A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjie Deng ◽  
Jan Harff ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Sediment Budget ◽  
Least Square

AbstractThe method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

scholarly journals Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project

Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ablain ◽  
A. Cazenave ◽  
G. Larnicol ◽  
M. Balmaseda ◽  
P. Cipollini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Correction ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Change Initiative ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Sea level is one of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) listed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) in climate change monitoring. In the past two decades, sea level has been routinely measured from space using satellite altimetry techniques. In order to address a number of important scientific questions such as "Is sea level rise accelerating?", "Can we close the sea level budget?", "What are the causes of the regional and interannual variability?", "Can we already detect the anthropogenic forcing signature and separate it from the internal/natural climate variability?", and "What are the coastal impacts of sea level rise?", the accuracy of altimetry-based sea level records at global and regional scales needs to be significantly improved. For example, the global mean and regional sea level trend uncertainty should become better than 0.3 and 0.5 mm year−1, respectively (currently 0.6 and 1–2 mm year−1). Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2–3 mm) need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on "Sea Level" during its first phase (2010–2013), using multi-mission satellite altimetry data over the 1993–2010 time span. In a first step, using a new processing system with dedicated algorithms and adapted data processing strategies, an improved set of sea level products has been produced. The main improvements include: reduction of orbit errors and wet/dry atmospheric correction errors, reduction of instrumental drifts and bias, intercalibration biases, intercalibration between missions and combination of the different sea level data sets, and an improvement of the reference mean sea surface. We also present preliminary independent validations of the SL_cci products, based on tide gauges comparison and a sea level budget closure approach, as well as comparisons with ocean reanalyses and climate model outputs.

The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 973-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Chini ◽  
Peter Stansby ◽  
James Leake ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
Jonah Roberts-Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
East Anglia ◽  
The Impact

Concern and anticipation of future sea-level rise increase potential for social tipping interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Smith ◽  
Marc Wiedermann ◽  
Jonathan Donges ◽  
Jobst Heitzig ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Critical State ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Country Level

<p>Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations in order to meet the goals of the Paris Accord and to prevent abrupt, irreversible, transitions in the Earth System. Social tipping processes, where relatively small groups trigger sudden qualitative shifts in collective behaviour have been identified as a potential key mechanism instigating these necessary transformations.  However, the specific processes whereby experienced or anticipated future climate impacts effect large-scale societal changes remain largely unidentified and underrepresented in contemporary Earth System models. Here, we combine output from the MAGICC climate model, country-level social survey data and a low-dimensional network-based threshold model of social tipping to exemplify a transformative pathway in which climate change concern increases the potential for social tipping and extended anticipatory time horizons of future sea level rise shift the system closer towards a critical state whereby interventions, such as emergent social movements or policy change, can ultimately kick the system into a qualitatively different state. While dynamics of climate tipping elements are often reduced to a single control parameter, our findings suggest that such an approach may be inapplicable for social tipping processes, as single parameters alone may not reach critical thresholds required for tipping. Instead, we show that comparatively smaller changes in a set of multiple parameters can suffice to shift a system into its critical state where ephemeral (potentially deliberate) kicks can bring about social tipping. Tipping in the climate system is commonly associated with bifurcations, while social tipping processes are instead more likely induced by sudden events or shocks, where the required magnitudes of such kicks emerge from multiplicative, interacting factors. Effective analyses of such processes therefore requires novel modeling paradigms, specifically accounting for the increased complexity of socio-economic systems.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change and human influences on sediment fluxes and the sediment budget of an urban delta: the example of the lower Rhine–Meuse delta distributary network

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-280
Author(s):  
J.R. Cox ◽  
F.E. Dunn ◽  
J.H. Nienhuis ◽  
M. van der Perk ◽  
M.G. Kleinhans
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Suspended Sediment ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sediment Budget ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Channel Network ◽  
Port Development ◽  
The Future

