scholarly journals OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF METHODS FOR MODELING THE EPIDEMIC DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-19
Author(s):  
Daria Ivashchenko ◽  
Oleksandr Kutsenko
Keyword(s):  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Software Product ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
The Impact

Today, the urgent problem facing humanity is the problem of fighting epidemics and pandemics. One of the ways to solve this problem is the use of mathematical methods for predicting the pandemic process and assessing the impact of measures taken by health authorities to reduce the rate of development of the disease. Based on the analysis of a variety of information sources, the article considers the most effective approach to mathematical and computer modeling of the development of the epidemic on the basis of individually oriented and multi-agent approaches. The analysis of the problem of modeling the development of epidemics on the basis of a multi-agent approach, as well as the possibilities of predicting the course of the epidemiological process is carried out. An example of the structure of a multicomponent simulation model based on the generally accepted verbal model of the spread of viral diseases is given. As an example, the methodology of simulation agent-based modeling using the Any Logic software product of distribution processes 2019-nCoV is considered. The obtained averaged indicators confirmed the main hourly average periods of infection, which were obtained by purely statistical methods. Based on the analysis of published works, the possibilities of managing the development of the epidemic by influencing these factors have been investigated. A relatively simple method of mathematical modeling and forecasting of the epidemic situation has been proposed. It is shown that a timely and adequate forecast is a prerequisite for planning the structure, scale, timing of the necessary measures aimed at preventing epidemics and outbreaks of disease, as well as reducing and eliminating their negative consequences. Keywords: agent simulation, epidemic, math modeling, pandemic, prognostication, simulation.

Pricing and Bundling Strategies for Competing Mobile Phone Supply Chains With Network Externality

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-77
Author(s):  
Yunpeng Yue ◽  
Tiaojun Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Network Externality ◽  
Consumer Heterogeneity ◽  
Telecommunication Services ◽  
Price Subsidy ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Total Profit ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
The Impact

In mobile phone supply chains, consumers can choose handsets and telecommunication services as a bundled package or buy handsets and services independently. This article develops a multi-agent simulation model to explore price, subsidy and bundling decisions for competing mobile phone supply chains with network externality, where each chain includes one mobile phone manufacturer and one service operator. There are two bundling strategies: free or bundled. The results indicate that: 1) if the impact of network externality is not too small, then competitive differentiation can be formed when one party adopts a bundled one. If bundled scenario is adopted by both, the total profit is reduced. Consequently, both service operators and manufacturers choose (accept) different bundling strategies; 2) network externality and consumer heterogeneity both increase the advantage of bundled scenario in the asymmetric setting; 3) when the effect of network externality is sufficiently small, free scenario is dominant; and 4) consumer heterogeneity can alleviate competition in the symmetric settings.

An Application of Multi-Agent Simulation to Policy Appraisal in the Criminal Justice System

2011 ◽  
pp. 228-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seán Boyle ◽  
Stephen Guerin ◽  
Daniel Kunkle
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Policy Appraisal ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
The Impact

This chapter reports on a multi-agent approach to the construction of a model of the English criminal justice system. The approach is an integration of model-building with ways of enabling people to engage in strategic policy making and take into account the complex interactions of the criminal justice system. From the workings of the police to court procedures to prisons, decisions in one area of the criminal justice system can be crucial in determining what happens in another area. The purpose was to allow assessment of the impact across the whole justice system of a variety of policies.

scholarly journals Impact of Social Networks on Diffusion of Products

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-50
Author(s):  
Yudai Arai ◽  
Tomoko Kajiyama ◽  
Noritomo Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Consumer Behaviour ◽  
Advertising Budget ◽  
The World ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

In light of the rapid growth of social networks around the world, this study analyses the impact of social networks on the diffusion of products and demonstrates the effective way to diffuse products in the society where social networks play an important role. We construct a consumer behaviour model by multi-agent simulation taking the movie market as an example. After validating it by using data from 13 US movies, we conduct simulations. Our simulation results show that the impact of social networks on the diffusion differs according to the customers’ expectations and evaluation for a movie. We also demonstrate the effective weekly advertising budget allocations corresponding to the types of movies. We find that the difference of weekly advertising budget allocations gives greater impact on the diffusion with the growth of social networks. This paper provides firm’s managers with important suggestions for diffusion strategy considering the impact of social networks.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of User Preferences on Shared Autonomous Vehicle Modal Split: A Multi-Agent Simulation Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Kamel ◽  
Reza Vosooghi ◽  
Jakob Puchinger ◽  
Feirouz Ksontini ◽  
Göknur Sirin
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
User Preferences ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Modal Split ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
The Impact
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