Modeling the Momentum Effect in Stock Markets to Propose a New Portfolio Algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1016-1025
Author(s):  
Kazunori Umino ◽  
Takamasa Kikuchi ◽  
Masaaki Kunigami ◽  
Takashi Yamada ◽  
Takao Terano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
External Force ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Reconstruction Algorithm ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Relationship

This research has two objectives: (1) to model and analyze the momentum effect and (2) to propose a portfolio-reconstruction algorithm that uses the momentum effect to obtain excess return. The momentum effect tends to be present in the stock market and describes the phenomenon whereby rising (declining) stocks tend to continue to rise (decline). However, because existing research does not separate momentum effects from stock price fluctuations, it is not always possible to obtain an excess return when working with an unknown dataset that contains a momentum effect. In this research, we define a new external-force momentum-effect (EFME) model based on bias in stock price rises (declines). We prepared an artificial stock dataset that contained this momentum effect and constructed a portfolio with the proposed algorithm. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the EFME model and excess return and verify that excess return is obtained. Additionally, we confirmed that the proposed method yields higher excess return than the existing method when applied to artificial and real stock datasets.

Is disposition related to momentum in Chinese market?

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 600-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Liu Kong ◽  
Min Bai ◽  
Peiming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the framework of Prospect Theory and Mental Accounting proposed by Grinblatt and Han (2005) can be applied to analyzing the relationship between the disposition effect and momentum in the Chinese stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies the methodology proposed by Grinblatt and Han (2005). Findings – Using firm-level data, with a sample period from January 1998 to June 2013, the authors find evidence that the momentum effect in the Chinese stock market is not driven by the disposition effect, contradicting the findings of Grinblatt and Han (2005) concerning the US stock market. The discrepancies in the findings between the Chinese and US stock markets are robust and independent of sample periods. Research limitations/implications – The findings suggest that Grinblatt and Han’s model may not be applicable to the Chinese stock market. This is possibly because of the regulatory differences between the two stock markets and cross-national variation in investor behavior; in particular, the short-selling prohibition in the Chinese stock market and greater reference point adaptation to unrealized gains/losses among Chinese compared to Americans. Originality/value – This study provides evidence of the inapplicability of Grinblatt and Han’s model for the Chinese stock market, and shows the differences in the relationship between disposition effect and momentum between the Chinese and US stock markets.

Momentum Effect in Stock Market: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahid Rasheed ◽  
Umar Saood ◽  
Waqar Alam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Using Data

This study aims to examine the momentum effect presence in selected stocks of Pakistan stock market using data from Jan 2007 to Dec 2016. This study constructed the strategies includes docile, equal weighted and full rebalancing techniques. Data was extracted from the PSX – 100 index ranging from 2007 to 2016. STATA coding ASM software was used for calculating momentum portfolios, finally top 25 stocks were considered as a winner stocks and bottom 25 stocks were taken as a loser stocks. In conclusion, the results of the study found a strong momentum effect in Pakistan stock exchange PSX 100- index. As by results it has been observed that a substantial profit can earn by the investors or brokers in constructing a portfolio with a short formation period of three months and hold for 3, 6 and 12 months. There is hardly a study is present on the same topic on Pakistan Stock Exchange as preceding studies were only conducted on individual stock markets before merger of stock markets in Pakistan while this study leads the explanation of momentum phenomenon in new dimension i.e. Pakistan Stock Exchange. Keywords: Momentum, Portfolio, Winner Stocks, Loser Stocks

scholarly journals The Regime-Switching Behaviour of Exchange Rates and Frontier Stock Market Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Maud Korley ◽  
Evangelos Giouvris
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Var Model ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fx Market

Frontier markets have become increasingly investible, providing diversification opportunities; however, there is very little research (with conflicting results) on the relationship between Foreign Exchange (FX) and frontier stock markets. Understanding this relationship is important for both international investor and policymakers. The Markov-switching Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model is used to examine the relationship between FX and frontier stock markets. There are two distinct regimes in both the frontier stock market and the FX market: a low-volatility and a high-volatility regime. In contrast with emerging markets characterised by “high volatility/low return”, frontier stock markets provide high (positive) returns in the high-volatility regime. The high-volatility regime is less persistent than the low-volatility regime, contrary to conventional wisdom. The Markov Switching VAR model indicates that the relationship between the FX market and the stock market is regime-dependent. Changes in the stock market have a significant impact on the FX market during both normal (calm) and crisis (turbulent) periods. However, the reverse effect is weak or nonexistent. The stock-oriented model is the prevalent model for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Irrespective of the regime, there is no relationship between the stock market and the FX market in Cote d’Ivoire. Our results are robust in model selection and degree of comovement.

