scholarly journals Argentinian Elections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Celeste Ratto ◽  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Keyword(s):  
Structural Models ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in less established democratic systems, such as those in Latin America, scientific election forecasting by opinion polls is irregular and by statistical models is almost non-existent. Here we attempt to ameliorate this situation by exploring the leading case of Argentina, where democratic elections have prevailed for the last thirty-eight years. We demonstrate the strengths—and the weaknesses—of the two approaches, finally giving the nod to structural models based political and economic fundamentals. Investigating the presidential and legislative elections there, 1983 to 2019, our political economy model performs rather better than the more popular vote intention method from polling.

scholarly journals Does Democratic Consolidation Lead to a Decline in Voter Turnout? Global Evidence Since 1939

2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 653-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
FILIP KOSTELKA
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Democratic Consolidation ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Global Evidence

This article challenges the conventional wisdom that democratic consolidation depresses voter turnout. Studying democratic legislative elections held worldwide between 1939 and 2015, it explains why voting rates in new democracies decrease when they do, how much they decrease, and how this phenomenon relates to the voter decline observed in established democracies. The article identifies three main sources of decline. The first and most important is the democratization context. When democratizations are opposition-driven or occur in electorally mobilized dictatorships, voter turnout is strongly boosted in the founding democratic elections. As time passes and the mobilizing democratization context loses salience, voting rates return to normal, which translates into turnout declines. The second source is the democratic consolidation context, which seems to depress voter turnout only in post-Communist democracies. Finally, new democracies mirror established democracies in that their voting rates have been declining since the 1970s, irrespective of the two previous mechanisms.

Public Opinion Polls on Japan

1950 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Arthur N. Feraru
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Well-being and inequality in comparative perspective: the case of Poland and Ukraine

2019 ◽  
pp. 32-55
Author(s):  
Natalia Kovalisko ◽  
Serhii Makeev
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Cheap Labour ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Socio-economic trajectories of Poland and Ukraine have been considerably diverging since the last decade of the 20th century. The former has been advancing and catching up with Western European countries in terms of the quality of life — whereas in Ukraine, the 1990s recession gave way to unsustainable economic growth, which interrupted in the second half of the 2000s and in the 2010s. The comparison of official statistics, along with the data of household surveys and public opinion polls, makes it possible to conclude that a progressive and sustainable transition from a command economy to free market, as exemplified by Poland, is accompanied by moderate deepening of economic inequality. However, an abnormal transition (deviating from the “Polish rule”) entails excessive concentration of wealth and gives rise to corruption as a mechanism of income redistribution among different categories of population. This also results in a more noticeable stratification of opportunies for meeting vital and existential needs. Owing to a large proportion of shadow economy and undeclared work, Ukrainians remain a source of cheap labour in both the domestic and international labour markets; in addition, a persistent subculture of tax evasion is being formed in this country.

Growing Inequality and Public Awareness of Inequality in the States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Perceptions Of Inequality ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Here the authors present the variation that exists in income inequality across the states, and variation in public awareness or concern about income inequality as measured by public opinion polls. Though politicians may decide to tackle income inequality even in the absence of public concern about inequality, the authors argue that government responses are more likely when and where there is a growing awareness of, and concern about, inequality, which is confirmed in the analyses in this book. To examine this question in subsequent chapters, a novel measure of public awareness of rising state inequality is developed. Using these estimates, this chapter shows that the growth in the public concern about inequality responds in part to objective increases in inequality, but also that state political conditions, particularly mass partisanship, shape perceptions of inequality.

scholarly journals Facemasking Behaviors, Preferences, and Attitudes Among Emerging Adults in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Exploratory Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 0887302X2110067
Author(s):  
Denise Nicole Green ◽  
Frances Holmes Kozen ◽  
Catherine Kueffer Blumenkamp
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Adults ◽  
The United States ◽  
Living Situation ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Political Beliefs ◽  
Education Status ◽  
Work Education ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Distinct Period

Facemasks have become requisite amid the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore facemasking behaviors, preferences, and attitudes among emerging adults, a “distinct period demographically” within the lifespan. Public opinion polls conducted in May 2020 found that emerging adults were the least compliant when compared to other demographic groups. To understand why, we developed a survey instrument that was administered to a demographically representative quota sample of 1,005 participants. Demographic comparisons revealed that behaviors and attitudes differed significantly by political beliefs, gender, living situation, and race. An exploratory factor analysis revealed six underlying variables: (a) facemask avoidance; (b) concerned adherence (c) vexed faultfinding; (d) statement making; (e) fashion enthusiasm; and (f) hygiene adherence. All factors varied significantly by political affiliation, and in some cases by gender, race, living situation, location, and work/education status. Significant correlations were present between all factors except fashion enthusiasm and vexed faultfinding.

Hated but still human: Metadehumanization leads to greater hostility than metaprejudice

2021 ◽  
pp. 136843022097903
Author(s):  
Alexander P. Landry ◽  
Elliott Ihm ◽  
Jonathan W. Schooler
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intergroup Conflict ◽  
Negative Bias ◽  
Intergroup Conflicts ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Metadehumanization, the perception that members of an outgroup dehumanize your group, has been found to exacerbate intergroup conflict by inspiring reciprocal dehumanization of the offending outgroup. Moreover, metadehumanization is distinct from metaprejudice (i.e., the perception that an outgroup hates your group). Given the mutual animosity reported in public opinion polls toward the other side, we believed US–Russia relations would be a worthwhile context in which to extend this model. Therefore, we measured Americans’ levels of metadehumanization and metaprejudice of Russians to determine the association between these perceptions and their hostility toward Russians (Study 1). In this novel intergroup conflict, metadehumanization remained a consequential predictor of outgroup hostility over and above metaprejudice, suggesting that it can exacerbate a broader range of intergroup conflicts than those heretofore examined. Given these findings, we then sought to experimentally differentiate between metadehumanization and metaprejudice. In Study 2, we manipulated both metadehumanization and metaprejudice to (a) determine whether one or both cause greater outgroup hostility and (b) elucidate the underlying mechanisms by which they may produce this effect. Whereas metadehumanization produced greater hostility, metaprejudice did not. Moreover, although both metaperceptions inspired greater prejudice, only metadehumanization led to greater dehumanization. We conclude that metadehumanization may be a particularly potent fomenter of hostility because it inspires reciprocal dehumanization over and above more general negative bias.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Eric Lagenbacher
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
The Political ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
German Politics ◽  
Left Party ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Although it has not been that long since the articles of the previous special issue devoted to the 2017 Bundestag election and its aftermath have been published, the political situation in Germany appears to have stabilized. After almost six months without a new government, German politics has sunk back into a kind of late-Merkel era normality. Public opinion polls continue to show that the CDU/CSU is slightly above its election outcome, the SPD is still down in the 17–18 percent range, the FDP has lost about 2 percent of its support, while the AfD, Greens and Left Party are up 1–2 percent.

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