The objective of our article is to analyze the risks of a new coronavirus pandemic with impact on the dynamics of the modern world economy, as well as to assess the corresponding consequences and risks that will lead to the formation of a new model for organizing interactions in international trade, foreign direct investment and a revision of the determinants of global economic growth. The nature of the impact of the current pandemic on the existing system of international economic relations, in contrast to the previous global crises, is unprecedentedly tough, which has led to a number of contradictions in the development of global value chains, international trade flows, and the transformation of external financing conditions. The author believes that the most important challenge of the pandemic is not only the recovery of the economy and economic activity, maintaining the growth rate of labor productivity, but also in preventing the growth of inequality, in shaping the ability to manage global risks and imbalances. The trends towards the localization of international trade and the repatriation of global value chains act as a risk of a significant slowdown in international exchange, which contradicts the canons and strategies for the development of foreign economic relations of those countries that ensured their economic growth by expanding participation in international trade and attracting foreign direct investment. According to the author, a new wave of international economic cooperation between countries can bring a new impetus to the development of international trade, capital movement and the dynamics of economic mobility.
Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains: New Evidence from China’s Belt and Road Initiative
