Stimulating Non-Energy Exports in Trinidad and Tobago: Evidence from a Small Petroleum-Exporting Economy Experiencing the Dutch Disease

The motivation for this study hinges around the fact that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is suffering from the Dutch disease which inadvertently hinders the growth of non-energy exports. This paper examines measures that can be adopted for a small petroleum-exporting economy to dampen the effect of Dutch disease by promoting non-energy trade. This paper is novel and contributes to the literature in using panel data for the T&T case, as it investigates the effect of a devaluation of the TT dollar in order to stimulate non-energy exports (a combination of agriculture and manufacturing trade). Note that previous studies would have examined the Marshall–Lerner condition on the aggregate trade balance which is heavily influenced by energy revenues. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is used for ten of T&T’s main trading partners for the period 1991 to 2019 to establish findings. The results show that the Marshall–Lerner condition does not hold for aggregate trade in the long run, as expected. However, when non-energy trade is isolated, it is found that a devaluation of the TT dollar does have a positive impact on non-energy trade and the Marshall–Lerner condition holds. Other measures are also recommended to stimulate non-energy exports in the long run.

Comparison of Weighted Lag Adaptive LASSO with Autometrics for Covariate Selection and Forecasting Using Time-Series Data

In order to reduce the dimensionality of parameter space and enhance out-of-sample forecasting performance, this research compares regularization techniques with Autometrics in time-series modeling. We mainly focus on comparing weighted lag adaptive LASSO (WLAdaLASSO) with Autometrics, but as a benchmark, we estimate other popular regularization methods LASSO, AdaLASSO, SCAD, and MCP. For analytical comparison, we implement Monte Carlo simulation and assess the performance of these techniques in terms of out-of-sample Root Mean Square Error, Gauge, and Potency. The comparison is assessed with varying autocorrelation coefficients and sample sizes. The simulation experiment indicates that, compared to Autometrics and other regularization approaches, the WLAdaLASSO outperforms the others in covariate selection and forecasting, especially when there is a greater linear dependency between predictors. In contrast, the computational efficiency of Autometrics decreases with a strong linear dependency between predictors. However, under the large sample and weak linear dependency between predictors, the Autometrics potency ⟶ 1 and gauge ⟶ α. In contrast, LASSO, AdaLASSO, SCAD, and MCP select more covariates and possess higher RMSE than Autometrics and WLAdaLASSO. To compare the considered techniques, we made the Generalized Unidentified Model for covariate selection and out-of-sample forecasting for the trade balance of Pakistan. We train the model on 1985–2015 observations and 2016–2020 observations as test data for the out-of-sample forecast.

Confinement, Food security and consumption of subsidized products in Tunisia: Worsening trade deficit

The present paper attempts to know if the confinement in Tunisia has an impact on the consumption of subsidized products and in turn on food security and on the trade balance or not. Firstly, by analyzing the place of subsidized products in Tunisian economy. Then via the determination of limits of confinement in Tunisia specially trade deficit. Finally through the analysis of different problems given by confinement on food security and increased of percentage of cancer. According to our analysis, confinement of COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented economic, food security and financial crisis in Tunisia especially on the trade deficit witch is suffer before of various difficulty. The confinement can be considred a good solution for COVID but it have many limits on food security for Tunisian and on incresed of consumption of subsidized products in Tunisia.

Do Trade and Poverty Cause Each Other? Evidence from BRICS

Any two variables that are observable have one or the other form of relationship. This is particularly a statistical relationship. But for a statistical relationship to be cause and effect, a theoretical relationship is important. The theoretical relationship can be quantified to search for the evidence of causality. The possible outcomes can be no causality, unidirectional causality, or bidirectional causality. The present study aims at searching for evidence from BRICS countries regarding trade causing poverty or vice versa. Applied econometrics approach is used in the study. Panel econometric techniques have been employed to identify presence/absence of causality between the variables. Apart from this, the study also uses equality of means to identify whether trade and poverty proxies are symmetrical or asymmetrical. The study finds no causal relationship between trade and poverty for BRICS countries except that poverty headcount at $3.2 per day causes trade balance. With respect to the impact on the GINI index, lowest 10 percent income share and poverty headcount ratios are integral to reduce the inequality in the BRICS countries.

The Asymmetric Impacts of Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, the Exchange Rate, Institutional Quality, and Trade Balance on Tourist Arrivals in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL Model Approach

The nonlinear interaction of oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals in Bangladesh is scrutinized in this study. The technique utilized in this study, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), is a novel co-integrating strategy. The yearly time series data used in this study spanned 1995 to 2019. The NARDL bound test is performed to assess if variables like oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals are co-integrated. Oil prices and exchange rates, according to the findings, have a long-run negative and significant impact on tourism demand, whereas improvements in institutional quality are positively associated with tourist arrivals. Moreover, the study’s findings revealed a nonlinear kinship between the trade balance, inflation, and tourism demand across time. The asymmetric results obtained could enable Bangladeshi policymakers to make more precise decisions.

Mapowanie produktów polskiego eksportu produktów rolno spożywczych kierowanego do wybranych krajów Unii Europejskiej w 2020 roku

The article focuses on the search for growth prospects for Polish exports of agri-food products with economies belonging to the European Union and being the most important export markets for Poland in terms of agri-food products. Groups of these goods were identified that are characterized by positive and negative indicators of revealed comparative advantages and indicators of the trade balance. The study used a method based on the product mapping matrix.

DYNAMICS OF FOREIGN TRADE OF THE NORDIC COUNTRIES

The article aims to identify the main trends in the development of international trade in the Nordic Countries (Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland) over the past decade. To achieve it, the author sets three interrelated tasks. The first is to trace the general dynamics of exports and imports of goods, to identify common and special features. The second task is to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected commodity flows and the state of the trade balance. The third task is to analyze the state and dynamics of the foreign trade of these countries with China, which has significantly increased its share in world trade over the past decade. A comparison of the developments that have arisen in the entire international trade of the Nordic countries and in their trade with China may be of considerable research and practical interest. Based on the analysis, it was found that before the coronacrisis, all of Nordic Countries had a steady increase in the cost of imports except Finland, which is most dependent on Russia in this regard. The cost of exports grew more slowly in these countries, and in Norway, as a result of falling energy resource prices, it decreased significantly. The coronacrisis hit all the countries of Northern Europe, but Finland’s foreign trade suffered the most. The volume of trade with China in these countries has increased over the period under review. Even in 2020, there was an increase in almost all indicators. At the same time, the cost of exports to China grew faster than the cost of imports (with the exception of Finland). But the trade balance still remained negative for everyone except Sweden.