scholarly journals Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Business Cycle in the Visegrad Group

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-58
Author(s):  
Bartosz Pawęta
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Visegrad Group

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....

scholarly journals UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCE IN THE UK: TRENDS SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 253 ◽  
pp. R18-R28
Author(s):  
Marianne Sensier ◽  
Fiona Devine
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Economic Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of regions in a resilience scorecard. Our empirical results reveal that the business cycle in productivity has not returned to its pre-recession peak level for Yorkshire and the Humber and the employment level has not recovered in Scotland. The resilience scorecard ranks the South East as the most resilient region with Northern Ireland the least resilient.

scholarly journals Do barriers to innovation impact changes in innovation activities of firms during business cycle? The effect of the Polish green island

Equilibrium ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Jakimowicz ◽  
Daniel Rzeczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Innovation Barriers ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Green Island

Research background: There is no doubt that innovation is an important source of economic growth. In the assessment of the innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises, two opposing views can be found. The first indicates the exogenous shock resulting from the global financial crisis and the associated innovation crisis and the subsequent period of innovative pessimism. The second shows the Polish economy as the European Green Island due to strong and uninterrupted economic growth over the past 27 years, controlled inflation, and reduction of unemployment as well as increase of the citizens’ well-being. In these conditions, an interesting research gap appeared, which is worth filling, at the centre of which there are factors determining the innovative activity of enterprises, and in particular the role and importance of innovation barriers in various phases of the business cycle. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to determine the impact of innovation barriers and degrees of their importance on the innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises during the business cycle. The time frame of the analysis covers three phases of the cycle: the prosperity period of 2004–2006, the global financial crisis of 2008–2010 and the recovery from 2012–2014. Methods: Pearson’s χ2 independence test and correspondence analysis were used for data analysis. The research results are presented in a graphical form of biplots that describe the coexistence of three types of variables: (1) types of enterprises and ownership sectors, (2) effects or objectives of innovative activity, and (3) innovation barriers and reasons for the lack of innovation. The basis of calculations were three databases covering the mentioned periods. Findings & Value added: High resistance of innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises to economic fluctuations has been demonstrated. Innovation barriers and degrees of their importance had little impact on the operations of enterprises in the first of the analysed periods, when prosperity was booming. The impact of the global financial crisis on innovation activities proved to be counterintuitive, as enterprises have continuously achieved their goals and the importance of innovation barriers has diminished even more. In the third period, innovation barriers no longer had any significance for the innovation activities of enterprises. The phenomenon of a gradual decline in the importance of innovation barriers, regardless of the phases of the business cycle, was called the Polish Green Island Effect. The relationship found is a peculiarity which is probably unprecedented in recent world economic history.

scholarly journals Firm ownership and size versus innovation activities over the business cycle: near-zero inertia as a sign of the transition from the fifth to the sixth Kondratieff wave

