EXPOSING EXTINCTION RISK ANALYSIS TO PATHOGENS: IS DISEASE JUST ANOTHER FORM OF DENSITY DEPENDENCE?

Environmental stochasticity is an important concept in population dynamics, providing a quantitative model of the extrinsic fluctuations driving population abundances. It is typically formulated as a stochastic perturbation to the maximum reproductive rate, leading to a population variance that scales quadratically with abundance. However, environmental fluctuations may also drive changes in the strength of density dependence. Very few studies have examined the consequences of this alternative model formulation while even fewer have tested which model better describes fluctuations in animal populations. Here we use data from the Global Population Dynamics Database to determine the statistical support for this alternative environmental variance model in 165 animal populations and test whether these models can capture known population–environment interactions in two well-studied ungulates. Our results suggest that variation in the density dependence is common and leads to a higher-order scaling of the population variance. This scaling will often stabilize populations although dynamics may also be destabilized under certain conditions. We conclude that higher-order environmental variation is a potentially ubiquitous and consequential property of animal populations. Our results suggest that extinction risk estimates may often be overestimated when not properly taking into account how environmental fluctuations affect population parameters.

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Linking ecological traits to extinction risk: Analysis of a Neotropical anuran database

Biological Conservation ◽

10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109390 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 264 ◽

pp. 109390

Author(s):

Rodrigo Barbosa Fontana ◽

Raíssa Furtado ◽

Noeli Zanella ◽

Vanderlei Júlio Debastiani ◽

Sandra Maria Hartz

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Ecological Traits

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Extinction risk analysis of exploited green turtle stocks in the Indo-Pacific

Animal Conservation ◽

10.1111/j.1469-1795.2010.00404.x ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 140-150 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

K. E. M. Dethmers ◽

P. W. J. Baxter

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Green Turtle ◽

Extinction Risk

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Extinction risk analysis of Anthocephalus macrophyllus in Gunungsewu Karst Area, Southern Java, Indonesia

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity ◽

10.13057/biodiv/d200715 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (7) ◽

Author(s):

LIES RAHAYU WIJAYANTI FAIDA ◽

HERO MARHAENTO

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Native Species ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Karst Area ◽

International Institute ◽

Potential Threat ◽

Coping Capacity ◽

Local Plant ◽

And Coping

Abstract. Faida LRW, Marhaento H. 2019. Extinction risk analysis of Anthocephalus macrophyllus in Gunungsewu Karst Area, Southern Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 20: 1897-1903. This paper aims to analyze the extinction risk of a local plant species namely Tebelo Pusoh or Jabon Merah (Anthocephalus macrophyllus) in Gunungsewu Karst Area (GKA), Southern Java, Indonesia. A. macrophyllus is a native species of GKA which its existence is currently being threatened by anthropogenic activities such as agricultural extension and housing development. To quantify the extinction risk of A. macrophyllus in GKA, an adapted equation from International Institute of Rural Reconstruction (IIRR) was used. Three extinction risk components namely hazard, vulnerability and coping capacity were assessed based on the local’s perception. Hazard was defined as a source of potential threat to A. macrophyllus, vulnerability was a state of A. macrophyllus being exposed to damage, and coping capacity was efforts to reduce the potential damage of A. macrophyllus. Interviews with one hundred and ten respondents were conducted to assess the risk components. The Likert scale was used to analyze the interview results. The results showed that within the scale of 1 to 4, the hazard score for A. macrophyllus was 2.67, the vulnerability score was 1.67, and the coping capacity score was 1.33. Finally, it was estimated that the extinction risk of A. macrophyllus in GKA was 3.35 indicating a moderate level of extinction risk.

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