Winter Tourism and Climate Change in the Alps: An Assessment of Resource Consumption, Snow Reliability, and Future Snowmaking Potential

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections using Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the ongoing climate change. The reliability elevation using snowmaking is projected to rise by 200 to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures exhibit adequate snow reliability in the reference period when using snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered in a critical situation in the near future. Beyond the mid-century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with either steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease in snow reliability (RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, our projections show that there would no longer be any snow-reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in the French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). For this time period and this scenario, only 24 resorts are projected to remain reliable with snowmaking, all being located in the Alps.

Download Full-text

Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

10.5194/tc-2018-253 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Marc Pons ◽

Matthieu Vernay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Alps ◽

Natural Snow ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

Download Full-text