The Linkage between Chittagong Stock Market and Dhaka Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahidullah Tasfiq ◽  
◽  
Nasrin Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper aims at determining the relationship between the two domestic stock markets of Bangladesh – the Chittagong Stock Market (CSE) and the Dhaka Stock Market (DSE). The daily stock price indices that represent the performance of the two stock markets are collected. In order to find out the interdependent relationship, the Engle-Granger Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed in this paper. The main finding of this study is that both the stock markets are related in the long run. However, there is a one-way short-run effect from the DSE on the CSE market. The CSE market quickly responds to the shock in the DSE market. But, the DSE market is not responsive to the CSE market. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the shocks in the CSE market are explained by its own market. On the other hand, a small number of shocks in the DSE market are explained by the CSE market as well as its own market.

scholarly journals Importance of Proper Monetary Liquidity: Sustainable Development of the Housing and Stock Markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 8989
Author(s):  
Ming-Chu Chiang ◽  
I-Chun Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Capital Transfer ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Coefficient Method

In this paper, we infer that when no excess monetary liquidity exists, people tend to invest available capital in assets associated with a high return or low risk. However, when excess monetary liquidity occurs, capital may successively boost asset markets, and the stock market wealth is thus likely to spill into housing markets, resulting in bubbles in these two markets and therefore in the unsustainable development of both the housing and stock markets. This paper uses relevant data from the United Kingdom from January 1991 to March 2020 to verify whether excess monetary liquidity is a crucial factor determining the relationship between the housing and stock markets. Continuous and structural changes are found to exist between housing price and stock price returns. This paper employs the time-varying coefficient method for estimation and determines that the influence of stock price returns on housing returns is dynamic, and an asymmetrical effect can occur according to whether excess monetary liquidity exists. An excessively loose monetary policy increases asset prices and can thus easily result in a mutual rise in asset markets. By contrast, when excess monetary liquidity does not exist, capital transfer among markets can prevent autocorrelation during excessive market investment and thereby aggravate market imbalance.

LOCAL INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
XIAOJIAN TANG ◽  
STEPHANIE TSUI ◽  
KUANG-TA LO
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Privately Owned ◽  
Province Level

Based on province-level data on China’s local institutional environment from 2008 to 2014, we explore the relationship between the local institutional environment and stock price crash risk. We find that a stronger local institutional environment curbs stock price crash risk. Furthermore, we explore the relationship between local institutional environment and stock price crash risk for state-owned versus privately owned enterprises. We find that a stronger local institutional environment is more likely to curb stock price crash risk in state-owned enterprises than in privately owned enterprises. Our results are robust to additional tests. These findings suggest that it is necessary to accelerate the progress of local marketization in China to ensure the development of the stock market and a strong economy.

scholarly journals Opportunity or Crisis? Volatility and Leverage Effect in the World’s Largest Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amalendu Bhunia ◽  
Devrim Yaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between asset volatility and leverage for the three largest economies (based on purchasing power parity) in the world; US, China, and India. Collectively, these economies represent Int$56,269 billion of economic power, making it important to understand the relationship among these economies that provide valuable investment opportunities for investors. We focus on a volatile period in economic history starting in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis began. Using autoregressive models, we find that Chinese stock markets have the highest volatility among the three stock markets while the US stock market has the highest average returns. The Chinese market is less efficient than the US and Indian stock markets since the impact of new information takes longer to be reflected in stock prices. Our results show that the unconditional correlation among these stock markets is significant and positive although the correlation values are low in magnitude. We also find that past market volatility is a good indicator of future market volatility in our sample. The results show that positive stock market returns result in lower volatility compared to negative stock market returns. These results demonstrate that the largest economies of the world are highly integrated and investors should consider volatility and leverage besides returns when investing in these countries.

DCC Analysis of the Two Stock Market Returns by a Threshold Model: Empirical Study of the Stock Markets in Japan and Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 468-471 ◽  
pp. 181-185
Author(s):  
Wann Jyi Horng ◽  
Tien Chung Hu ◽  
Ming Chi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Result ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The empirical results show that the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and the bivariate asymmetric-IGARCH (1, 2) model is appropriate in evaluating the relationship of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets. The empirical result also indicates that the Japan and the Canada’s stock markets is a positive relation. The average estimation value of correlation coefficient equals to 0.2514, which implies that the two stock markets is synchronized influence. Besides, the empirical result also shows that the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets have an asymmetrical effect, and the variation risks of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock market returns also receives the influence of the good and bad news, respectively.

WHEN THE BUBBLE IS GOING TO BURST …

1999 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 285-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
JING CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Convertible Bond ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Clear Signal ◽  
Security Markets ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

There has been constant debate about the predictability of the security markets. We examine the relationship between the prices of a stock and its convertible bond during the Hong Kong stock market bubble of 1997 and its subsequent crash. We find that the price behavior of the share and the convertible bond not only gave a clear signal of the market reversal, but also the minimum range of the stock price change. This example offers concrete evidence that the market becomes highly predictable at times and gives us a chance to understand the relationship of the underlying stock and its derivatives during market bubbles.

scholarly journals The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market volatility: empirical evidence from the Vietnam stock market

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Kieu Minh Nguyen ◽  
Diep Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

The main target of this study is to measure the relationship of macroeconomic factors to the volatility of the stock market in Vietnam (through stock price VN-index). There are four factors including the consumer price index (measure of inflation), the exchange rate of USD/VND and money supply M2. Research shows that the stock price VN-Index has a positive relationship with the money supply M2 and the domestic gold price in long term. On the contrary, it has a negative relationship with the inflation while it does not have any connection to the exchange rate and stock price index. In short term, the current stock price index has proportional to the stock price index last month and inversely proportional to the exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Vietnam stock market converges to the equilibrium about 8 months (adjusted approximately 13.04% per month) to reach equilibrium in the long term.

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