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Jakimowicz ◽  
Daniel Rzeczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Research background: The innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises is examined in a broader time context than typical business cycle frames, which makes it possible to look at the investigated problems from the perspective of Kondratieff waves. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to describe the combined effect of mutual interactions between the ownership and size of Polish industrial processing enterprises on the goals of innovative activity and their degree of importance for the further development of the innovativeness of those firms. These relations are examined in various phases of the business cycle. Additionally, taking secular changes into account made it possible to lend credence to the claim that the global financial crisis is a typical phenomenon for the breakthrough period between two Kondratieff waves. Methods: A characteristic feature of the applied method is the focus on the combined effect of the enterprise type and ownership structure on firms’ innovation over three periods: prosperity 2004–2006, crisis 2008–2010 and recovery 2012–2014. As regards statistical techniques, the Pearson’s χ^2 independence test and correspondence analysis were applied. The results of the research are presented in a graphic form in three- and two-dimensional correspondence maps, which indicate the co-occurrence of (1) ownership sectors and enterprise types taken together, and (2) effects (goals) of the innovative activity of enterprises, together with the degree of their influence (importance) for further innovative activity. Mutual interactions between ownership sectors and enterprise types were visually analysed, indicating significant features of the triangles representing them. Findings & Value added: A significant combined effect of the ownership sectors and enterprise types on firms’ innovative activity was found. There was a certain type of dynamic equilibrium between those variables, which changes depending on the business cycle phase. In the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, a surprising phenomenon was found, consisting of the growth of innovative activity in most enterprises as compared to the period of prosperity in 2004–2006. The enterprises achieved the goals assumed, and the degree of their importance proved the significant influence on further innovative activity of those firms. Additionally, it was demonstrated that in the period of recovery (2012–2014) mutual interactions between ownership and size eliminated the relationship between those variables and the goals of innovative activity, and eco-innovations proved to be directly subordinated to traditional types of innovations, mainly product and process innovations. Changes occurring in the last of the examined periods are related to the near-zero inertia of the entire industrial processing section, which allows to interpret the global financial crisis as a typical phenomenon for a breakthrough marking the end of one Kondratieff wave and the beginning of the next. Moreover, 2015 is identified as the year of breakthrough, ending the Fifth and beginning the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, which was related to the transition from the information and telecommunications revolution to the biomedical-hydrogen revolution. The calculations presented in this paper are consistent with those forecasts.

scholarly journals Editorial for Special Issue “New Frontiers in Forecasting the Business Cycle and Financial Markets”

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 498-500
Author(s):  
Alessia Paccagnini
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic have heightened uncertainty in financial markets and the business cycle [...]

Using the Recurrent Event Binary States to Examine Economic Modeling Issues

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Harding ◽  
Adrian Pagan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Recurrent Event ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This chapter looks at using the binary states describing the recurrent events to help in either constructing economic models of time series or evaluating the fit of such models. The chapter provides a general discussion of the issues that come up when using the binary states in regressions. It then turns to the analysis of complete economic models. In these it is very common to see variance decompositions computed and used to draw conclusions about which shocks are responsible for the recurrent events. It is shown that this methodology is flawed when it comes to shedding light on what causes the business cycle. What can be done is investigated in the chapter, which illustrates how to determine which shocks are important to a matching of the business cycle features discussed in Chapter 5. The discussion moves on to some economic models that have been constructed in the wake of the global financial crisis and which aim to highlight the role of financial shocks.

scholarly journals Determinants of Profitability of Polish Banks: The Role of Foreign Banks

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability in Poland using an empirical framework that incorporates the traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) hypothesis as well as the Relative Market Power (RMP) hypothesis. This paper also examines the overall effect that financial structure and macroeconomic conditions had during the global financial crisis of 2008. Finally, this paper tests the effect of foreign capital on the profitability of Polish banks and attempts to determine if there is a link between the context of the parent banks and the profitability of their affiliates during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the debt crisis in the Eurozone. Empirical results based on panel data sets containing both micro-level and macro-level data are ambiguous, and we found evidence of the RMP hypothesis only. Furthermore, this paper found a positive correlation between the context of parent banks and the profitability of their affiliates. Finally, we determined that the profitability of commercial banks in Poland was contingent upon the business cycle.

The Resilience of Emerging Economies During the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
pp. 285-309
Author(s):  
Eleonora Cutrini ◽  
Giorgio Galeazzi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Foreign Credit

This chapter focuses on the decoupling hypothesis between emerging countries and the advanced world. On the basis of quarterly seasonally adjusted data over the period 1995q1–2014q1 we present some evidence in favor of a decreasing vulnerability of emerging market economies to global economic and financial development, particularly convincing for Asian countries. Results confirm a common finding in the related literature: The acute phase of the financial crisis triggered by the US mortgage crisis corresponds to a period of substantial increase in business cycle synchronization, arguably determined by the synchronized trade collapse and foreign credit retrenchment, although in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, all the different groups of emerging economies started to decouple again from the United States, and also relative to the Eurozone and to Japan. Therefore, extending the time span to recent data allows us to envisage the recoupling phase with respect to the United States' business cycle as a temporary halt over a long-run decoupling initiated a decade ago.

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