scholarly journals Heteroscedastic Additive Models - Estimating the Fixed Effects and Covariance Matrix parameters

Author(s):  
Adilson SİLVA
Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Boucher ◽  
Roxane Turcotte

Using telematics data, we study the relationship between claim frequency and distance driven through different models by observing smooth functions. We used Generalized Additive Models (GAM) for a Poisson distribution, and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) that we generalize for panel count data. To correctly observe the relationship between distance driven and claim frequency, we show that a Poisson distribution with fixed effects should be used because it removes residual heterogeneity that was incorrectly captured by previous models based on GAM and GAMLSS theory. We show that an approximately linear relationship between distance driven and claim frequency can be derived. We argue that this approach can be used to compute the premium surcharge for additional kilometers the insured wants to drive, or as the basis to construct Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) insurance for self-service vehicles. All models are illustrated using data from a major Canadian insurance company.


10.3982/qe802 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 579-608
Author(s):  
Jungmo Yoon ◽  
Antonio F. Galvao

This study develops cluster robust inference methods for panel quantile regression (QR) models with individual fixed effects, allowing for temporal correlation within each individual. The conventional QR standard errors can seriously underestimate the uncertainty of estimators and, therefore, overestimate the significance of effects, when outcomes are serially correlated. Thus, we propose a clustered covariance matrix (CCM) estimator to solve this problem. The CCM estimator is an extension of the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimator for QR models with fixed effects. The autocovariance element in the CCM estimator can be substantially biased, due to the incidental parameter problem. Thus, we develop a bias‐correction method for the CCM estimator. We derive an optimal bandwidth formula that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared errors, and propose a data‐driven bandwidth selection rule. We also propose two cluster robust tests, and establish their asymptotic properties. We then illustrate the practical usefulness of the proposed methods using an empirical application.


2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 10-11
Author(s):  
Jian Cheng ◽  
Rohan Fernando ◽  
Jack C Dekkers

Abstract Efficient strategies have been developed for leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) of predicted phenotypes in a simple model with an overall mean and marker effects or animal genetic effects to evaluate the accuracy of genomic predictions. For such a model, the correlation between the predicted and the observed phenotype is identical to the correlation between the observed phenotype and the estimated breeding value (EBV). When the model is more complex, with multiple fixed and random effects, although the correlation between the observed and predicted phenotype can be obtained efficiently by LOOCV, it is not equal to the correlation between the observed phenotype and EBV, which is the statistic of interest. The objective here was to develop and evaluate an efficient LOOCV method for EBV or for predictions of other random effects under a general mixed linear model. The approach is based on treated all effects in the model, with large variances for fixed effects. Naïve LOOCV requires inverting the (n - 1) x (n - 1) dimensional phenotypic covariance matrix for each of the n (= no. observations) training data sets. Our method efficiently obtains these inverses from the inverse of the phenotypic covariance matrix for all n observations. Naïve LOOCV of EBV by pre-correction of fixed effects using the training data (Naïve LOOCV) and the new efficient LOOCV were compared. The new efficient LOOCV for EBV was 962 times faster than Naïve LOOCV. Prediction accuracies from the two strategies were the same (0.20). Funded by USDA-NIFA grant # 2017-67007-26144.


Methodology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunkyeng Baek ◽  
John J. M. Ferron

Previous research applying multilevel models to single-case data has made a critical assumption that the level-1 error covariance matrix is constant across all participants. However, the level-1 error covariance matrix may differ across participants and ignoring these differences can have an impact on estimation and inferences. Despite the importance of this issue, the effects of modeling between-case variation in the level-1 error structure had not yet been systematically studied. The purpose of this simulation study was to identify the consequences of modeling and not modeling between-case variation in the level-1 error covariance matrices in single-case studies, using Bayesian estimation. The results of this study found that variance estimation was more sensitive to the method used to model the level-1 error structure than fixed effect estimation, with fixed effects only being impacted in the most extreme heterogeneity conditions. Implications for applied single-case researchers and methodologists are discussed.


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