Range Restriction affects Factor Analysis: Normality, Estimation, Fit, Loadings, and Reliability

A sample suffers range restriction (RR) when its variance is reduced comparing to its population variance and, in turn, it fails representing such population. If the RR occurs over the latent factor, not directly over the observed variable, the researcher deals with an indirect RR, common when using convenience samples. This work explores how this problem affects different outputs of the factor analysis: multivariate normality (MVN), estimation process, goodness-of-fit, recovery of factor loadings, and reliability. In doing so, a Monte Carlo study was conducted. Data were generated following the linear selective sampling model, simulating tests varying their sample size (N = 200 and 500 cases), test size (J = 6, 12, 18, 24 items), loading size (L = .50, .70, and .90) and restriction size (from R = 1, .90, .80, and so on till .10 selection ratio). Our results systematically suggest that an interaction between decreasing the loading size and increasing the restriction size affects the MVN assessment, obstructs the estimation process, and leads to an underestimation of the factor loadings and reliability. However, most of the MVN tests and most of the fit indices employed were nonsensitive to the RR problem. We provide some recommendations to applied researchers.

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

The Estimation of Finite Population Variance Under Stratified Sampling Technique

The efficiency of the study variable can be improved by incorporating the information from the known auxiliary variables. Usually two techniques ratio and regression estimation are used with the help of auxiliary information in different approaches to acquire the high precision of the estimators. Considering the very heterogeneous population to get the size of the sample it may be originating impossible to get a sufficiently accurate and precise estimate by taking the simple random sampling technique from the complete population. Occasionally taking sample issue may differ significantly in different part of the entire population. For example, under study population consists of people living in apartments, own homes, hospitals and prisons or people living in plain regions and hill regions so in such situations the stratified sampling is one of the most commonly used approach to get a representative sample in survey sampling from different cross units of the population. The present study is set out on the recommendation of generalized variance estimators for finite population variance incorporating stratified sampling scheme with the information of single and two transformed auxiliary variables. The expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE) are obtained for the advised exponential type estimators. The conditions are obtained for which the anticipated estimators are better than the usual estimator. An empirical and simulation study is conducted to prove the superiority of the recommended estimator.

Modelling type 1 quasar colours in the era of Rubin and Euclid

ABSTRACT We construct a parametric SED model which is able to reproduce the average observed SDSS–UKIDSS–WISE quasar colours to within one-tenth of a magnitude across a wide range of redshift (0 < z < 5) and luminosity (−22 > Mi > −29). This model is shown to provide accurate predictions for the colours of known quasars which are less luminous than those used to calibrate the model parameters, and also those at higher redshifts z > 5. Using a single parameter, the model encapsulates an up-to-date understanding of the intra-population variance in the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical emission lines of luminous quasars. At fixed redshift, there are systematic changes in the average quasar colours with apparent i-band magnitude, which we find to be well explained by the contribution from the host galaxy and our parametrization of the emission-line properties. By including redshift as an additional free parameter, the model could be used to provide photometric redshifts for individual objects. For the population as a whole we find that the average emission line and host-galaxy contributions can be well described by simple functions of luminosity which account for the observed changes in the average quasar colours across 18.1 < iAB < 21.5. We use these trends to provide predictions for quasar colours at the luminosities and redshifts which will be probed by the Rubin Observatory LSST and ESA-Euclid wide survey. The model code is applicable to a wide range of upcoming photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and is made publicly available.