Deltas require sufficient sediment to maintain their land area and elevation in the face of relative sea-level rise. Understanding sediment budgets can help in managing and assessing delta resilience under future conditions. Here, we make a sediment budget for the distributary channel network of the Rhine–Meuse delta (RMD), the Netherlands, home to the Port of Rotterdam. We predict the future budget and distribution of suspended sediment to indicate the possible future state of the delta in 2050 and 2085. The influence of climate and anthropogenic effects on the fluvial and coastal boundaries was calculated for climate change scenarios, and the effects of future dredging on the budget were related to port development and accommodation of larger ships in inland ports. Suspended sediment rating curves and a 1D flow model were used to estimate the distribution of suspended sediment and projected erosion and sedimentation trends for branches. We forecast a negative sediment budget (net annual loss of sediment) for the delta as a whole, varying from −8 to −16 Mt/year in 2050 and −11 to −25 Mt/year by 2085, depending on the climate scenario and accumulated error. This sediment is unfavourably distributed: most will accrete in the northern part of the system and must consequently be removed by dredging for navigation. Meanwhile, vulnerable intertidal ecosystems will receive insufficient sediment to keep up with sea-level rise, and some channels will erode, endangering bank protection. Despite increased coastal import of sediment by estuarine processes and increased river sediment supply, extensive dredging for port development will cause a sediment deficit in the future.

scholarly journals A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

ENERGYO ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjie Deng ◽  
Jan Harff ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Wave Climate

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of sea-level rise and sediment budget in coastal retreat at Hermenegildo Beach, Southern Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salette Amaral de Figueiredo ◽  
Lauro Julio Calliari ◽  
Arthur Antonio Machado
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Sediment Budget ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Sediment Budgets ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Indirect Measures ◽  
Coastal Retreat

Abstract Climate change effects such as accelerated sea-level rise, wave climate alteration and disturbances on sediment-budgets are anticipated to lead to a range of adverse impacts in coastal regions around the world. A rise in sea-level is expected to cause shoreline recession, and a sediment deficit can have a similar effect. Since large uncertainties exist in relation to sea-level rise rates and sediment budgets, it is relevant to determine how sensitive the coast is to each of these disturbances. In this context, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of each of these parameters in terms of modeled coastal recession through risk-based assessments using an aggregated coastal model, the DRanSTM (Dilating Random Shoreface Translation Model). In each separate computer simulation, a sediment budget and a sea-level scenario were set for an erosional coastal stretch: Hermenegildo Beach, Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil. Effects of changes in wave climate were not directly considered in this study. However, indirect measures of such changes should be reflected on coastal sediment budgets. Simulation results demonstrate that under present-day sea-level rise rates, sediment deficit exerts control over coastal recession. Conversely, under the higher forecasted sea-level rise for the year 2100, mean shoreline recession will be dictated by sea-level rise, considering historical sediment deficit will be sustained.

scholarly journals Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010) from the Climate Change Initiative Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 2029-2071 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ablain ◽  
A. Cazenave ◽  
G. Larnicol ◽  
M. Balmaseda ◽  
P. Cipollini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Correction ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Change Initiative ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Sea level is one of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) listed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) in climate change monitoring. In the last two decades, sea level has been routinely measured from space using satellite altimetry techniques. In order to address a number of important scientific questions such as: "Is sea level rise accelerating?", "Can we close the sea level budget?", "What are the causes of the regional and interannual variability?", "Can we already detect the anthropogenic forcing signature and separate it from the internal/natural climate variability?", and "What are the coastal impacts of sea level rise?", the accuracy of altimetry-based sea level records at global and regional scales needs to be significantly improved. For example, the global mean and regional sea level trend uncertainty should become better than 0.3 and 0.5 mm year−1, respectively (currently of 0.6 and 1–2 mm year−1). Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2–3 mm) need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various respective data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on "Sea Level" during its first phase (2010–2013), using multi-mission satellite altimetry data over the 1993–2010 time span. In a first step, using a new processing system with dedicated algorithms and adapted data processing strategies, an improved set of sea level products has been produced. The main improvements include: reduction of orbit errors and wet/dry atmospheric correction errors, reduction of instrumental drifts and bias, inter-calibration biases, intercalibration between missions and combination of the different sea level data sets, and an improvement of the reference mean sea surface. We also present preliminary independent validations of the SL_cci products, based on tide gauges comparison and sea level budget closure approach, as well as comparisons with ocean re-analyses and climate model outputs.

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