scholarly journals Editorial for Special Issue “New Frontiers in Forecasting the Business Cycle and Financial Markets”

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 498-500
Author(s):  
Alessia Paccagnini
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic have heightened uncertainty in financial markets and the business cycle [...]

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....

scholarly journals UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCE IN THE UK: TRENDS SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 253 ◽  
pp. R18-R28
Author(s):  
Marianne Sensier ◽  
Fiona Devine
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Economic Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of regions in a resilience scorecard. Our empirical results reveal that the business cycle in productivity has not returned to its pre-recession peak level for Yorkshire and the Humber and the employment level has not recovered in Scotland. The resilience scorecard ranks the South East as the most resilient region with Northern Ireland the least resilient.

scholarly journals Do barriers to innovation impact changes in innovation activities of firms during business cycle? The effect of the Polish green island

Equilibrium ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Jakimowicz ◽  
Daniel Rzeczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Innovation Barriers ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Green Island

Research background: There is no doubt that innovation is an important source of economic growth. In the assessment of the innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises, two opposing views can be found. The first indicates the exogenous shock resulting from the global financial crisis and the associated innovation crisis and the subsequent period of innovative pessimism. The second shows the Polish economy as the European Green Island due to strong and uninterrupted economic growth over the past 27 years, controlled inflation, and reduction of unemployment as well as increase of the citizens’ well-being. In these conditions, an interesting research gap appeared, which is worth filling, at the centre of which there are factors determining the innovative activity of enterprises, and in particular the role and importance of innovation barriers in various phases of the business cycle. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to determine the impact of innovation barriers and degrees of their importance on the innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises during the business cycle. The time frame of the analysis covers three phases of the cycle: the prosperity period of 2004–2006, the global financial crisis of 2008–2010 and the recovery from 2012–2014. Methods: Pearson’s χ2 independence test and correspondence analysis were used for data analysis. The research results are presented in a graphical form of biplots that describe the coexistence of three types of variables: (1) types of enterprises and ownership sectors, (2) effects or objectives of innovative activity, and (3) innovation barriers and reasons for the lack of innovation. The basis of calculations were three databases covering the mentioned periods. Findings & Value added: High resistance of innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises to economic fluctuations has been demonstrated. Innovation barriers and degrees of their importance had little impact on the operations of enterprises in the first of the analysed periods, when prosperity was booming. The impact of the global financial crisis on innovation activities proved to be counterintuitive, as enterprises have continuously achieved their goals and the importance of innovation barriers has diminished even more. In the third period, innovation barriers no longer had any significance for the innovation activities of enterprises. The phenomenon of a gradual decline in the importance of innovation barriers, regardless of the phases of the business cycle, was called the Polish Green Island Effect. The relationship found is a peculiarity which is probably unprecedented in recent world economic history.

scholarly journals Firm ownership and size versus innovation activities over the business cycle: near-zero inertia as a sign of the transition from the fifth to the sixth Kondratieff wave

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Jakimowicz ◽  
Daniel Rzeczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Research background: The innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises is examined in a broader time context than typical business cycle frames, which makes it possible to look at the investigated problems from the perspective of Kondratieff waves. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to describe the combined effect of mutual interactions between the ownership and size of Polish industrial processing enterprises on the goals of innovative activity and their degree of importance for the further development of the innovativeness of those firms. These relations are examined in various phases of the business cycle. Additionally, taking secular changes into account made it possible to lend credence to the claim that the global financial crisis is a typical phenomenon for the breakthrough period between two Kondratieff waves. Methods: A characteristic feature of the applied method is the focus on the combined effect of the enterprise type and ownership structure on firms’ innovation over three periods: prosperity 2004–2006, crisis 2008–2010 and recovery 2012–2014. As regards statistical techniques, the Pearson’s χ^2 independence test and correspondence analysis were applied. The results of the research are presented in a graphic form in three- and two-dimensional correspondence maps, which indicate the co-occurrence of (1) ownership sectors and enterprise types taken together, and (2) effects (goals) of the innovative activity of enterprises, together with the degree of their influence (importance) for further innovative activity. Mutual interactions between ownership sectors and enterprise types were visually analysed, indicating significant features of the triangles representing them. Findings & Value added: A significant combined effect of the ownership sectors and enterprise types on firms’ innovative activity was found. There was a certain type of dynamic equilibrium between those variables, which changes depending on the business cycle phase. In the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, a surprising phenomenon was found, consisting of the growth of innovative activity in most enterprises as compared to the period of prosperity in 2004–2006. The enterprises achieved the goals assumed, and the degree of their importance proved the significant influence on further innovative activity of those firms. Additionally, it was demonstrated that in the period of recovery (2012–2014) mutual interactions between ownership and size eliminated the relationship between those variables and the goals of innovative activity, and eco-innovations proved to be directly subordinated to traditional types of innovations, mainly product and process innovations. Changes occurring in the last of the examined periods are related to the near-zero inertia of the entire industrial processing section, which allows to interpret the global financial crisis as a typical phenomenon for a breakthrough marking the end of one Kondratieff wave and the beginning of the next. Moreover, 2015 is identified as the year of breakthrough, ending the Fifth and beginning the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, which was related to the transition from the information and telecommunications revolution to the biomedical-hydrogen revolution. The calculations presented in this paper are consistent with those forecasts.

Foucault against the Foucauldians? On the problem of the neoliberal state

Thesis Eleven ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 072551362110533
Author(s):  
Henry Maher
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
Original Text ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The survival of neoliberal forms of governance after their apparent repudiation during the Global Financial Crisis is a problem that continues to generate significant scholarly controversy. One of the most influential accounts of the survival of neoliberalism in the crisis draws on Michel Foucault’s The Birth of Biopolitics to claim that states intervening to support financial markets during the crisis was simply the neoliberal system working as expected. Returning to Foucault’s original text, I argue this account constitutes a systematic misreading because it treats Foucault as having developed an instrumentalist theory of the neoliberal state, a possibility Foucault explicitly rejected. I suggest that the reasons that led Foucault to reject an instrumentalist theory of the state remain just as relevant today, and accordingly argue for a return to Foucault’s methodological decision to treat neoliberalism not as a theory of state but as a discourse which constructs a novel bio-political governmentality.

scholarly journals FRACTAL MARKETS HYPOTHESIS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: SCALING, INVESTMENT HORIZONS AND LIQUIDITY

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250065 ◽  
Author(s):  
LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Heterogenous Agents ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Processes

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

Transparency Regulation in Financial Markets – Moving into the Surveillance Age?

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-321
Author(s):  
Iris H-Y Chiu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Regulatory Control ◽  
Legal Reforms ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Oversight

In the wake of the global financial crisis, the trajectory of legal reforms is likely to turn towards more transparency regulation. This article argues that transparency regulation will take on a new role of surveillance as intelligence and data mining expand in the wholesale financial sector, supporting the creation of designated systemic risk oversight regulators.The role of market discipline, which has been acknowledged to be weak leading up to the financial crisis, is likely to be eclipsed by a more technocratic governance in the financial sector. In this article, however, concerns are raised about the expansion of technocratic surveillance and whether financial sector participants would internalise the discipline of regulatory control. Certain endemic features of the financial sector will pose challenges for financial regulation even in the surveillance age.

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