative research method, which is supported by a positivism research paradigm. Data was collected using a questionnaire completed by 310 sampled participants. Using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences to analyse data, descriptive, the Pearson correlation and regression analyses were used to estimate the model. Results: The Pearson correlation indicated a positive and significant correlation between monetary access and monetary literacy to the sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises (r = 0.564). The result indicated that some small and medium-sized enterprises do possess basic monetary skills while some do not. A significant number of small and medium-sized enterprises do not understand basic monetary terms, which justifies the lack of monetary literacy. Novelty: The study recommends that government agencies that assist with business registration should include a monetary training course as part of registration formalities. Further to that, the study recommended that government, banks and other business support institutions should simplify support programmes for the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises during and post COVID-19 pandemic.

Innovativeness of Senior Consumers’ Attitudes – An Attempt to Conduct Segmentation

Research background: Ageing societies is a global phenomenon. In the media and the press, there strongly exists a stereotype of elderly people being poorly adjusted to social change, lonely, poor and not open to market novelties. However, an in-depth description of the senior consumer market segment shows their high degree of variety and differentiation in their approach to purchasing product innovations. Purpose: The aim of the article is to present a model of segmentation of older people according to the criterion of their attitudes towards innovation on the FMCG market. Research methodology: The source of information for building the typology was personal interviews conducted in 2018 with people aged over 60 in Greater Poland (the Wielkopolska region). The selection of respondents (the sample consisted of 1,451 people) was carried out using the quota selection method. The K-means clustering algorithm was applied to classify the respondents into clusters. Results: The research procedure allowed for the identification of different segments of senior consumers: reluctant conservatives, knowledgeable traditionalists, aspiring withdrawn/passive, unaware practical and rational innovators. Novelty: The results of the analysis of the segmentation of senior consumers confirm that people actively interested in product innovations on the FMCG market constitute a relatively small part of the elderly population (18.0%) and that there is a clear relationship between the attitude towards innovation and the characteristics of consumers in terms of economic, demographic and social variables.