DCC Analysis of the Two Stock Market Returns by a Threshold Model: Empirical Study of the Stock Markets in Japan and Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 468-471 ◽  
pp. 181-185
Author(s):  
Wann Jyi Horng ◽  
Tien Chung Hu ◽  
Ming Chi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Result ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The empirical results show that the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and the bivariate asymmetric-IGARCH (1, 2) model is appropriate in evaluating the relationship of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets. The empirical result also indicates that the Japan and the Canada’s stock markets is a positive relation. The average estimation value of correlation coefficient equals to 0.2514, which implies that the two stock markets is synchronized influence. Besides, the empirical result also shows that the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets have an asymmetrical effect, and the variation risks of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock market returns also receives the influence of the good and bad news, respectively.

A Model of Threshold for the Two Stock Market Returns: Study of the Stock Markets in Switzerland and Canada

2011 ◽  
Vol 403-408 ◽  
pp. 1228-1232
Author(s):  
Wann Jyi Horng ◽  
Ju Lan Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Result ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The empirical results show that the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and the bivariate asymmetric-IGARCH (1, 1) model is appropriate in evaluating the relationship of the Switzerland’s and the Canada’s stock markets. The empirical result also indicates that the Switzerland. and the Canada’s stock markets is a positive relation. The average estimation value of correlation coefficient equals to 0.4685, which implies that the two stock markets is synchronized influence. Besides, the empirical result also shows that the Switzerland and the Canada’s stock markets have an asymmetrical effect, and the variation risks of the Switzerland and the Canada’s stock market returns also receives the influence of the good and bad news.

scholarly journals Return Volatilities of U.S., U.K. and Australian Stock Markets on the Influence of Brazil Stock Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Yao-Cheng Tsai ◽  
Wann-Jyi Horng ◽  
Ming-Chi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Result ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Good News ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Double Threshold

This paper proposes a three variable’s double threshold-GRACH model, and uses this model to discuss U.S., U.K. and Australian stock return volatilities on the influence of the Brazil’s stock market. The empirical result demonstrates that the three variable’s double threshold-GARCH(1, 1) model is indeed appropriate, and also the response to the Brazil stock market has an asymmetrical effect. The empirical result also shows the different influence of the good news and the bad news on the eight kinds of the proposed model. Therefore, the information of U.S., U.K. and Australian stock return volatilities is able to affect the Brazil stock market returns’ volatility.

scholarly journals Opportunity or Crisis? Volatility and Leverage Effect in the World’s Largest Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amalendu Bhunia ◽  
Devrim Yaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between asset volatility and leverage for the three largest economies (based on purchasing power parity) in the world; US, China, and India. Collectively, these economies represent Int$56,269 billion of economic power, making it important to understand the relationship among these economies that provide valuable investment opportunities for investors. We focus on a volatile period in economic history starting in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis began. Using autoregressive models, we find that Chinese stock markets have the highest volatility among the three stock markets while the US stock market has the highest average returns. The Chinese market is less efficient than the US and Indian stock markets since the impact of new information takes longer to be reflected in stock prices. Our results show that the unconditional correlation among these stock markets is significant and positive although the correlation values are low in magnitude. We also find that past market volatility is a good indicator of future market volatility in our sample. The results show that positive stock market returns result in lower volatility compared to negative stock market returns. These results demonstrate that the largest economies of the world are highly integrated and investors should consider volatility and leverage besides returns when investing in these countries.

scholarly journals Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hira Irshad
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

IKONOMIKA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
M.N. Arshad ◽  
M.H. Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007) and second, after (2008-2012) the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ). Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

Time-varying synchronization and dynamic conditional correlation among the stock market returns of leading South American economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
South American ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
Auto Regressive

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to capture the pattern of return volatility and information spillover and the extent of conditional correlation among the stock markets of leading South American economies. It also examines the connectedness of market returns within the region. Design/methodology/approach The time series properties of weekly stock market returns of benchmark indices spanning from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2015 are analyzed. Using univariate auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic, generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic, and dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model approaches, the study finds evidence of returns and volatility linkages along with the degree of connectedness among the markets. Findings The findings of this study are consistent with increasing market connectedness among a group of leading South American economies. Stocks exhibit relatively fewer asymmetries in conditional correlations in addition to conditional volatility; yet, the asymmetry is relatively less apparent in integrated markets. The results demonstrate that co-movements are higher toward the end of the sample period than in the early phase. The stock markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru are closely and strongly connected within the region followed by Colombia, whereas Venezuela is least connected with the group. Practical implications The implication is that foreign investors may benefit from the reduction of the risk by adding the stocks to their investment portfolio. Originality/value The unique features of the paper include a large sample of national stock returns with updated time series data set that reveals the time series properties and empirical evidence on volatility testing. Unlike other studies, this paper uncovers the relation between the stock markets within the same region facing the same market condition.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

scholarly journals Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Gay, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
India And China

The relationship between share prices and macroeconomic variables is well documented for the United States and other major economies. However, what is the relationship between share prices and economic activity in emerging economies? The goal of this study is to investigate the time-series relationship between stock market index prices and the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and oil price for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. Although no significant relationship was found between respective exchange rate and oil price on the stock market index prices of either BRIC country, this may be due to the influence other domestic and international macroeconomic factors on stock market returns, warranting further research. Also, there was no significant relationship found between present and past stock market returns, suggesting the markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China exhibit the weak-form of market efficiency.

scholarly journals Financial contagion and 2016 oil crisis: a factor analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turki Maya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Component Structure ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Oil Crisis ◽  
Market Indexes ◽  
Variance Explained

<p>The paper tries to answer the following question: could the 2016 oil price crisis generate financial contagion among stock markets? </p> <p>The study period is composed of two sub-periods; a quiet one from 3/01/2012 to 01/08/2014 and turbulent one from 04/08/2014 to 25/05/2016. Raw data consists of daily international stock market indexes prices. The co-movements of the stock market returns are analyzed through a principal component analysis (PCA).</p> <p>The results revealed that the <em>KMO</em> index (Kaiser-Mayer-Olkin) is higher during the turbulent period than during the quiet one and that the proportion of variance explained by the first component during the turbulent period reached 35% while during the quiet one it represented only 26,7%.Regarding the component structure, for the turbulent period, three factors are able to explain the stock markets indexes movements while for the quiet period four factors are required. </p> <p>The findings give more credit to the thesis supporting the linkage between cross correlation and financial contagion and classify the 2016 oil crisis, as just a coupling episode and not an extreme one.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document