Identification of Mixed Causal-Noncausal Models in Finite Samples

Author(s):  
Alain Hecq ◽  
Lenard Lieb ◽  
Sean Telg
Keyword(s):  
Biometrika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juhyun Park ◽  
Jeongyoun Ahn ◽  
Yongho Jeon

Abstract Functional linear discriminant analysis offers a simple yet efficient method for classification, with the possibility of achieving a perfect classification. Several methods are proposed in the literature that mostly address the dimensionality of the problem. On the other hand, there is a growing interest in interpretability of the analysis, which favors a simple and sparse solution. In this work, we propose a new approach that incorporates a type of sparsity that identifies nonzero sub-domains in the functional setting, offering a solution that is easier to interpret without compromising performance. With the need to embed additional constraints in the solution, we reformulate the functional linear discriminant analysis as a regularization problem with an appropriate penalty. Inspired by the success of ℓ1-type regularization at inducing zero coefficients for scalar variables, we develop a new regularization method for functional linear discriminant analysis that incorporates an L1-type penalty, ∫ |f|, to induce zero regions. We demonstrate that our formulation has a well-defined solution that contains zero regions, achieving a functional sparsity in the sense of domain selection. In addition, the misclassification probability of the regularized solution is shown to converge to the Bayes error if the data are Gaussian. Our method does not presume that the underlying function has zero regions in the domain, but produces a sparse estimator that consistently estimates the true function whether or not the latter is sparse. Numerical comparisons with existing methods demonstrate this property in finite samples with both simulated and real data examples.


2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1415-1441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shingo Goto ◽  
Yan Xu

AbstractIn portfolio risk minimization, the inverse covariance matrix prescribes the hedge trades in which a stock is hedged by all the other stocks in the portfolio. In practice with finite samples, however, multicollinearity makes the hedge trades too unstable and unreliable. By shrinking trade sizes and reducing the number of stocks in each hedge trade, we propose a “sparse” estimator of the inverse covariance matrix. Comparing favorably with other methods (equal weighting, shrunk covariance matrix, industry factor model, nonnegativity constraints), a portfolio formed on the proposed estimator achieves significant out-of-sample risk reduction and improves certainty equivalent returns after transaction costs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tucker S. McElroy ◽  
Agustin Maravall

AbstractWhile it is typical in the econometric signal extraction literature to assume that the unobserved signal and noise components are uncorrelated, there is nevertheless an interest among econometricians in the hypothesis of hysteresis, i.e. that major movements in the economy are fundamentally linked. While specific models involving correlated signal and noise innovation sequences have been developed and applied using state space methods, there is no systematic treatment of optimal signal extraction with correlated components. This paper provides the mean square error optimal formulas for both finite samples and bi-infinite samples and furthermore relates these filters to the more well-known Wiener–Kolmogorov (WK) and Beveridge–Nelson (BN) signal extraction formulas in the case of ARIMA component models. Then we obtain the result that the optimal filter for correlated components can be viewed as a weighted linear combination of the WK and BN filters. The gain and phase functions of the resulting filters are plotted for some standard cases. Some discussion of estimation of hysteretic models is presented, along with empirical results on an economic time series. Comparisons are made between signal extractions from traditional WK filters and those arising from the hysteretic models.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Yan ◽  
Qi Li

This paper develops a nonparametric method to estimate a conditional quantile function for a panel data model with an additive individual fixed effects. The proposed method is easy to implement, it does not require numerical optimization and automatically ensures quantile monotonicity by construction. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimator performs well in finite samples.


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