Assessing the risk reducing effect of measures against intelligent attacks: review and discussion of some common approaches

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy and in-time diagnosis is limited because of the absence of effective biomarkers. Germline BRCA1/2 genetic alterations are risk factors for hereditary OC; risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is pursued for disease prevention. However, not all healthy carriers develop the disease. Therefore, identifying predictive markers in the BRCA1/2 carrier population could help improve the identification of candidates for preventive RRSO. In this study, plasma samples from 20 OC patients (10 patients with BRCA1/2 wild type (wt) and 10 with the BRCA1/2 variant (var)) and 20 normal subjects (10 subjects with BRCA1/2wt and 10 with BRCA1/2var) were analyzed for potential biomarkers of hereditary OC. We applied a bottom-up proteomics approach, using nano-flow LC-MS to analyze depleted plasma proteome quantitatively, and potential plasma protein markers specific to the BRCA1/2 variant were identified from a comparative statistical analysis of the four groups. We obtained 1505 protein candidates from the 40 subjects, and SPARC and THBS1 were verified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Plasma SPARC and THBS1 concentrations in healthy BRCA1/2 carriers were found to be lower than in OC patients with BRCA1/2var. If plasma SPARC concentrations increase over 337.35 ng/ml or plasma THBS1 concentrations increase over 65.28 mg/ml in a healthy BRCA1/2 carrier, oophorectomy may be suggested.

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A competing risks model with binary time varying covariates for estimation of breast cancer risks in BRCA1 families

Statistical Methods in Medical Research ◽

10.1177/09622802211008945 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 096228022110089

Author(s):

Yun-Hee Choi ◽

Hae Jung ◽

Saundra Buys ◽

Mary Daly ◽

Esther M John ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Ovarian Cancer ◽

Competing Risks ◽

Brca1 Mutation ◽

Prophylactic Surgery ◽

Time Varying ◽

Cancer Risks ◽

Competing Risks Model ◽

Time Varying Covariates ◽

Risk Reducing

Mammographic screening and prophylactic surgery such as risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy can potentially reduce breast cancer risks among mutation carriers of BRCA families. The evaluation of these interventions is usually complicated by the fact that their effects on breast cancer may change over time and by the presence of competing risks. We introduce a correlated competing risks model to model breast and ovarian cancer risks within BRCA1 families that accounts for time-varying covariates. Different parametric forms for the effects of time-varying covariates are proposed for more flexibility and a correlated gamma frailty model is specified to account for the correlated competing events.We also introduce a new ascertainment correction approach that accounts for the selection of families through probands affected with either breast or ovarian cancer, or unaffected. Our simulation studies demonstrate the good performances of our proposed approach in terms of bias and precision of the estimators of model parameters and cause-specific penetrances over different levels of familial correlations. We applied our new approach to 498 BRCA1 mutation carrier families recruited through the Breast Cancer Family Registry. Our results demonstrate the importance of the functional form of the time-varying covariate effect when assessing the role of risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy on breast cancer. In particular, under the best fitting time-varying covariate model, the overall effect of risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy on breast cancer risk was statistically significant in women with BRCA1 mutation.

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