scholarly journals Exchange Rate Appreciation, International Competitiveness And Purchasing Power Parity: The Shiomi Company Of Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-144
Author(s):  
John F. Boschen

In 2011 the ongoing appreciation in the yen against the US$ led Japanese firm Shiomi to consider relocating its production facilities outside of Japan. As a prelude to making this decision, Shiomi commissioned an evaluation of the historical impact of the yen’s appreciation on Japanese competitiveness. This evaluation is the basis for two important lessons in international financial management.  First, it is the real exchange rate, rather than the nominal exchange rate, that determines the relative cost competitiveness of countries. Second, in accordance with the rules of purchasing power parity, the historical evaluation showed that higher inflation in the U.S. relative to Japan caused the ratio of Japanese to U.S. prices to fall at roughly the same rate as the yen’s appreciation against the US$. Thus the long-term appreciation in the yen had little impact on Japanese competitiveness. Students are asked to assess the relocation decision in light of the post-case data on exchange rates and consumer prices supplied in the case. The case is appropriate for use in an international financial management or international economics course.

Author(s):  
Menzie D. Chinn

The idea that prices and exchange rates adjust so as to equalize the common-currency price of identical bundles of goods—purchasing power parity (PPP)—is a topic of central importance in international finance. If PPP holds continuously, then nominal exchange rate changes do not influence trade flows. If PPP does not hold in the short run, but does in the long run, then monetary factors can affect the real exchange rate only temporarily. Substantial evidence has accumulated—with the advent of new statistical tests, alternative data sets, and longer spans of data—that purchasing power parity does not typically hold in the short run. One reason why PPP doesn’t hold in the short run might be due to sticky prices, in combination with other factors, such as trade barriers. The evidence is mixed for the longer run. Variations in the real exchange rate in the longer run can also be driven by shocks to demand, arising from changes in government spending, the terms of trade, as well as wealth and debt stocks. At time horizon of decades, trend movements in the real exchange rate—that is, systematically trending deviations in PPP—could be due to the presence of nontraded goods, combined with real factors such as differentials in productivity growth. The well-known positive association between the price level and income levels—also known as the “Penn Effect”—is consistent with this channel. Whether PPP holds then depends on the time period, the time horizon, and the currencies examined.


2011 ◽  
Vol 268-270 ◽  
pp. 1823-1827
Author(s):  
Shuo Zhang ◽  
Xiao Feng Hui

The exchange rate model for the study of the exchange rate theory has very important significance. After analyzing the successful nonlinear model of real exchange rate based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, the nonlinear problem of nominal exchange rate is studied in this paper. Through a research on a period of nominal exchange rate with nonlinear characteristics, a nonlinear statistical model of nominal exchange rate based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is proposed, and the parameters of the model are estimated. Hypothesis testing shows that the model can accurately describe the statistical characteristics of the nominal exchange rate time series. The parameters showed that the nominal exchange rate model proposed in this paper, to some extent, supports that deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are nonlinear mean reversions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 751
Author(s):  
Luis San Vicente Portes ◽  
Vidya Atal

The Economist magazine has been publishing the Big Mac Index using it as a rule of thumb to determine the over- or under-valuation of international currencies based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity since 1986. According to the theory, using the Big Mac as a tradable single-good basket, the Dollar-value of the hamburger should be equalized around the world due to arbitrage. The popularity and following of the Big Mac Index led the authors to the following two questions: 1) How effective is the Big Mac price as an indicator of overall inflation? and 2) how accurate are exchange rate movement predictions based on Big Mac prices? They find that Big Mac prices tend to lag overall inflation rates, which is highly important in studies that use Big Mac prices as measures of affordability or real incomes over time. As a guide to exchange rate movements, there is support for the theory of Purchasing Power Parity, but only as a qualitative indicator of movement in the nominal exchange rate in rich and economically stable countries, proving less effective in forecasting exchange rate movements in emerging markets. The statistical analysis is carried out using data from 1986 to 2012 from The Economist and from the World Bank for 54 countries. The importance of these findings lies on the widespread use of the index and thus perpetuation of perceptions on the relative value of currencies in the areas of corporate finance, international trade and finance, and international business.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Merza

Many studies have tested the null hypothesis of the unit root of the real exchange rate to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. Previous studies have reached different conclusions regarding that issue. This study tests the hypothesis of PPP in Kuwait using two tests of unit roots, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2015, both tests reject the PPP hypothesis for the Kuwaiti economy. Using the components of the real exchange rate, we find that the levels of prices in both Kuwait and the US are not moving together to provide stationarity for the real exchange rate. This result could be attributed to the large increases in the prices of the housing and food and beverages sectors in Kuwait during that time.


Ánfora ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (45) ◽  
pp. 123-143
Author(s):  
Oscar Hernán Cerquera Losada ◽  
Camilo Fabiam Gómez Segura ◽  
Cristian José Arias Barrera

Objetive: to determine the fulfillment of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory in Colombia, the exchange rate with the US dollar using as a standard. Methodology: to check if the PPP in Colombia is achieved, monthly and quarterly data was used, which ran from January 1959 to December 2015. To do this, the longterm behavior from the real exchange rate was modeled, contrasting the unit  roots presence and structural changes. In addition, a bivariate cointegration model  was used. Results: it was found that, in the case of Colombia, the PPP theory was not  fulfilled, since the peso and the dollar are not cointegrated. Therefore, according to the unitary root methodology, the PPP hypothesis in Colombia for the period 1959- 2015 is not validated. Everything seems to indicate that the Colombian peso has little relation with the US dollar. Conclusions: the use of general price indices, which include tradable goods between countries, multiple barriers to international trade, imperfect competition and social, economic, political and cultural differences between both countries are important aspects when explaining the unfulfillment of the PPP


2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arshad Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Abdul Qayyum

The main focus of this paper is to measure the speed of adjustment of the exchange rate by means of the persistent profile approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1996) to examine the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates for the Pak-rupee vis-à-vis the US-dollar exchange rate over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. Using cointegration and vector error-correction modeling approaches, we find considerable support for the validity of weak-form PPP in Pakistan. Furthermore, the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of PPP are not verified. In the short-run, the exchange rate and foreign prices play a significant role in the convergence process to achieve long-run equilibrium. However, the speed of adjustment is very slow and the persistence profiles suggest that almost 4-5 years are required to eliminate deviations and bring the nominal exchange rate in line with the long-run equilibrium path.


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