DETERMINANTS OF DIFFERENTIATION FOR SELECTED COUNTY LABOUR MARKETS IN PODLASKIE VOIVODSHIP – THE APPLICATION OF THE SCENARIO METHOD

The main aim of the paper is to present the possibilities of scenario method use for the identification of the factors determining a different situation in selected county labour markets in Podlaskie Voivodship, Poland. The novelty posited by the authors of the paper consisted in the application of the qualitative method based on the intuitive logic school of scenario construction for the county labour markets analysis. The following pairs of poviats were subjected to the case study: Hajnowski and Bielski, Grajewski and Wysokomazowiecki, Suwalski and Sejneński. The selection of the experts of the presented case study followed the rules of researcher triangulation. The expert team consisted of representatives of labour market institutions, local government units and enterprises, which allowed for a multifaceted view on the analysed issues. The scenario method was preceded by the STEEPVL analysis. The main problem issue undertaken during the case study analysis was the identification of factors affecting the development of selected poviats and the assessment of these factors in terms of validity and uncertainty. The STEEPVL analysis and the scenario method were implemented for poviats, which in pairs of poviats occupy lower positions in the ranking of poviats in the region. The research methods applied by the authors of the paper were literature review, a case study, STEEPVL analysis and the scenario method.