Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections using Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the ongoing climate change. The reliability elevation using snowmaking is projected to rise by 200 to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures exhibit adequate snow reliability in the reference period when using snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered in a critical situation in the near future. Beyond the mid-century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with either steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease in snow reliability (RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, our projections show that there would no longer be any snow-reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in the French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). For this time period and this scenario, only 24 resorts are projected to remain reliable with snowmaking, all being located in the Alps.

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Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

10.5194/tc-2018-253 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Marc Pons ◽

Matthieu Vernay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Alps ◽

Natural Snow ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

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Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 1673-1697 ◽

Cited By ~ 47

Author(s):

H. Castebrunet ◽

N. Eckert ◽

G. Giraud ◽

Y. Durand ◽

S. Morin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Snow Cover ◽

21St Century ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Stability Estimates ◽

Reference Period ◽

French Alps ◽

Wet Snow ◽

Snow Conditions

Abstract. Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20–30%) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong compared to changes in snow and meteorological variables. The decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase in avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of conditions favourable to wet-snow avalanches earlier in the season. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA (Modèle Expert d'aide à la Prévision du Risque d'Avalanche) shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity is clearly projected to decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the statistical analysis based on changes in snowpack characteristics and their links to avalanches observations in the past. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter timescales. Finally, the small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.

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Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-581-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 581-640 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

H. Castebrunet ◽

N. Eckert ◽

G. Giraud ◽

Y. Durand ◽

S. Morin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Time Scales ◽

21St Century ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

French Alps ◽

Wet Snow ◽

Snow Conditions

Abstract. Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity–snow conditions–meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general −20–30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong compared to snow and meteorological parameters changes. This decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase of avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of earlier wet snow avalanches triggers, at least as long as a minimal snow cover will be present. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity will clearly decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the changes in snowpack characteristics. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter time scales. Finally, small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.

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Winter Tourism and Climate Change in the Alps: An Assessment of Resource Consumption, Snow Reliability, and Future Snowmaking Potential

Mountain Research and Development ◽

10.1659/mrd-journal-d-10-00112.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 229-236 ◽

Cited By ~ 68

Author(s):

Christian Rixen ◽

Michaela Teich ◽

Corina Lardelli ◽

David Gallati ◽

Mandy Pohl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Resource Consumption ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

The Alps

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Do changes in snow conditions have an impact on snowmaking investments in French Alps ski resorts?

International Journal of Biometeorology ◽

10.1007/s00484-020-01933-w ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lucas Berard-Chenu ◽

Jonathan Cognard ◽

Hugues François ◽

Samuel Morin ◽

Emmanuelle George

Keyword(s):

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Snow Conditions

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Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061599 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1599 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Benjamin Poschlod ◽

Florian Willkofer ◽

Ralf Ludwig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Hierarchical Cluster ◽

Reference Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Monthly Discharge ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

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Vineyard-specific climate projections help growers manage risk and plan adaptation in the Paso Robles AVA

California Agriculture ◽

10.3733/ca.2021a0019 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 75 (3) ◽

pp. 142-150

Author(s):

Nicholas Babin ◽

Jazlyn Guerrero ◽

Diego Rivera ◽

Ajay Singh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Wine Grape ◽

Support Tools ◽

Plan Adaptation ◽

The One ◽

Dry Farming ◽

Near Future

California's wine grape growers will face increasing challenges under a changing climate as most production occurs near the boundaries of current varieties' climatic thresholds. As part of this study, we developed a method for transforming downscaled climate information from the publicly available Cal-Adapt database into useful and useable climate projections for vineyard managers and advisors in the Paso Robles American Viticultural Area. We shared vineyard-specific projections during interviews of 20 managers and advisors. Overall, interviewees expressed trust in the projections and found them helpful in reducing their psychological distance from climate change. The projections prompted consideration of strategies for managing future climate risk and planning adaptation, with the majority of adaptations associated with long-term decisions such as row orientation, variety selection, dry farming, crop diversification and relocation. Agri-climatic decision support tools such as the one prototyped here may prove especially helpful for incorporating climate adaptation into the long-term business planning and vineyard redevelopment decisions facing managers and advisors in the near future. This approach could be extended to other California wine grape regions or to other perennial crops with expected vulnerabilities to climate change.

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