Standard deviation of ten-year euro area yield spreads to Bund

2012 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads

The Content of IMF Staff Reports for Euro Area Countries

2014 ◽  
pp. 272-292
Author(s):  
Lena Golubovskaja
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Executive Board ◽  
Sample Mean ◽  
Warning Tone ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Imf

This chapter analyzes the tone and information content of the two external policy reports of the Internal Monetary Fund (IMF), the IMF Article IV Staff Reports, and Executive Board Assessments for Euro area countries. In particular, the researchers create a tone measure denoted WARNING based on the existing DICTION 5.0 Hardship dictionary. This study finds that in the run-up to the current credit crises, average WARNING tone levels of Staff Reports for Slovenia, Luxembourg, Greece, and Malta are one standard deviation above the EMU sample mean; and for Spain and Belgium, they are one standard deviation below the mean value. Furthermore, on average for Staff Reports over the period 2005-2007, there are insignificant differences between the EMU sample mean and Staff Reports’ yearly averages. Researchers find the presence of a significantly increased level of WARNING tone in 2006 (compared to the previous year) for the IMF Article IV Staff Reports. There is also a systematic bias of WARNING scores for Executive Board Assessments versus WARNING scores for the Staff Reports.

scholarly journals Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Fabio Spagnolo ◽  
Nicola Spagnolo
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Macro News

scholarly journals Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Fabio Spagnolo ◽  
Nicola Spagnolo
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Macro News

scholarly journals Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs

2020 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 27-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Theobald ◽  
Silke Tober
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Borrowing Costs

Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty

2007 ◽  
Vol 201 ◽  
pp. 55-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk

The National Institute has been producing forecasts since 1958, and they are an essential part of our contribution to the policy debate in the UK and elsewhere. Model-based forecasts for the UK have been published every quarter1 since the 1970s, whilst model-based forecasts for the US and the major Europeans started only in the late 1980s. The country coverage of the European forecasts has increased over the years, and Euro Area forecasts began as soon as membership was clear. There is a long enough history of forecasting to be able to evaluate our performance, and this note extends the work reported in Pain, Riley and Weale (2001), Barrell, Kirby and Metz (2005) and Barrell and Metz (2006). The Institute forecasts for the UK are the main focus of the analysis in this note, but evaluations of the US and Euro Area forecasts produced by the Institute are also undertaken. We focus on evaluating the last forecast undertaken (at T–1) before the start of the year being forecast (at T), as they contain as much information as was possible without using any from the year being forecast. We also look at the evolution of forecasts over the two years preceding the publication of the first outturn for the year being forecast in order to gauge at which point those forecasts become efficient in that the root mean squared deviation (RMSD) of the errors is smaller than standard deviation of the series.

scholarly journals Volatility of yields of government bonds among GIIPS countries during the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas Heryan ◽  
Jan Ziegelbauer
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The aim of the paper is to estimate, how the volatility of yields of the Greek bonds affects yields’ volatilities of bonds in selected European countries during the period of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. We obtained data for 10-year bonds in a weekly frequency from January 2006 till the end of December 2014. To make a comparison of pre-crisis period, we firstly investigate a bond yields’ volatility before 15th September 2008, when U.S. Leman Brothers bankrupted and the global financial crisis had been reflected in full. However, the period of the global financial crisis could also negatively affect the development of government bonds. Therefore, the period after Leman Brothers’ bankruptcy has been excluded and our crisis period starts after 23rd April 2010, when Greece asked the IMF for financial help and the sovereign debt crisis had been reflected in full. Volatility models GARCH (1,1), IGARCH (1,1) and TARCH (1,1) were used as an estimation method. To examine the risk premium of all GIIPS economies (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we also compared the whole investigation with the developments of each spread against the yields of German government bonds. Our results clearly proved not only big differences between pre-crisis and crisis period, but also differences in output with the bond yield spreads. It was concluded that  there has been a higher impact of the Greek bond yields, as well as yield spreads volatility in 2010 and 2011, while it is on the lower level in pre-crisis period.

scholarly journals Integration of Government Bond Market in the Euro Area and Monetary Policy

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-97
Author(s):  
Velimir Lukić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
The Government

Abstract This paper combines analysis of evolution in euro area government bond market integration and interference of European Central Bank with functioning of respective market recently. Since the introduction of euro, government bond yields converged in the euro area, bonds of different countries have become close substitutes in the perception of investors, and overall integration of the market was rather high. At the end of 2008, dramatic shift occurred and ever since disintegrative forces were set in motion. The paper presents the following measures of integration of the government bond markets: yield spreads, dispersion in yield spreads and beta coefficient. All three measures suggest unprecedented market disintegration as of 2010. The paper highlighted relevance of sovereign bond market for the smooth functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a monetary union context. Three ECB’s programmes aimed at sovereign debt crisis resolution were analysed in details. They proved successful in lowering peripheral countries’ yields and spreads, and calming the markets. If one takes central bank function of the lender of last resort for banks, then these programmes may be viewed as the “buyer of last resort” device for government bonds. Although warranted by exceptional circumstances and need for swift response, a due caution should be paid to these programmes since they pose certain challenges for conduct of monetary policy and might even have unintended consequences.

Does news on the euro area impact the sovereign yield spreads?

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houssam Bouzgarrou ◽  
Tarek Chebbi
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Spreads
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