On the last paper of Warren B. Hamilton

ABSTRACT When Warren Hamilton passed away in October 2018, he left behind the manuscript for a synthesis paper that was published in Earth-Science Reviews in 2019: “Toward a myth-free geodynamic history of Earth and its neighbors.” Integrating hundreds of detailed studies across four worlds and billions of years, the paper’s outlook is heterodox, presenting alternatives to conventional wisdom in every paragraph for almost 50 pages. During the last years of his life, Hamilton had worked steadily on this paper, which he viewed as the culmination of his long career. This chapter tells the story of how Hamilton wrote his last paper, summarizes a few of the many ideas it contains, and describes how, with help from his colleagues, the paper was posthumously completed and published.

EXPRESS: The Upside of Negative: Social Distance in Online Reviews of Identity-Relevant Brands

Conventional wisdom in marketing emphasizes the detrimental effects of negative online reviews for brands. An important question is whether some firms could more effectively manage negative reviews to improve brand preference and outcomes. To address this question, our research examines how customers respond to online reviews of identity-relevant brands in particular, which have been overlooked in the online reviews literature. Eight studies (field data and experiments featuring consequential and hypothetical behaviors) show that negative online reviews may not be so detrimental for identity-relevant brands, especially when those reviews originate from socially distant (but not socially close) reviewers. This occurs because a negative review of an identity-relevant brand can pose a threat to a customer’s identity, prompting the customer to strengthen their relationship with the identity-relevant brand. To document the underlying process, we show that this effect does not emerge when the review is positive or the brand is identity-irrelevant. Importantly, we identify circumstances when negative reviews can actually produce positive outcomes (higher preference) for identity-relevant brands over no reviews or even positive reviews. By demonstrating the upside of negative reviews for identity-relevant brands, our findings have important implications for marketing theory and practice.

General theory of legal design in law and economics framework of commercial contracting

We need law and economics to do the scientific measurement necessary for legal design to be seen as on the stage of science. Law and economics—which is the application of economic theory, especially microeconomic theory, to the analysis and the practice of law--is a valid tool and approach to reflect on what should be empirically investigated in the practice of legal design. The neoclassical (mainstream) theoretical foundation of economic analysis of law is, however, at times far from reality as it often predicts uncooperative and even selfish behaviour. In real life people do cooperate, have empathy, emotions and even behave in an altruistic way. For those reasons, behavioural law and economics and conventional wisdom are needed to complement the teachings from standard theory in the field of commercial contracting.

Can We Explain Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs?

This question asked in this article is whether the shared intellectual property of the acquisition community includes an adequate theory of cost growth in major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs). This question is given concrete form by cost growth data for 123 MDAPs. These data are grouped into categories, which range from very small—negative, in fact—cost growth to cost growth in excess of 100%. Potential explanations for this broad range of cost growth considered are: the conventional wisdom about cost growth; a recent RAND study that closely examined cases at both ends of the distribution, along with some possible extensions of that study; and a recent model of the root causes of cost growth. The author argues that each of these falls short; in particular, it seems that the defense acquisition community at large does not have a good explanation of cost growth in the broad range of 30% to 100%.

Review of Three Lectures on Complexity and Black Holes by Leonard Susskind

The future prospects for anyone falling into a black hole are bleak. For one thing, there is no chance (according to our present state of knowledge) of ever getting out again. Worse, one is facing certain destruction when one meets the "singularity" (or its inconceivably dense physical manifestation, whatever that may be) inside. However, there is an "event horizon," the point of no return, separating the overly curious infalling astronaut from the doom he or she faces at the singularity. Suppose Alice the Astronaut wants to see what's behind the horizon (never mind the consequences). How much time would Alice have to look around and see what's happening, before reaching the end of her worldline? Conventional wisdom, until relatively recently, was that she would have some amount of time, perhaps hours. Passing the event horizon of a supermassive black hole would not seem like any kind of a milestone to the infalling individual; it is only an outside observer who would notice something out of the ordinary.

Boosting Career and Employability Outcomes Through Multiple Learning Abroad Experiences

While participation in learning abroad has increased rapidly over the last decade, short-term programs played an important role in boosting participation and widening access to learning abroad. The current study takes advantage of a new pattern of participation in learning abroad to examine self-reported career outcomes and employability development benefits based on program duration and the number of programs undertaken. Using a large-scale dataset of graduates of Australian universities, the study challenges conventional wisdom that a longer experience is better and explores the impact of multiple short-term program participation as a new intervention in graduate career outcomes. Although this study is based on the Australian higher education context, the results may be informative to educators and policy-makers from countries with comparable learning abroad programs in considering how short-term programs can be used more purposefully to foster positive careers and employability outcomes.

Broad or Narrow Stakeholder Management? A Signaling Theory Perspective

To mitigate risk, should companies signal a broad range of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives or instead focus on only a few ESG issues? Drawing on signaling theory, we propose that a broad array of ESG initiatives generates not only signal consistency but also accelerating signal costs. Our empirical results support the resultant hypothesis of a curvilinear relationship between ESG scope and equity risk. In addition, this U-shaped curve seems to become steeper when firms face multiple media-reported ESG controversies. Overall, our study qualifies the conventional wisdom that firms can reduce equity risk by attending to a wide variety of stakeholders and highlights the moderating (signal-amplifying) impact of the firm’s media environment.

What’s in a “Username”? The Effect of Perceived Anonymity on Herding in Crowdfunding

This research investigates whether and how predecessors’ usernames—as evaluated from a perspective of perceived anonymity—affect successors’ herding momentum through the varying extent of perceived source credibility. Using a unique data set collected from a leading debt-based crowdfunding platform, we classify lenders’ usernames as either anonymous or real-seeming, with the latter referring to usernames that seem to reveal one’s legal name. We find that successors demonstrate weaker herding momentum toward predecessors who are presented with real-seeming usernames than anonymous ones. This finding, which we attribute to a lower extent of perceived credibility resulting from a nonconforming behavior, challenges the conventional wisdom that considers anonymity a negative factor for source credibility. Further, we demonstrate the importance of risk-related factors, in that the uncovered positive effect of perceived anonymity on herding is accentuated in the early stage of the fundraising period. Our findings provide actionable insights for platform owners to utilize the user heterogeneity with respect to perceived anonymity and hence perceived credibility in herding. These findings are also informative for borrowers who desire to exert effort to encourage participation from the crowd.