A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.20944/preprints202108.0111.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Luca Casini ◽

Marco Roccetti

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Analysis ◽

Linear Model ◽

Generalized Linear Model ◽

Piecewise Regression ◽

Increase Rate ◽

Before And After ◽

Case Rate ◽

European Football

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear within four weeks since the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. 17 out of 22 countries (77%) have had a changepoint 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship.

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A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship

10.20944/preprints202108.0111.v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Luca Casini ◽

Marco Roccetti

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Analysis ◽

Linear Model ◽

Generalized Linear Model ◽

Piecewise Regression ◽

Increase Rate ◽

Before And After ◽

Case Rate ◽

European Football

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear not later than two to three weeks after the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. For 17 out of 22 countries (77%) the changepoint came on average 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship

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A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship

Future Internet ◽

10.3390/fi13080212 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 212

Author(s):

Luca Casini ◽

Marco Roccetti

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Analysis ◽

Linear Model ◽

Generalized Linear Model ◽

Piecewise Regression ◽

Before And After ◽

Case Rate ◽

European Football

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place from 11 June to 11 July 2021. We studied the inversion in the decreased/increased rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson generalized linear model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear not later than two to three weeks after the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. For 17 out of 22 countries (77%) the changepoint came on average 14.97 days after their first match (95% CI 12.29–17.47). For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days (95% CI 11.81–29.42). After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days (95% CI 14.12–9.78). This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, which happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship.

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The effect of the Video Assistant Referee on referee’s decisions in the Spanish LaLiga

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching ◽

10.1177/1747954120980111 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 174795412098011

Author(s):

C Lago-Peñas ◽

MA Gómez ◽

R Pollard

Keyword(s):

Linear Model ◽

Generalized Linear Model ◽

Final Decision ◽

Association Football ◽

Before And After ◽

Speed Up ◽

Playing Time ◽

The Impact

Video Assistant Referee (VAR) was officially introduced into Association Football (Soccer) regulations in 2018. The aim of this study was to examine how the implementation of this technology has modified the play in elite soccer. The sample consists of all 760 matches played in the Spanish LaLiga during the seasons before and after the implementation of the VAR system. The following variables were recorded for each match and half: Fouls, Goals, Oﬀsides, Penalties, Playing time, Red cards and Yellow cards. Match statistics were retrieved from the website of “Whoscored” ( www.whoscored.com ). A Mann-Whitney U test and Generalized linear model were used to compare seasons before and after the implementation of VAR. Overall, the findings of the present study showed that the VAR system does not dramatically change the play in elite soccer. Nevertheless: (i) there was a significant decrease in the number of offside after the implementation of VAR; (ii) there was a slight increase in the number of minutes added to the playing time in the first and second half and the full game; and (iii) in most of 70% of all matches, the checks of the match-changing incidents did not lead to review. Moreover, the impact of the VAR system on the game decreases with VAR-only reviews, where the final decision was only based on the communication with the VAR, compared to matches with on-field reviews, where the main referee reviewed the footage on a monitor near the pitch. These findings suggest that to reduce time-wasting and speed up the match, the number of on-field reviews should be reduced.

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