scholarly journals Exports as a Determinant of Inflation in Kenya: Disaggregated Econommetric Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Evans Ovamba Kiganda ◽  
Scholastica Adhiambo ◽  
Nelson Obange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study was to examine exports as a determinant of inflation in Kenya: A disaggregated econometric analysis with specific objectives of establishing the relationship between domestic exports and inflation in Kenya and determining the relationship between re - exports and inflation in Kenya. This was occasioned by inconclusive and incomprehensive analysis on the relationship between exports and inflation given mixed results and failure by scholars to disaggregate total exports into domestic exports and re-exports. Correlation research design was employed using monthly time series obtained from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data spanning 132 months from January 2005 to December 2015.Vector Autoregressive (VAR) techniques of cointegration, Granger causality and impulse response analysis were employed. Results indicated a significant positive and negative long run relationship between domestic exports and re- exports with inflation in Kenya respectively that were supported by the impulse response analysis. A unidirectional causality running from domestic exports to inflation and re-exports to inflation was also established. The study concluded that domestic exports and re-exports determine inflation in Kenya with domestic exports having greater influence and therefore recommended that the government of Kenya needs to advocate for a trade policy that aims at reducing exports of domestically produced products and increase re-exports. This will ensure that only surplus is exported to reduce shortage of domestically produced commodities hence a reduction in price for the products.

scholarly journals Determinants of tax evasion in Greece: Econometric analysis of co-integration and causality, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-57
Author(s):  
Anastasiou Athanasios ◽  
Kalligosfyris Charalampos ◽  
Kalamara Eleni
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Adf Test

The purpose of this paper is tο examine the causality relationships and the degree of interdependence, between the level of tax evasion in Greece and a set of deterministic factors, using annual data for the period 1995 - 2018. The research methodology employed includes testing for stationarity with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, cointegration test according to Engle-Granger approach, estimation Error Correction Models (ECM) to investigate the short-run and long-run relationships, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The results indicate a significant interdependence, which is an important tool for pursuing a targeted and effective policy to fight tax evasion. More specifically, the survey showed that the level of tax rates, the level of unemployment, the Rule of Laws index, the level of GDP, the level of non-performing loans, the government efficiency, the corruption perception index and the level of final consumption expenditure, affect the size of tax evasion in Greece, significantly. In addition, the results of variance decomposition and impulse response analysis, support the above findings, providing a quantitative representation of the causality relationships between the factors under investigation and tax evasion.

scholarly journals A Study On The Productivity Of Koreas Industrial Sector With IT Technology Capital And R&D Stocks Variation

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuhwan Park ◽  
Tae-Woong Park ◽  
Byoung-Moo Heo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Time Periods

This paper examines the effects of IT technology capital and R&D stocks variation on the growth of Koreas industries with time series approaches. In detail, we analyze the Granger causality and impulse response analysis among the Koreas industrial growth, IT technology capital, and R&D stocks. When it comes to this research conclusion, we know that IT technology capital and R&D stocks shocks affect the growth of Koreas industrial sector. However, the revere effect is ambiguous in each industrial sector. Also, the impulse response function analysis shows that the effect of IT technology capital and R&D stocks fluctuation in each industrial sector is presented with different time periods.

Inter-linkages between India and World Stock Markets and European Debt Crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3and4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
European Debt Crisis

This paper examines the inter-linkages and long run co-integration of Indian economy with other economies of the world (US, Europe, Other Emerging markets, and World economy) using standard indices of MSCI over the period April, 2001 to March, 2013. We also investigate Indian economys response to recent global turbulence European Debt crisis (EDC). We use Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test and Impulse response analysis of Vector auto-regression framework to test various hypotheses. There is no contagious effect of EDC on Indian economy. During post-EDC, the Indian economy is granger caused by US and world economies. Further during the pre as well as post- EDC period, no cointegrating relationship has been found. This low level of co integration, despite presence of short run causal relationship, shows that global shocks might destabilize Indian economy in long run. Especially, Impulse response analysis revealed that Indian economy seems to be affected from the shocks created in the European markets and such shock persists in Indian economy for more than 10 months. These results have important policy implications. The policy makers need to understand that although there is no contagious effect of EDC on Indian economy but interdependency can destabilize Indian economy for much longer period.

Determinants Of The Trade Balance In The Turkish Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Ali Ari ◽  
Raif Cergibozan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p class="AbstractText">The Turkish economy has a long-run problem of trade deficits. Several efforts and different policies over the last 50 years could not find any permanent remedy to this problem which is an important source of external vulnerability for the Turkish economy. Thus, this study aims to shed light on the trade balance dynamics in Turkey via Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, and impulse-response analysis, for the period 1987–2015. Estimation results indicate that in the long-run an increase in real effective exchange rate improves trade balance, while an increase in Turkish (foreign) income improves (deteriorates) trade balance. In the short-run, real effective exchange rate has no impact on trade balance, while an increase in domestic and foreign income negatively affects the Turkish trade balance. The impulse-response analysis also shows that the J-curve hypothesis does not hold for the Turkish case. </p>

Study of Short-Run Grain Movements on the Inland Waterway System

2005 ◽  
Vol 1909 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Thoma ◽  
Wesley W. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Planning Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions

Time series techniques—particularly impulse–response functions and variance decompositions—are used to characterize the short-run relationships between 17 variables in a vector autoregressive model designed to trace the short-run interconnections among variables affecting lockages on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. The model contains five categories of variables: lockages, barge rates, grain bids, rail rates, and rail deliveries. Variance decompositions are constructed that identify barge rates as the most important variable affecting lockages at both short and long horizons. Barge rates are, in turn, explained largely by lockages and rail rates, indicating two-way feedback or bidirectional causality between lockages and barge rates. Impulse–response functions are also examined. The variance decompositions indicate that barge rates are important in explaining lockages, and the impulse–response functions show how lockages and other variables respond to such shocks. In general, there is a substitution away from barge transportation and toward rail transportation when barge rates increase. The results are useful for illuminating the causal relationships among variables in the model and for understanding behavioral relationships present in the data and can be used to guide short- and long-run planning models. For example, many planning models assume that barge traffic does not respond significantly to changes in barge rates; however, results obtained here imply that barge traffic and rail deliveries do respond to such changes. This potentially important implication illustrates the usefulness of the time series techniques used.

scholarly journals Remittances and corruption in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Folorunsho M. Ajide ◽  
John A. Olayiwola
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Estimation Variance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Ols ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Control Of Corruption

PurposeIn this paper, we investigate the impact of remittances on control of corruption in Nigeria for a period of 1986–2016.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses ARDL modeling framework, dynamic OLS estimation, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis to examine the relationship between the two variables.FindingsThe study finds that remittances significantly improve the control of corruption in Nigeria. We further examine the robustness test of the results using dynamic OLS estimation, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. Our results remain significant and consistent to the earlier one reported in ARDL framework which supports the extant literature.Practical implicationsOur study suggests that international remittances can be used, through the cross-border transfer of norms and practices, to significantly impact the socioeconomic progresses of a country by reducing corruption.Originality/valueThe existing studies on the relationship between corruption and remittances document conflicting results. In addition, study on corruption - remittances nexus that specifically focuses on any African country is largely absent despite the fact that most of the countries in the region are recognized as highly corrupt. This paper provides insights on how remittances can be used as part of tool kits to control corruption in African nation.

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